Posted:
#26
awesome...we have almost all the same plays.. Giants and under. straight teased and parlayed damn son lets go
0
XFL Rejects SB XLVI (w/ full write-up and I do mean full)
Posted:
#27
you and i could not be more on the same page... read most of your write-up and there is nothing i disagree with, and nothing i see in a different light...
one thing i didn't see in your write-up, but might have missed... the Giants road to the Super Bowl as compared to the Pats...
Giants beat the Falcons, Packers and 49ers, beating the latter two teams on the road... Packers and 49ers were 2 of the 3 bets teams in the NFL this year (the other being the Saints)... that's right! the 3 best teams in the NFL this year all came from the NFC... so not only do the Giants represent the FAR SUPERIOR conference in this game, but they also knocked off 2 of the 3 elite teams, both times on the road, and in the case of the Packers, in resounding fashion...
Pats on the other hand, got a 1st round bye, and then basically got a 2nd round bye, when they drew the Broncos, who backed into the playoffs, and represented the 2nd worst team in the playoffs (slightly ahead of the Bengals)... the AFC was just nothing short of pathetic this year, and the Pats are the beneficiary of that... they didn't defeat a single team with a winning record until beating the Ravens, in a game that i felt the Ravens out-played them, and should have won...
the Giants are so battle-tested in this game, as compared to the Pats, who have just had it so easy the past 2 months to get to this point...
combine that with the fact that the Giants are the more physical defense, and also the fact that the Giants have the best WR corps in football, and i think you have a situation where, of course, the better team is the underdog...
but like you said, the books could never make the Pats dogs in this game... just no way! they don't care who the better team is... they care who the majority of people think the better team is, and that is the Pats (13-3, as opposed to the Giants at 9-7)...
i pounced on the Giants (+3) at +105 and the under at 55.5... i feel like the worst case scenario is a 1 point loss on the side, and a 1.5 point loss on the total... whereas the best case scenarios have me winning by as many as 13-14 points in both cases... i'll take those odds any day of the week...
one thing i didn't see in your write-up, but might have missed... the Giants road to the Super Bowl as compared to the Pats...
Giants beat the Falcons, Packers and 49ers, beating the latter two teams on the road... Packers and 49ers were 2 of the 3 bets teams in the NFL this year (the other being the Saints)... that's right! the 3 best teams in the NFL this year all came from the NFC... so not only do the Giants represent the FAR SUPERIOR conference in this game, but they also knocked off 2 of the 3 elite teams, both times on the road, and in the case of the Packers, in resounding fashion...
Pats on the other hand, got a 1st round bye, and then basically got a 2nd round bye, when they drew the Broncos, who backed into the playoffs, and represented the 2nd worst team in the playoffs (slightly ahead of the Bengals)... the AFC was just nothing short of pathetic this year, and the Pats are the beneficiary of that... they didn't defeat a single team with a winning record until beating the Ravens, in a game that i felt the Ravens out-played them, and should have won...
the Giants are so battle-tested in this game, as compared to the Pats, who have just had it so easy the past 2 months to get to this point...
combine that with the fact that the Giants are the more physical defense, and also the fact that the Giants have the best WR corps in football, and i think you have a situation where, of course, the better team is the underdog...
but like you said, the books could never make the Pats dogs in this game... just no way! they don't care who the better team is... they care who the majority of people think the better team is, and that is the Pats (13-3, as opposed to the Giants at 9-7)...
i pounced on the Giants (+3) at +105 and the under at 55.5... i feel like the worst case scenario is a 1 point loss on the side, and a 1.5 point loss on the total... whereas the best case scenarios have me winning by as many as 13-14 points in both cases... i'll take those odds any day of the week...
0
Posted:
#30
I love a good write up! great read bro! I do disagree tho and believe that the Pats will win this game.
4 things really stand out to me:
1.This is a huge revenge game for the Pats
2.The Giants over match the Pats and that is exactly how the Pats like it
3.The Giants have been playing elimination football for a long time and that will catch up to them, they really should have lost against SF 2 weeks ago. What a joke that game was...
4.The spread was at NE-2 and all the media coverage has been on the NYG and how they over match the Pats and still the spread went to -3 NE. The Sharps know not to bet against NE.
4 things really stand out to me:
1.This is a huge revenge game for the Pats
2.The Giants over match the Pats and that is exactly how the Pats like it
3.The Giants have been playing elimination football for a long time and that will catch up to them, they really should have lost against SF 2 weeks ago. What a joke that game was...
4.The spread was at NE-2 and all the media coverage has been on the NYG and how they over match the Pats and still the spread went to -3 NE. The Sharps know not to bet against NE.
0
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by xflrejects:
PLAYS
NYG +4 ½ -130 10 units (I bought up this early as I do not see Pats winning by more than 3-4 worse case scenario)
NYG ML +130 4 units
NYG –3 ½ +225 2 units (alternate line play)
UNDER 55.5 4 units (I see this game hitting 44-52 points. Last 15 SB’s have seen only 4 hit this total and 2 of those hit 56 exactly. 11 of the last 15 on carpet have gone UNDER. I feel this 2nd time around sees defences imposing their will.
PARLAY: NYG +3/UNDER 55.5 (2 units to win approx. 6 units)
TEASER: NYG +9/UNDER 61 –120 (1.25 units)
FUTURES: $250 to win $5000 (20:1) NYG to win SB XLVI
PROPS: Which ½ has more scoring. 2nd H +OT –110 (2 units) {hit 11 X in last 13 years}
Game ends by exactly a 3pt. margin +325 (1 unit)
No team scores 3X in a row (converts excluded) –140 (1 unit)
MVP SB XLVI
Cruz +800 (1 unit)
Nicks +1200 (.7 unit) (before you think either is a longshot the SB MVP has been a WR 3 of the last 7 years. As the league becomes more pass happy ie. Almost 5 QB’s went for more than 5000 yards this year someone is on the other end of those balls. )
Note: I’m not a high roller and like many of you I am so frickin’ tired of hearing plays like G.O.E. (Game of the Epoch) FOR A GAZILLION UNITS. My units are $250 ea. U.S. currency.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION:
NYG 28 NE 24 (17)
I can envision 30-17 NYG
Outstanding writeup and picks.
0
Posted:
#42
vgpop- always loved your insight brother
696969-KUDOS!
metalbill-
Insight-well done.
cpsn-much love.
europa-props all around
promark-no just pigskin
dillon-thank you
bigkap-great game!
zeus-I do appreciate you as I believe you were the only Pats backer to pop in and we did welcome that
GREAT FINISH TO ONE HELLUVA PLAYOFFS!
TO ALL PATS FANS IT WAS ONE HECK OF A CLOSE GAME THAT SHOWED BOTH WERE VERY WORTHY REGARDLESS OF ALL THE TALK TO THE CONTRARY. I THINK WE CAN ALL AGREE WE'D LOVE TO SEE THESE TWO MATCH UP AGAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
KUDOS TO ALL OF YOU WHOM HIT YOUR PLAYS AND CAME OUT AHEAD!!
0
Awesome
Posted:
#50
Europa,
True Dat True Dat my good brother.
And it wasn't easy so I immediately went to a decent 24 hr. cardiologist in the 'hood on the Sunday night when the championship games culminated and had him cut out my heart and replace it with a Jarvik-7 for these last 2 weeks so it wouldn't interfere with my betting strategies.
0
Hot Forum Topics
