Explained above in post 25, but I actually agree with you.
For the Ravens to cover - they need to hold the Bengals to <24. I think they have a decent chance to do it.
As a basic principle... I wish I would have taken ANY team before ANY line move because you have instant options available to you.
In the case of this one - yes - of course.
I am running out of time right now... But will get back to this tomorrow....
Basically - every single stat points to the Giants. Every single narrative points to them also. I cannot make a case to bet the Vikings.
Dont misinterpret that as saying the Vikings CANT win or cover. I just cant make the case. Interested to hear if you can.
Van, you've been smokin all season, and I hesitate to disagree. But I'm struck by the coaching mismatch between Staley of the Chargers and Pederson of the Jags. Staley made the dumbest coaching move this year last week by playing his starters. And that's saying something because I watched Nathaniel Can't Hackett coach the Broncos this year. OTOH Pederson has coached up Lawrence into playing like the top draft choice that he was. I think coaching really matters in the playoffs.
copy that lol. def great advice!
thank you so much for letting me know
Well, so my analysis is kind of simple: I feel like there is overstated confidence in the NYG. This is a team that is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games (granted their final loss to PHI shouldnt count) but still, this is a mediocre team that had a nice run in the beginning and middle of the season. On the other hand MIN is a very good home team with an 8-1 record and a victory margin of ~5.5 in home games this year. The sole loss at home on the year for MIN was when they got taken apart by DAL, 40-3. But from a situations perspective that 40-3 game was not surprising as it was a classic 'let down' after the emotional win in BUF the week before. Coincidentally, the non-cover, straight up victory of MIN over NYG at home in Week 16 was also immediately after the huge comeback game against IND - my point being that MIN had a bit of a letdown game against NYG and still won. I feel like there wont be a let down this week and a focused MIN team that plays excellent at home, led by a mediocre to decent QB in cousins is going be better than a marginal NYG team on the road led by a pedestrian QB in Jones. My analysis is heavily bolstered by my perception that there is a lot of public support on NYG as road dogs and Im just not seeing the justification.
@vanzack
Specifically - Jax passing has been carrying them - and they have struggled to run. The Chargers weakness is their run defense
Van, not disagreeing at all, but I see the Bolts weakness is their Run Offense on the road. Because of this it will be very reasonable to predict Jax to stuff the Bolts run and make them completely one dimensional. Glad to see you on Big Blue
Van, my book gives you -105 on all games up to a $500 bet. Sounds just as good as Lowvig over a season of betting.
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