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Why People Get Steamrolled in Sports Gambling

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Legend
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Posted: #76
Tafter---you not doing the NHL thing this year?  Or not enough games in yet?
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

Tafter---you not doing the NHL thing this year?  Or not enough games in yet?


I'm not sure yet.  I'm still researching regression angles, but I haven't found much of anything that works. I've found that the 9 goal swing works to fade a team that was on the winning side of that play, but it doesn't come up too much.  
 
Legend
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Posted: #78
Oh? Thought the fading teams after back-back blowouts etc. did pretty well?
 
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Posted: #79
Thought you were applying some of that here with NFL?
 
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Posted: #80
Hey man, Found this to be a very interesting read. I was just wondering though, would the Titans also be one of your plays then? Thanks and BOL to you on your Sunday games!




 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by Nilshu:

Hey man, Found this to be a very interesting read. I was just wondering though, would the Titans also be one of your plays then? Thanks and BOL to you on your Sunday games!






Tennessee is coming off of two losses, so it's attractive, but the team their playing is coming of an even worse loss.  In fact, going back to 1990, teams off of 40 point losses or worse, have a winning record ATS.  Look at Orange crushes posts in this thread.  This is no play for me. 

Thanks for reading and responding.

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

Thought you were applying some of that here with NFL?


I've tried NHL fades in back to back situations, but I don't think I used extreme enough cases.  The NHL just may be a completely different animal. 
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:



win margin for 2, offensive points for 3, and lowest defensive points for 3. 

This system has us fading more teams than you'd think.  It's not just NE and GB every week.  You'd be surprised as I'll post each week.


This week's fades are:  KC, NO, & SF

This week's bounce backs are:  DET & BALT

Unders:  WAS / BUFF Under 46
             MIN / CAR Under 47.5

Overs:  JAX / HOU Over 40.5

One Momentum play:  NE -3 because they have the SMALLEST win margin of any team on a streak.  This is not my favorite play; however, because Pitt's on a streak and is 2nd to last in win margin behind NE.   This is a small play.  



So 9 plays that fit your criteria lets see how they do!!BOL


You know my 6 plays they have already been locked in days ago!

NE-2.5
NYG -9.5
Buff -4.5
SF -9
Cinci -1
Philly -3
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Nilshu:

Hey man, Found this to be a very interesting read. I was just wondering though, would the Titans also be one of your plays then? Thanks and BOL to you on your Sunday games!






Also Indy fits the super system which is 41-1 ATS
 
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Posted: #85

Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

how does a team do after losing by 30 in one game?

Just reviewing. My bad I calculated how teams do after they WON by 30 or 40. Nonetheless, we found some solid angles on that side. I will calculate how teams do after LOSING by 30 or 40, shortly.

 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by OrangeCrush07:

Just reviewing. My bad I calculated how teams do after they WON by 30 or 40. Nonetheless, we found some solid angles on that side. I will calculate how teams do after LOSING by 30 or 40, shortly.




Cool would like to see those stats also!!
 
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Posted: #87


Where can we go to find these stats?

also, Orange Crush, is there a site that we can see NFL TO's from week to week?

 
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Posted: #88

How teams do in thier next game after losing by 40 or more points, with normal rest.

Since 1989......

Overall: 16-12 ATS (2-0 this year)

Home teams: 13-5 ATS (1-0 this year)

Road teams: 3-7 ATS

Favs: 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS (2009 last play)

Dogs: 9-8 ATS (2-0 this year)

30 or more coming up

 

 
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Posted: #89

How teams do in thier next game after losing by over 30, with normal rest.

Since 1989......

Overall: 104-74-6 ATS (58.4%)

Home teams: 60-42-4 ATS (58.8%)

Road teams: 44-32-2 ATS (57.8%)

Favs: 26-19-1 ATS (57.7%)

Dogs: 78-51-5 ATS (60.4%)

DD Dogs: 13-3-1 ATS (since 2005)

 
Prospect
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Last year, someone posted a play that got me using these plays each week. 

He said FADE any team that scores 30 points or more and gives up 12 or less for TWO straight games. 

This system went 3 - 0 last year, and had been said to be a lifetime 78% winner.


Whoever gave you this, it absolutley correct!

In this situation, these teams are 9-28 ATS since 1991. And since beginning of the 1999 season these teams are 4-20 ATS!! The situtation went 4-0 last year with the NE/NYJ Div game. Great FADE situation!

 
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Posted: #91

Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:



Where can we go to find these stats?

also, Orange Crush, is there a site that we can see NFL TO's from week to week?

tafter, if you have a particular angle regarding TO's or anything else that you want checked into let me know.

OC

 

 
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Posted: #92
Nice Orange!!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:



What plays do you like this week to win $ now then?




Betting vs those 2 teams is now 11-0-1  so thats been good. Ill bet vs the Rams every single week

I like the Ravens off their god awful effort. I know its a lot of juice but they should manhandle the Cards at home off of that embarrassment on MNF
 
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Posted: #94
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:



Betting vs those 2 teams is now 11-0-1  so thats been good. Ill bet vs the Rams every single week

I like the Ravens off their god awful effort. I know its a lot of juice but they should manhandle the Cards at home off of that embarrassment on MNF


agreed.  Ravens as a good team to bounceback


who are you fading this week just for the sake of fading?

 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by OrangeCrush07:

tafter, if you have a particular angle regarding TO's or anything else that you want checked into let me know.

OC

 



teams that turn the ball over 4 or more times in their previous game

teams on a two game win streak or more that less have a win margin of 10 or less total for their previous 2 games.

Can you look up NHL also?
 


 
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Posted: #97
*teams on a two game win streak or more that have won their previous two games by a total of 10 or less


 
Prospect
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Posted: #98
I'd really say each game is situational. I predicted that the Jags would cover or win. Watch out for the colts vs. Titans this week.

Don't be surprised.
 
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Posted: #99
We have already said the Colts fall into a couple of trends here!!
 
 
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Posted: #100
How about how teams do after they've had two consecutive Turnover Free games? 

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