All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Why People Get Steamrolled in Sports Gambling

Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 7488
Posts: 107
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #1
One of the reasons many of us get rolled in this very difficult arena of sports betting is because we, and I don't do this anymore, so I'll stop saying we, and start saying the masses, is because the masses tend to make bets based on what's already happened.  They bet summaries rather than predictions. 

Summary #1 GB
GB has steamrolled most of their opponents this year and covered many of spreads. 

Summary #2 MINN
Minnesota has played horrific thus far, and is having QB issues.

Minnesota Covers



Summary #3
Baltimore has been tearing it up as of late, and they look like a super bowl contender now that they have an offense to go along with their known effective defense. 

Summary #4
Jacksonville has sucked so far this year, and has a rookie quarterback. 

Jacksonville Covers easily and wins Straight Up.



Summary #5
Carson Palmers going to Oakland!  They have a reliable quarterback now.  Woohoo!

Oakland gets shut-out.



What's my point? 

My point, if you haven't figured it out yet is simple.  If you want to bet GB, NO, SF, NE, and other top teams in a particular season, Wait until they don't cover a spread in one week and hop on board the next. 

Want to fade MIA, STL, or other weak teams?  Wait until they win SU or at least cover a spread, then fade them in the next week. 


Looking to take an OVER?  Wait until two defensive teams are coming off of low scoring games.

Looking to take an Under?  Visa - versa people. 

I've made many mistakes trying to beat this, and these are some of the strategies that will work long term. 

Now let's summarize WEEK 8, and the potential danger spots.

"NO just won by 50+ points!"
stay away or go the other way

"Tennessee go rolled by 34 points and only scored 7."
Fading them would be a summary, not a prediction.

"Oakland just got shut out."
Fading them would be a summary, not a prediction.

"Seattle and Cleveland can't score.  I'll take the under in their next game."
Taking the under would be a summary, not a prediction.


 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #2
BTW, I just realized that I still do this.  I took Wisconsin this past week.

I'm still part of the we on this. I've made progress in this regard, but I'm still not perfect!


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 447
Posted: #3
SHhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Vegas will hear you
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

One of the reasons many of us get rolled in this very difficult arena of sports betting is because we, and I don't do this anymore, so I'll stop saying we, and start saying the masses, is because the masses tend to make bets based on what's already happened.  They bet summaries rather than predictions. 

Summary #1 GB
GB has steamrolled most of their opponents this year and covered many of spreads. 

Summary #2 MINN
Minnesota has played horrific thus far, and is having QB issues.

Minnesota Covers



Summary #3
Baltimore has been tearing it up as of late, and they look like a super bowl contender now that they have an offense to go along with their known effective defense. 

Summary #4
Jacksonville has sucked so far this year, and has a rookie quarterback. 

Jacksonville Covers easily and wins Straight Up.



Summary #5
Carson Palmers going to Oakland!  They have a reliable quarterback now.  Woohoo!

Oakland gets shut-out.



What's my point? 

My point, if you haven't figured it out yet is simple.  If you want to bet GB, NO, SF, NE, and other top teams in a particular season, Wait until they don't cover a spread in one week and hop on board the next. 

Want to fade MIA, STL, or other weak teams?  Wait until they win SU or at least cover a spread, then fade them in the next week. 


Looking to take an OVER?  Wait until two defensive teams are coming off of low scoring games.

Looking to take an Under?  Visa - versa people. 

I've made many mistakes trying to beat this, and these are some of the strategies that will work long term. 

Now let's summarize WEEK 8, and the potential danger spots.

"NO just won by 50+ points!"
stay away or go the other way

"Tennessee go rolled by 34 points and only scored 7."
Fading them would be a summary, not a prediction.

"Oakland just got shut out."
Fading them would be a summary, not a prediction.

"Seattle and Cleveland can't score.  I'll take the under in their next game."
Taking the under would be a summary, not a prediction.





It doesnt always work like above either.You just picked the games out it happend  that way.GB You could have said the same thing the week and they covered!!Week b4 and they covered and the week b4 that.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 1193
Posted: #5
Nice points you made!....It's almost like if it sounds too good to be true etc...Eh?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #6
Sure what happend the week b4 means nothing but also happends as many times as it doesnt why do you think there are streaks.Thye way you expalin it there are no streaks lol
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Sure what happend the week b4 means nothing but also happends as many times as it doesnt why do you think there are streaks.Thye way you expalin it there are no streaks lol


You make it sound like at steak will never end?   lol

last year, most people thought that NE would beat NYJ in the playoffs.  If you look at their two previous games, they won by way too much.  If you look at SD against Cincy last year, you'll see the same situation occurring.  We all thought NE would cover against a rookie GB quarterback also.  What happened after Oakland scored 60 points in one game last year?  the next week they lost ATS.

I'm not saying a streak is impossible, I'm saying if the scores are blowout in succession, or if a team scores too many in a 3 game period, then fade them. 

we'd be better off fading teams that steamroll in back to back weeks, and playing on teams that got rolled in their previous week. 

Your streak plays would be better if the team won but didn't cover in their previous week or two. 


I'd say the best plays using this theory would be to

BET ON: as the other team is more likely to regress
STL
CLE

BET ON: as these teams are likely to bounce back
SD
BALT










 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #8
Dude everyone knows bet with the streak you can win INFINITE and lose ONCE bet against the streak you can only win ONCE and LOSE INFINITE!

Your example above is a losing way of betting!I bet you were one of the ones that chased Philly for 5 games "Oh they cant get destroyed again"How about fading GB last week against the RAMS same thing this week vs Minn.

You are picking out 2 games

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #9
Lets see 2 weeks ago the Bears win in a big blowout 39-10 then beat Tampa.The Jets win handily on mon 24-6 vs Miami then beat SD.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Dude everyone knows bet with the streak you can win INFINITE and lose ONCE bet against the streak you can only win ONCE and LOSE INFINITE!

Your example above is a losing way of betting!I bet you were one of the ones that chased Philly for 5 games "Oh they cant get destroyed again"How about fading GB last week against the RAMS same thing this week vs Minn.

You are picking out 2 games



MJ,

I'm talking about fading teams after they WIN BIG for TWO consecutive games.  25 or more points in each. 

For one game, the win margin would have to be over 40.


 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #11
Back test this....

bet on any team that got shut out the week before. 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Dude everyone knows bet with the streak you can win INFINITE and lose ONCE bet against the streak you can only win ONCE and LOSE INFINITE!

Your example above is a losing way of betting!I bet you were one of the ones that chased Philly for 5 games "Oh they cant get destroyed again"How about fading GB last week against the RAMS same thing this week vs Minn.

You are picking out 2 games



I have yet to place a wager on Philadelphia this year. So, no you're wrong about that. 

I'm not talking about betting a team that's "due" to win; I'm talking about fading a team that's played a little to perfect over their last two games.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:



MJ,

I'm talking about fading teams after they WIN BIG for TWO consecutive games.  25 or more points in each. 

For one game, the win margin would have to be over 40.




I like the back to back winning by 25 or more then fade them that is an already proven system but your 1 st post doesnt say that!!

 You picked out GB,bALT RIGHT AT THE TIME THEY LOSE WHEN THE WEEK B4 you should have been fading them against the Rams if your fading them against Minn same thing with Balty.You just dont pick the exact week they lose or dont cover 1 out 4 weeks or so
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #14
Ok Tafter,
What do you see this week then .The palys you would make with your theory??
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 362
Posted: #15
so your saying take baltimore this week -14 or what ever it is against Arizona? after they looked like sick dogs on MNF
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #16
And btw your Under and Over thing taking the opposite of what happend in the previous will not work
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #17
Going into week 7, I faded GB because they were #1 in win margin over their last two weeks.  Guess who they were tied with? 

Baltimore; so I faded them too. 

This week in win margin are:
#1 SF
#2 NO
#3 CHI

Hence, my picks

This week in points scored over their last 3 weeks:
#1 NO
#2 SF
#3 PITT

I'm can't fade Chicago this week; they have a buy

I haven't decided on NE / Pitt.  It'd either be NE or no play for me.





 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by migger:

so your saying take baltimore this week -14 or what ever it is against Arizona? after they looked like sick dogs on MNF


Yes
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

Going into week 7, I faded GB because they were #1 in win margin over their last two weeks.  Guess who they were tied with? 

Baltimore; so I faded them too. 

This week in win margin are:
#1 SF
#2 NO
#3 CHI

Hence, my picks

This week in points scored over their last 3 weeks:
#1 NO
#2 SF
#3 PITT

I'm can't fade Chicago this week; they have a buy

I haven't decided on NE / Pitt.  It'd either be NE or no play for me.








Wait i dont get it why arent you fading NO and SF according to your theory??
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #20
SD
KC is #1 in 3 game defense

STL
NO is #1 in 3 game offense

CLE
SF is #1 in 2 game win margin

I'm still debating BALT / AZ and NE PITT

I'd say BALT or no play

and NE or no play

I'm still doing more research on totals.





 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:




Wait i dont get it why arent you fading NO and SF according to your theory??


I am doing exactly that. 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

And btw your Under and Over thing taking the opposite of what happend in the previous will not work



I'm actually doing better on O/U's than sides right now.

I'll definitely post them, as I do more research
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #23
So do you fade the top 3 in win margin or points or both?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 2859
Posted: #24
Totals

JAC / HOU Over 40.5

MIN / CAR Under 47.5

WAS / Buff Under 46
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 4731
Posted: #25
And i dont know how you are up in O/Us you had to get crushed in week 2-3 with the overs because the teams that were scoring kept on scoring!!
All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.