Why handicappers have such a rough time breaking fifty percent.

Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

First off, your  thread should be 'why casual sports bettors...' not  'why handicappers...' because by saying handicappers, that would include the people that are actually handicapping the game (ie vegas odds makers and so on..)  

I do agree with you that a lot of people are lazy when they make their bets but a lot of the time people are just making bets for fun and dont really have time to do research or whatever. Losing or winning for these people doesnt affect their life and so on and that doesnt mean they are lazy. Its just for enjoyment that they bet on sports...

Quote Originally Posted by inthetank:

Hey KS....Enjoyed reading your long post....I have been involved in football wagering for forty years....For half of those years, I took action....So, I got a lot of mileage and experience behind me....92 % of people who wager on pro football "lose in the long run!"....That's a fact!!..Successful bettors have 2 things in common...1.  They extremely limit the number  of plays they make, sometimes getting down but a few handfuls of action for the whole season....They may even skip a week or two....2....They all have a system that has been proven over the long run.    This of course ties in with number one....At the outset, years ago, I played 20-30 plays a week....As time went by, I read a lot, experienced a lot and in the process, learned tons....I admire you for all the research etc. that you do, your different angles etc....I  did it all and more....I greatly limit my plays, walk away from tons of games, and only get down when the game falls within my parameter(s)....Currently I am in the football contest on here done by "will bet anything."....I have 16 wins, 5 losses and one push....Out of hundreds, I sit fourth.....If you take notice, the other contestants all have many, many more plays than me....I did "not" play one game this entire weekend....I didn't have that 'feeling' that I must have, plus have it fall within my system..And I don't care what anyone thinks, you gotta have that 'feeling' too..That is learned 'over the years!'...Of course, it's taken for granted that one must have discipline and money management skills, and NEVER chase...I wish you lots of luck....Pro football is no picnic, but careful observation, experience, trial and error, research etc. can all help in showing a profit...As I said, I once did all that, but now I'm content with what I do.....My best to you!

Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84:

Now that is a good write up. 

You either bet on select games and stay diciplined and consistent with your amount of plays.  Have a weekly budget and have a goal to reach a certain amount per week. or......

You bet the whole NFL slate only....no college betting....too many games.  If you bet the entire slate, it keeps you on a consistent system.  You bet every game with the same amount...no pounders.  Obviously this is for the more veteren gamblers with a good bankroll, but it keeps you consistent.  You can definitely hit at least 55%...at worst.   It helps you really learn about the line when you pay close attention every week, because you are picking every game. 

There is only so much research you can do for a football game that has way too many factors involved, such as, PENALTIES, REFEREES, DUMB COACHES, BAD PLAYCALLING....shall i go on? 

 Baseball and small conference college basketball are the only real sports you can actually do hardcore research in. 

You could be wasting too much time?  And sometimes the more research you do can turn you into joe public and you dont even realize it, because you are sure you brioke it down and it cant lose....but really you ended up talking yourself into the wrong side.

Quote Originally Posted by NIXXXON:

Excellent Post.

... and in regards to the 'intangables"

Turnover prone teams will continue to turn the ball over/ ball security can aid in capping.. as well as bad play calling. Look at the coaches, but you have to watch the games to see what they do in given situations. There is always going to be a little luck involved. Especially in football where the ball is shaped live Stewie Griffins head.

 Watch as many games as you can, Limit your bets, never chase.. or you're gonna be one broke dude.. maybe in more ways than one.

Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84:

  What "simulations" are you getting?

 What is non-traditional, more detailed, deeper information?  Where doest his come from?  Unless you are around the team in the locker room or maybe you know a reporter or something?  Do you have a friend that works for certain teams and you get non-traditional, more detailed, deeper information?

I dont have the Direct TV package, but i do go to the bar every now and again and I have all the tvs one could want in front of me......in my experience, it is impossible to watch every play or every key down or every score of every game.  You tend to watch your team and maybe the other game or two you got money on and switch back and forth.  Same thing you would do with one tv and direct tv football package.  So my question is what exactly are you breaking down.  Are you able to record every single game and break it down?  Do you have the time to watch every game intently and do your hours upon hours of research every day?  Man, i hope you're putting at least $5,000 on every game?

So you also go to every single cities/team newspaper every day to guage the pulse of the team too?  Do you have a job?  Because i think this is your calling.   I hope you're winning a lot of money.

C'mon man, quit trying to act like you're Allen Iverson.   You dont have any other info than anyone else.  You need a little more public perception in your life.

  Quit starting threads acting like you are better than everyone becasue you spend all day in the "NFL LAB".....so this guy knows what he's doing....lets follow his plays.  Now you have a thread that is keeping your record......you are the man!  A genius really. 

Quote Originally Posted by BMadoff1987:

Hey KSCapping,

Quote Originally Posted by S_A_I_N_T_S:

In the end, there is no substitute for knowing both the sport and the teams that you're betting on and against. If you don't have those 2, you will not make money. 

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

Quote Originally Posted by AnthonyStarks:

sharp play mnf sd-3

Quote Originally Posted by BigBH:

I am KS's roomate and business partner. I am just getting annoyed with the non-believers. This is true and accurate. If you don't believe in KS then why are you bothering to post anything or even read his posts. Do you have no life. From what I know he posts most of his plays here (to many as far as I am concerned). If you don't like them then fade'em and see what you get. My advice to him is to have a cut and paste response "My stats speak for themselves; take a look. Also if i have my way most of the free plays he is giving out will go away.