Why People Get Steamrolled in Sports Gambling

MJ

I've enjoyed the conversation.  Thanks. 


Who fits your off the bye Fav's?  Do they coincide with any of mine?

The only one's I'd play on your FAV's off a BYE week would be:

BUFF

NE

NYG

PHI


I'm on the other side of SF, but thanks for the plays.  I'll keep track of them and be rooting for you.

Cincy is one also!!Yes been a good conversation and gave me some info to look at!Thx

After looking at all of these plays, and I usually only look for regression spots, but if I was tracking momentum, I'd probably play and NFL game like this:

Bet on any team with a 2 or more win streak that has the SMALLEST win margin over it's last two games. 

This play would mimic the play a favorite who won the previous week, but didn't cover. 

Oddly, enough that play would be NE.

I'm going to hop on board for that one game. 

New England -3 

i LIKE THIS SYSTEM, KEEP POSTING PLAYS. sorry for the caps

Team that have won B2B games by are margin of 25 points or more with 6 day rest are 8-24 ATS since 1990 in their next game. On the road they are 2-13 ATS.

gl

 

How does a team do after winning by 40 or more for 1 game?

how does a team do after losing by 30 in one game?

Teams that won by 40 or more are 13-11-2 ATS since 1989 (6 days rest)

Teams that won by 30 or more are 93-104-5 ATS since 1989 (6 days rest)

Home Favs that won by 30 or more are 32-42-1 ATS since 1989 (6 days rest)

Teams that won by 30 or more and not more than 40 are 81-94-3 ATS since 1989 (6 days rest)

Home favs that won by 30 or more and not more than 40 are 26-38-1 ATS since 1989 (6 days rest)

 

gl

Teams that won by 30 or more and not more than 40 on the road are 19-32-1 ATS since 1990 (6 days rest)

DD Favs that won by 30 or more and not more than 40 on the road are 4-10 ATS since 1992 (6 days rest)

 

gl

Teams that were shut out, with 6 days rest are 65-48-4 ATS since 1989 in their next game.

Road teams that were shut out, with 6 days rest are 33-17 ATS since 1989 in their next game. (43-26 ATS w/o rest parameter)

Road NFC teams that were shut out, with 6 days rest are 16-5 ATS since 1989 in their next game.

You don't make much sense:

Summary #4
Jacksonville has sucked so far this year, and has a rookie quarterback

Jax just covered against Pitt on the road- everyone knows they are a much better team at home.

Summary #5
Carson Palmers going to Oakland!  They have a reliable quarterback now.  Woohoo!

Oakland gets shut-out.

Everyone knew that Carson wasn't suppose to play in that game so if you are still ignorant enough to take Raiders with Kyle then you got what was coming.

What you right IS NOT TRUE because :

If you had followed GB EVERY WEEK YOU WOULD BE 5-2

If you had followed NE EVERY WEEK YOU WOULD BE 4-2

If you had faded MIAMI EVERY WEEK YOU WOULD BE 5-0

If you had faded STL EVERY WEEK YOU WOULD BE 6-0

So thats a total of 20-4

If you had only jumped on after the favs didn't cover or the dogs had a really good game you obviously wouldn't be up so far.

tafter12 great thread you make a lot of good points.Also betting these games close to kickoff will get you good value as most public bettors will be wagering on the more obvious choice.

Bet the House......

you are not reading what I'm saying, and what I'm not saying.


What I've said.....
Fade teams that win by a lot BACK TO BACK. 
Yes GB has covered their games, but I wouldn't have been fading them everytime.  Also, The wins you'd have would outweigh the losses doing this across the board in the NFL. 

I didn't say to bet on STL every week.  I've said to fade the teams that have HUGE performances in back to back games. 

These kinds of posts KILL people in the 2nd half of the season.


If you bet 2 - 6 or less teams for the 2nd half ATS and fade 6 - 2 or better for the 2nd half, you'll kick ass as the money that people muster up the courage to wager on SUMMARIES rather than PREDICTIONS GET Rolled!!!!

Yes they look at LAST WEEK and talk about LAST WEEK

Only thing that matters it THIS WEEK.

It won't go to "predictions" majority of the time.

No you also said fade the teams that are in the top 3  winning margins and points the previous 2 weeks which means you would be fading GB and NE alot!!And that was my point above GB was in the top like 4 straight weeks and thats how you get caught in a good teams streak like i said!!

why would I wait until miami and stl cover a spread when i can bet against them every week and win my $ now?

1.  Too many variables and restrictions on your plays which basically means no play is a good play.

2.  An admitted losing bettor telling us to follow his system.  If anything, you should be advising us to fade you. 

Tafter---you not doing the NHL thing this year?  Or not enough games in yet?

i get what your saying, but simply fading hot teams will not work.  if you remember when the patriots had their undefeated season, they covered 8 times in a row and went over the total 7 of those 8.... at what point would you have started betting against them... week four or week five? you wouldve your ass.  this does IN THEORY make sense, as vegas wants your money and they want the bets placed on streaky teams, but i dont think that just fading every team that you think is over rated or pounding teams that are under-rated will work out.  the books will spank you.

this week ive been working on a new bet theory that kind of follows this pattern.  it's based on the coin flip principle, and if youve ever taken statistics im sure youve done this experiment.
say you flip a coin 100 times, the principle says that eventually the the ratio of heads : tails will work its way back to 50 :50 in the end, no matter how skewed it is in the beginning of the experiment.

using this i went back through four years of spreads, and am starting to find the same principle at work.  teams that have hot streaks ATS eventually cool down, and teams that have cold streaks ATS usually start covering, and most teams end up covering between 40-60% of the time.

IM STILL WORKING ON THIS SYSTEM
But here a little bit about how it goes
1.  no bets are place before week 4
    - this way you have a sample size of to base your math.
2. teams that have covered less than 25% or more than 75% of their games are eligable for bets
3.  bets are placed in a pyramid style over 3 games at the most. (start with $50)
- 1st game bet $50...if loss 2nd game bet 100+lost juice...if loss    3rd game bet 200 + lost juice
-  YES I KNOW THIS IS A DANGEROUS WAY OF BETTING THATS WHY IM WORKING ON THIS SYSTEM TO BE AS PERFECT AS POSSIBLE. you need a 7-1 win ratio just to break even
4.  no bets should be started week 16 or 17,because you wont be able to finish the pyramid

THE IMPORTANT PART
After the available teams are narrowed down in step 2, the other stat that im looking at is the redzone offense and defense.  if a team has covered their first 4 games in a row, but their rdzone O scores a td 75% of the time, and their rdzone D stops td's 75%, then i would not start a pyramid bet against that team (ex 2007 patriots). i want to look for teams that are more in the 40-60% range of red zone stats.  im not finished with all the research yet, and for all i know it might not even be worth it.  but im gonna try and finish up all the math before the start of week 8 so i can put it to the real test
please let me know what you think... all comments

what are your picks for this weekend?
I've posted mine, and I'll keep posting them just to show people that it works. 

win margin for 2, offensive points for 3, and lowest defensive points for 3. 

This system has us fading more teams than you'd think.  It's not just NE and GB every week.  You'd be surprised as I'll post each week.


This week's fades are:  KC, NO, & SF

This week's bounce backs are:  DET & BALT

Unders:  WAS / BUFF Under 46
             MIN / CAR Under 47.5

Overs:  JAX / HOU Over 40.5

One Momentum play:  NE -3 because they have the SMALLEST win margin of any team on a streak.  This is not my favorite play; however, because Pitt's on a streak and is 2nd to last in win margin behind NE.   This is a small play.  

What plays do you like this week to win $ now then?