Why handicappers have such a rough time breaking fifty percent.

      For me it is simple. You want to make money don't bet the NFL. If top vegas cappers who do this for a living can barely hit 60% and most do worse. How is a capper who has a life outside of capping going to do consistently better.

     Bottom line is there are only 16 games for the odd makers to set lines for and they have all week to adjust lines etc.

      For myself I started seriously betting and capping College basketball about 5 years ago and wondered why I didn't start sooner. Trust me it is a lot easier to find a bad line in college basketball  to take advantage of with so many games each week. There are a lot less variables to fuck up your point spread play also.

    They say in one nfl game there are between 25 to 30 crucial plays that can effect the point spead to go either way. Can you fucken believe that and were trying to handicap that shit. So why do we play, is the nfl sexier, more popular, because everyone else it getting in on the action.

     Well this year I have played less of my bankroll on the nfl and have chosen to let it ride were I have more success.

   Good luck to all

the NFL is by far the hardest sport to beat.  that is because(whoever said it first), it's the sexiest sport, and they have the least amount of games per week and the most time to gather their information.  i prefer to bet NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, and MLB and have WAY more success there.  i do bet NFL and do well, but my best sport by far is NBA followed closely by NCAAF and NCAAB.  you nailed it best, the sportsbooks don't have as much time to set sharp lines when there are 20-50 games every single day.  i love to bet totals, first half totals, and 2nd half plays. that has been my key to success.  don't get me wrong, there are games in the NFL every single week that are easy to call, but the main thing that i use to handicap games are the 2 M's; Motivation and Momentum.  A good friend taught me that about 4 years ago to look first at those two things before you look at anything, and you will be much more successful in the long run. 

to anyone that hates on proffesional handicappers, or touts, whatever you wanna call them, why don't you go into work tommorow, and tell your boss that you are great at what you do, and you'd like to give him back your salary and do it for free.  now, i've never used a tout myself, and i don't suggest doing it, just like i don't use a financial company to handle my investments, it's because i do my own homework, and i'd much rather be responsible for my own money.  but bottom line you can't hate on somebody for making a profit off of something they are good at, because if i'm not mistaken(which i'm not), that is what our entire country has been based on, CAPITALISM, and if you don't agree with the way we do things in america, then move to canada or some socialist country where the government controls everything.

seriously, the only advice that i would give to anyone reading this thread or anyone at all on this site that is not winning on a long-term basis, is to either put in work, look at momentum & motivation, or stop.  unless you like giving your money away. i love sports, i love playing sports, i love watching sports, and i love betting on sports, but that doesn't justify me giving my money away.  ever since i was taught money management, and how to look at a team's mindset first and foremost, i have increased my winning percentage to a point where i can confidently wager on every single play without thinking twice.  we all get on cold streaks, we all get on hot streaks, but obviously no one play should ever make or break you. 

i hope everyone reading this thread seriously takes a look at their bankroll and their winning percentage and takes some of this advice seriously because YOU CAN WIN betting sports.  i'm not claiming to be hitting 70%+ of my wagers because that is impossible long term, but let's just say i can't complain at all. 

good luck to everyone on here, this site is supposed to be about helping each other beat the book, and not about who's got the biggest dick.  let's all be positive, and share positive information so we can all WIN MONEY.  that's what this all boils down to.  if you're not doing well, there are plenty of handicappers on this site that are doing well, and that share their plays with you every single day without asking for a penny.  i don't see how that's a bad thing at all. 

the NFL is by far the hardest sport to beat.  that is because(whoever said it first), it's the sexiest sport, and they have the least amount of games per week and the most time to gather their information.  i prefer to bet NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, and MLB and have WAY more success there.  i do bet NFL and do well, but my best sport by far is NBA followed closely by NCAAF and NCAAB.  you nailed it best, the sportsbooks don't have as much time to set sharp lines when there are 20-50 games every single day.  i love to bet totals, first half totals, and 2nd half plays. that has been my key to success.  don't get me wrong, there are games in the NFL every single week that are easy to call, but the main thing that i use to handicap games are the 2 M's; Motivation and Momentum.  A good friend taught me that about 4 years ago to look first at those two things before you look at anything, and you will be much more successful in the long run. 

to anyone that hates on proffesional handicappers, or touts, whatever you wanna call them, why don't you go into work tommorow, and tell your boss that you are great at what you do, and you'd like to give him back your salary and do it for free.  now, i've never used a tout myself, and i don't suggest doing it, just like i don't use a financial company to handle my investments, it's because i do my own homework, and i'd much rather be responsible for my own money.  but bottom line you can't hate on somebody for making a profit off of something they are good at, because if i'm not mistaken(which i'm not), that is what our entire country has been based on, CAPITALISM, and if you don't agree with the way we do things in america, then move to canada or some socialist country where the government controls everything.

seriously, the only advice that i would give to anyone reading this thread or anyone at all on this site that is not winning on a long-term basis, is to either put in work, look at momentum & motivation, or stop.  unless you like giving your money away. i love sports, i love playing sports, i love watching sports, and i love betting on sports, but that doesn't justify me giving my money away.  ever since i was taught money management, and how to look at a team's mindset first and foremost, i have increased my winning percentage to a point where i can confidently wager on every single play without thinking twice.  we all get on cold streaks, we all get on hot streaks, but obviously no one play should ever make or break you. 

i hope everyone reading this thread seriously takes a look at their bankroll and their winning percentage and takes some of this advice seriously because YOU CAN WIN betting sports.  i'm not claiming to be hitting 70%+ of my wagers because that is impossible long term, but let's just say i can't complain at all. 

good luck to everyone on here, this site is supposed to be about helping each other beat the book, and not about who's got the biggest dick.  let's all be positive, and share positive information so we can all WIN MONEY.  that's what this all boils down to.  if you're not doing well, there are plenty of handicappers on this site that are doing well, and that share their plays with you every single day without asking for a penny.  i don't see how that's a bad thing at all. 

so you're saying there was reverse line movement on that game?  I'm curious as to what your basis is for this theory.   My books actually moved the line the other way leading up to kickoff.. the 9ers ML odds got shorter.

LOL.  Not being negative or trying to discredit you.. I was just interested to know what kind of sources you had leading you to believe the public was on San Fran.   But I'm sure those sources are top secret so there's nothing more for us to talk about.   Just seemed weird to me to conclude the public would be on a 3 or 3.5  pt dog traveling across country to play against a division leader.   You could be right though.. GL on fading the public in the future and I look forward to your picks.