Sport’s handicapping attracts lazy people. Fact is, if you are reading this right now;
85% chance is that you are a lazy handicapper.
In fact, the vast majority of sports bettors would not qualify for the
title of ‘Sports Handicapper’. Look at
how the average ‘Joe Blow’ handicaps a game.
He probably does not even have Direct TV’s NFL package, or any means to
watch multiple games. He watches the two
early games, one late game, the Sunday night game, the Monday Night Football
game, an hour of ESPN, and maybe an hour of NFL This Week. That is what just about everybody—Squares—
who bets on sports gets their information.
The lines are then set for those exact people that possess that exact
information; they are the vast majority of people who will bet the upcoming
weeks games—the Squares. If everybody is
using the same information to base their play decisions, the lines will
eventually (sooner rather than later) move to exactly where the average sports
bettor thinks the game will end up. The
‘feel’ bettor is hilarious to a real handicapper. The ‘feel’ bettor does not realize that the
worst thing that can happen to him is to get his ‘feeling’ and have it just
happen to come out correctly on the field; then he is fucked, because he now
found “the formula” for success and will keep trying to get the ‘feel’
back. Don’t get me wrong, real
handicapper’s ‘feel’ is when he has pounded details, news, simulations, injury
reports, locker room zeitgeist, and everything he could for a half a season;
his ‘feeling’ is his subconscious proding him with information too vast for conscience
recall. The ONLY way to gain an edge is
to work your ass off digging for every tid-bit of non-mainstream news that you
can, dig into detailed stats (and not just Offensive rankings/yards, defensive
rankings/yards, quarterback ratings, ect.
Be lazy and cap at fifty percent, pay someone who will dig the details
up for you (a service), or plan on spending a few hours—or much more—digging into
each game you play; you have no other options.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Sport’s handicapping attracts lazy people. Fact is, if you are reading this right now;
85% chance is that you are a lazy handicapper.
In fact, the vast majority of sports bettors would not qualify for the
title of ‘Sports Handicapper’. Look at
how the average ‘Joe Blow’ handicaps a game.
He probably does not even have Direct TV’s NFL package, or any means to
watch multiple games. He watches the two
early games, one late game, the Sunday night game, the Monday Night Football
game, an hour of ESPN, and maybe an hour of NFL This Week. That is what just about everybody—Squares—
who bets on sports gets their information.
The lines are then set for those exact people that possess that exact
information; they are the vast majority of people who will bet the upcoming
weeks games—the Squares. If everybody is
using the same information to base their play decisions, the lines will
eventually (sooner rather than later) move to exactly where the average sports
bettor thinks the game will end up. The
‘feel’ bettor is hilarious to a real handicapper. The ‘feel’ bettor does not realize that the
worst thing that can happen to him is to get his ‘feeling’ and have it just
happen to come out correctly on the field; then he is fucked, because he now
found “the formula” for success and will keep trying to get the ‘feel’
back. Don’t get me wrong, real
handicapper’s ‘feel’ is when he has pounded details, news, simulations, injury
reports, locker room zeitgeist, and everything he could for a half a season;
his ‘feeling’ is his subconscious proding him with information too vast for conscience
recall. The ONLY way to gain an edge is
to work your ass off digging for every tid-bit of non-mainstream news that you
can, dig into detailed stats (and not just Offensive rankings/yards, defensive
rankings/yards, quarterback ratings, ect.
Be lazy and cap at fifty percent, pay someone who will dig the details
up for you (a service), or plan on spending a few hours—or much more—digging into
each game you play; you have no other options.
Few handicappers realize that they themselves are the ‘Square’. Regardless of what you read, look up, or are
told; a Square is ‘Joe Public’ who bases his plays on basic, easy to find,
common mainstream sport’s new/information.
A Sharp is someone who gets non-traditional, more detailed, deeper
information to base his plays on. A
Square can be someone who plays 5K a play but uses basic information, and a
Sharp can be someone playing $100 a play but uses non-traditional/detailed
information to base his plays. Funny, I
can look up the definition and more often than now a Sharp is a Sharp simply by
the amount he wagers on a game—this is bullshit, plain and simple. So many sport’s bettors refer to the ‘Squares’
as some secret society that they themselves have nothing to do with. The reality is that everyone knows an
asshole, but no one ever thinks they are an asshole. Sport’s bettors who rely on basic
mainstream information to base their play opinions are the Squares. I see it all the time here in Vegas; most
guys walk into the Book, grab a list of the day’s games, flip it over—which has
a snap shot of a Covers game stat sheet—read the stats as they are slowly
walking towards the ticket window. Do
you have any clue how much the Book’s appreciate these guys? It is the Books ‘bread and butter’ They are the Squares.
Sport’s
entertainment is what really moves the lines.
That is scary, and it is really scary.
I will use Thanksgiving’s day NFL for an example. ESPN does not care if you get good, or real
information. ESPN wants to focus on one
goal alone…promote information and stories that will keep the most people tuned
in—period. Thanksgiving day had the
Sibling Rivalry, and it made for a great promo.
ESPN put Frank Gore’s great year, San Fran’s domination thus far, San
Fran’s great smash mouth football, ect. In
reality the game was a mismatch given the circumstances. I had this game capped in detail, and I am
going from memory—sue me if I am off a tad.
ESPN knew the 49er’s were going to be kicking off in Baltimore just 96 hours
after ending their game against Arizona, they knew that San Fran would be
basically losing 1 day of practice due to the travel—making it a super short
week, they knew that Frank Gore gets a full day of treatment for his knees
(sometime two), they knew Frank Gore averaged just over 2 yards per carry vs
top ranked defenses, they knew San Fran benefited from a weak schedule to get
their 9-1 record, and they knew the game was a mismatch—that does not excite
anyone, and it does not keep people from changing the channel. So the betting public absorbs this
information, and the line is soft and vunerable. Why would the linemakers not have the line at
Ravens -9? Everybody would have jumped
on SF leaving the Books vulnerable to a big loss, but -3.5 would give the books
uneven action heavy in their favor, and they made a killing with about 61% of
the ESPN watching Squares losing their money… and the books knew it was
coming. A real handicapper uses
mainstream media for no other reason than to get a guage on what the Squares
are thinking and to get an edge on good spots in upcoming games.
0
Few handicappers realize that they themselves are the ‘Square’. Regardless of what you read, look up, or are
told; a Square is ‘Joe Public’ who bases his plays on basic, easy to find,
common mainstream sport’s new/information.
A Sharp is someone who gets non-traditional, more detailed, deeper
information to base his plays on. A
Square can be someone who plays 5K a play but uses basic information, and a
Sharp can be someone playing $100 a play but uses non-traditional/detailed
information to base his plays. Funny, I
can look up the definition and more often than now a Sharp is a Sharp simply by
the amount he wagers on a game—this is bullshit, plain and simple. So many sport’s bettors refer to the ‘Squares’
as some secret society that they themselves have nothing to do with. The reality is that everyone knows an
asshole, but no one ever thinks they are an asshole. Sport’s bettors who rely on basic
mainstream information to base their play opinions are the Squares. I see it all the time here in Vegas; most
guys walk into the Book, grab a list of the day’s games, flip it over—which has
a snap shot of a Covers game stat sheet—read the stats as they are slowly
walking towards the ticket window. Do
you have any clue how much the Book’s appreciate these guys? It is the Books ‘bread and butter’ They are the Squares.
Sport’s
entertainment is what really moves the lines.
That is scary, and it is really scary.
I will use Thanksgiving’s day NFL for an example. ESPN does not care if you get good, or real
information. ESPN wants to focus on one
goal alone…promote information and stories that will keep the most people tuned
in—period. Thanksgiving day had the
Sibling Rivalry, and it made for a great promo.
ESPN put Frank Gore’s great year, San Fran’s domination thus far, San
Fran’s great smash mouth football, ect. In
reality the game was a mismatch given the circumstances. I had this game capped in detail, and I am
going from memory—sue me if I am off a tad.
ESPN knew the 49er’s were going to be kicking off in Baltimore just 96 hours
after ending their game against Arizona, they knew that San Fran would be
basically losing 1 day of practice due to the travel—making it a super short
week, they knew that Frank Gore gets a full day of treatment for his knees
(sometime two), they knew Frank Gore averaged just over 2 yards per carry vs
top ranked defenses, they knew San Fran benefited from a weak schedule to get
their 9-1 record, and they knew the game was a mismatch—that does not excite
anyone, and it does not keep people from changing the channel. So the betting public absorbs this
information, and the line is soft and vunerable. Why would the linemakers not have the line at
Ravens -9? Everybody would have jumped
on SF leaving the Books vulnerable to a big loss, but -3.5 would give the books
uneven action heavy in their favor, and they made a killing with about 61% of
the ESPN watching Squares losing their money… and the books knew it was
coming. A real handicapper uses
mainstream media for no other reason than to get a guage on what the Squares
are thinking and to get an edge on good spots in upcoming games.
You can increase your capping percentage, but it is a “hard
way to make an easy living” I once read
a quote from a professional poker player who said ‘it’s a hard way to make an
easy living’ and that describes professional sport’s handicapping. If you are happy with going on hot streaks of
70% and cold streaks of 25%, and evening out to the eventual 45 to 50% , then
do what the Squares do and have fun. But
if you want to truly average up in the high 50’s to low 60’s—don’t let anyone
BS you, no one has a long term average in the 70’s if they do, look for their
direct line to God, or their crystal ball—you will have to work your ass off
and dig for information you are not even sure exists until you find it.
NOTE: I just typed
this free hand, it is 2:37 am PST, it’s been a long and hard weekend; if I have
typos ect and it bothers you… no offense but fuck you…lol….seriously, I am
exhausted…..peace
0
You can increase your capping percentage, but it is a “hard
way to make an easy living” I once read
a quote from a professional poker player who said ‘it’s a hard way to make an
easy living’ and that describes professional sport’s handicapping. If you are happy with going on hot streaks of
70% and cold streaks of 25%, and evening out to the eventual 45 to 50% , then
do what the Squares do and have fun. But
if you want to truly average up in the high 50’s to low 60’s—don’t let anyone
BS you, no one has a long term average in the 70’s if they do, look for their
direct line to God, or their crystal ball—you will have to work your ass off
and dig for information you are not even sure exists until you find it.
NOTE: I just typed
this free hand, it is 2:37 am PST, it’s been a long and hard weekend; if I have
typos ect and it bothers you… no offense but fuck you…lol….seriously, I am
exhausted…..peace
Very nice read K. Can you tell me where one would dig up all the non traditional information. What sites do you use when it comes to handicapping. Thanks bro.
0
Very nice read K. Can you tell me where one would dig up all the non traditional information. What sites do you use when it comes to handicapping. Thanks bro.
Sport’s
entertainment is what really moves the lines.
That is scary, and it is really scary.
I will use Thanksgiving’s day NFL for an example. ESPN does not care if you get good, or real
information. ESPN wants to focus on one
goal alone…promote information and stories that will keep the most people tuned
in—period. Thanksgiving day had the
Sibling Rivalry, and it made for a great promo.
ESPN put Frank Gore’s great year, San Fran’s domination thus far, San
Fran’s great smash mouth football, ect. In
reality the game was a mismatch given the circumstances. I had this game capped in detail, and I am
going from memory—sue me if I am off a tad.
ESPN knew the 49er’s were going to be kicking off in Baltimore just 96 hours
after ending their game against Arizona, they knew that San Fran would be
basically losing 1 day of practice due to the travel—making it a super short
week, they knew that Frank Gore gets a full day of treatment for his knees
(sometime two), they knew Frank Gore averaged just over 2 yards per carry vs
top ranked defenses, they knew San Fran benefited from a weak schedule to get
their 9-1 record, and they knew the game was a mismatch—that does not excite
anyone, and it does not keep people from changing the channel. So the betting public absorbs this
information, and the line is soft and vunerable. Why would the linemakers not have the line at
Ravens -9? Everybody would have jumped
on SF leaving the Books vulnerable to a big loss, but -3.5 would give the books
uneven action heavy in their favor, and they made a killing with about 61% of
the ESPN watching Squares losing their money… and the books knew it was
coming. A real handicapper uses
mainstream media for no other reason than to get a guage on what the Squares
are thinking and to get an edge on good spots in upcoming games.
Next time you have all this sharp information, make sure to post before the game. Thanks!
0
Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:
Sport’s
entertainment is what really moves the lines.
That is scary, and it is really scary.
I will use Thanksgiving’s day NFL for an example. ESPN does not care if you get good, or real
information. ESPN wants to focus on one
goal alone…promote information and stories that will keep the most people tuned
in—period. Thanksgiving day had the
Sibling Rivalry, and it made for a great promo.
ESPN put Frank Gore’s great year, San Fran’s domination thus far, San
Fran’s great smash mouth football, ect. In
reality the game was a mismatch given the circumstances. I had this game capped in detail, and I am
going from memory—sue me if I am off a tad.
ESPN knew the 49er’s were going to be kicking off in Baltimore just 96 hours
after ending their game against Arizona, they knew that San Fran would be
basically losing 1 day of practice due to the travel—making it a super short
week, they knew that Frank Gore gets a full day of treatment for his knees
(sometime two), they knew Frank Gore averaged just over 2 yards per carry vs
top ranked defenses, they knew San Fran benefited from a weak schedule to get
their 9-1 record, and they knew the game was a mismatch—that does not excite
anyone, and it does not keep people from changing the channel. So the betting public absorbs this
information, and the line is soft and vunerable. Why would the linemakers not have the line at
Ravens -9? Everybody would have jumped
on SF leaving the Books vulnerable to a big loss, but -3.5 would give the books
uneven action heavy in their favor, and they made a killing with about 61% of
the ESPN watching Squares losing their money… and the books knew it was
coming. A real handicapper uses
mainstream media for no other reason than to get a guage on what the Squares
are thinking and to get an edge on good spots in upcoming games.
Next time you have all this sharp information, make sure to post before the game. Thanks!
Very nice read K. Can you tell me where one would dig up all the non traditional information. What sites do you use when it comes to handicapping. Thanks bro.
Google...seriously.... I usually start out google'ing something like 'Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Preview" ... you will find a few previews, and a few little 'hooks' that will lead to questions you will come up with...then Google search for that.. and on and on... litterally the informational links/questions will connect longer than any of us would ever need.... BoL 2 U
0
Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:
Very nice read K. Can you tell me where one would dig up all the non traditional information. What sites do you use when it comes to handicapping. Thanks bro.
Google...seriously.... I usually start out google'ing something like 'Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Preview" ... you will find a few previews, and a few little 'hooks' that will lead to questions you will come up with...then Google search for that.. and on and on... litterally the informational links/questions will connect longer than any of us would ever need.... BoL 2 U
most people start betting sports b/c they feel it will be easy money... they feel that they love sports, watching sports, and know sports well, so they are a 'perfect fit'.... but then their money starts to drain ect..... Capping is exhausting work if done successfully... hope that answers your question BoL
0
Quote Originally Posted by gomburzago:
Can you summarize your point in 1-2 sentences?
most people start betting sports b/c they feel it will be easy money... they feel that they love sports, watching sports, and know sports well, so they are a 'perfect fit'.... but then their money starts to drain ect..... Capping is exhausting work if done successfully... hope that answers your question BoL
Well written for 2 AM. By your definition I'm a square, yet I've had only one losing year betting sports out of the last 20. I don't count the first five years when I was paying for an edjucation in the endevor. In my experience stats are a good foundation, but 'spot' in the schedule and a teams mentality are more important. Particularly in football. The square better is the only reason there is any advantage. 'Somebody bet on the bay.'
0
Well written for 2 AM. By your definition I'm a square, yet I've had only one losing year betting sports out of the last 20. I don't count the first five years when I was paying for an edjucation in the endevor. In my experience stats are a good foundation, but 'spot' in the schedule and a teams mentality are more important. Particularly in football. The square better is the only reason there is any advantage. 'Somebody bet on the bay.'
LOL
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