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Why are so many people backing the Cards?

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Posts: 144

Kazual12

Captain

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 7691

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:52 PM ET #26

Primetime. As a Giants fan they surely like to make games interesting. I almost threw up when they blew a 23 point lead. Then again I almost expected it. That is why I never bet on the Giants as a fan. Watching them is difficult enough. You are right it is a game of inches. I personally think Dez Bryant is a loser but he gave it a hell of an effort to make that catch. Tough loss on that play but then again if the Giants defense could of covered anyone it wouldn't have even come to that....

Jose_Reyes

Hall of Fame

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Posts: 20468

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:53 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

That word is thrown around so much on this forum.

Honestly none of us are sharps

That term is like a legend or a myth.

It seems to me that a lot of posters spend as much time worrying about which is the sharp side, and which is the square side, as they do trying to pick winners.. These words have absolutely no merit, and will not help find winners. You said it perfectly, LJ.

boltsfan

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Posts: 3392

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:58 PM ET #28

On the same page LJ

BOL

LawsonJames

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Posts: 31214

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 3:58 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

It seems to me that a lot of posters spend as much time worrying about which is the sharp side, and which is the square side, as they do trying to pick winners.. These words have absolutely no merit, and will not help find winners. You said it perfectly, LJ.

Completely agree JR. As cappers we should be concerned with just picking winners only.

I hate when people post about Sharps being on this "team" or Sharps drove up or down the line. How do you know?

And what I absolutely hate the most is when people pick a loser but say "I was on the right side or Sharps were on the right side but just unlucky"

MustRisk2Win

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Joined: Jul, 2009

Posts: 3407

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:03 PM ET #30

A few reasons I think:

7 is a key number. Gives you a full TD if you back the home dog

SF is only 1 game ahead of Arizona, in the same division, and playing on the road

You have to lay -300 to back SF, 3 units win 1, if you back Arizona...you have a chance to win 2.5 units off 1.

Skelton is 6-0 as a starter at home

Alex Smith is not a dominate QB, and there is a chance he struggles

Arizona has a good defensive line, and there is a chance they step up.

I would not back SF in this one, GL to those who do

Kazual12

Captain

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 7691

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:09 PM ET #31

agree i would not take the niners here but I also wouldn't take the Cardinals either. I see this as a low scoring affair.

Chrisg44

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 107

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:14 PM ET #32

LJ, i feel same way!

redbook1

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Posts: 1033

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:16 PM ET #33

the only reason to take ariz is that they're the home dog on monday night, which is a successful way to go if you ALWAYS follow this sytem.

all of the other reasons given on this forum for taking ariz are crap.

brodeur

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 381

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:17 PM ET #34

49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Arizona.

LawsonJames

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Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:17 PM ET #35

I could not disagree more. I see every reason to take the Niners here. This will be a double digit win.

casanova27

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Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 1403

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:19 PM ET #36

history repeats itself

skelton is gonna cover just like last year

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/results/2011-2012/boxscore29545.html

Sjabo

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Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 5866

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:19 PM ET #37

The answer to Ur question Lawson is that nowadays everyone looks at consensus sites and bets against it . I don't know when they will figure out that it won't work. Carry on fellas and good luck

LawsonJames

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Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:21 PM ET #38

The Cards scored a total of 16 pts at home against arguably the worst defense in the league in Buffalo and then followed with only 14 against Minnesota. The same Minnesota team that allowed 36 at home against the Bucs.

LawsonJames

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Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:23 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by Sjabo:

The answer to Ur question Lawson is that nowadays everyone looks at consensus sites and bets against it . I don't know when they will figure out that it won't work. Carry on fellas and good luck

I don't look at consensus sites at all. Just my gut and my gut went 7-1 in NFL yesterday.

What is the consensus play? The Niners, so people are thus taking the Cards.

benhogan76

Legend

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Posts: 63837

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:24 PM ET #40

It is the NFL so nothing surprises me anymore but Skeleton is dreadful, cant see how SF D doesnt put a ton of pressure on him and force a few TOs.

We should stop eating bananas.

carlos1321

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 881

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:26 PM ET #41

lawsonjames. i got to agree with you. at first i was leaning az since sf hasn't been doing well. but those teams they played are way better than az. just like yesterday i bought into the whole phi thing.. my early lean was atl, phi sucks simple as that.. then i bought into the saints and points..

here i won't its sf all day and the over is my lean..

bigbooze

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 53

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:27 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984:

I don't see the 49ers offense doing enough to make this a blowout. And I'm not a huge trends guy or anything, but this year, when a team plays before their Bye, and their opponent is NOT on a bye the next week, those teams are 1-14 ATS this year.

that trend has been money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LawsonJames

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Posts: 31214

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:29 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by swolesbee:

7 points is too much. To give you an idea of how shaded and overvalued this spread is keep in mind that when the line was made this summer SF was -3. Coming off a Thursday division game and a big game against the Giants were already factored into the line this summer. What exactly are you and others seeing that makes you think that the Niners deserve a 4 point spike in value on the road on a MONDAY NIGHT game that is sold out. Alex Smith??? LOL. He is complete garbage. Zona has the better QB tonight.

I think people just think about the SF defense and think that this team is soooo good but when you have a QB that bad and an offensive coordinator that is that bad you are going to struggle-especially on the road. The Niners strengths are running the ball but why do people think San Fran is going to come out and run the ball? Their offensive coordinator hasnt done that all year. They get pass happy every single game and I dont understand it. After the Giants loss Harbaugh even mentioned that he didnt understand the offensive gameplan and it "didnt work." In Minnesota 9 of the niners first 10 plays were passes lol. Yes if they Niners ran the ball 70% of the time tonight they probably win the game and might cover.... Wouldnt surprise me if they ran it less than 50% of the time tonight. Arizona's defense is JUST AS GOOD and with that atmosphere tonight they will be the better defense! They will have a playoff atmosphere from the crowd tonight man that place is going to be electric. They are also desperate for a win after 3 straight losses! They need this win more. SF is cocky-Arizona is desperate. Not a good combo. Cardinals will win tonight.. I actually think tonight Niners backers will be wondering why they put their money on ALEX SMITH to cover a 7 point spread on the road.

I stopped reading after that

GL on your Skelton play though

LawsonJames

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Posts: 31214

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:33 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by swolesbee:

This is a valid point. People have no idea where this money is coming from or who is making the bet. For example Floyd mayweather personally caused a massive shift in the giants game this past weekend by putting 4.5 million himself on the g-men spread through 7 different books.... Yes their was a ton of money that caused a line shift... But if you think Floyd Mayweather is a "Sharp" then your an idiot lol...

lol I completely agree with you here

LawsonJames

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Posts: 31214

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:35 PM ET #45

Alex Smith is good

John Skelton is bad

benhogan76

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Posts: 63837

Posted: Oct. 29, 2012 - 4:39 PM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by swolesbee:

They played against a desperate Buffalo team that called that game a must win and stayed in Arizona for a week leading up to the game. Terrible spot for Arizona in that game... They would have won anyways had Kolb not gone down...Even with the Kolb injury they should have won the game if Feely makes a chipshot 35 yard field goal or whatever it was...

Against Minny you had another terrible spot as they had skelton playing his first road game this season against a team that really needed to bounce back after getting thrashed. Skelton struggled but the defense owned the Vikings. No points to the Minny offense in the 2nd half. Only lost the game because skelton had a pick 6. he was supposed to struggle in that spot. Those were 2 bad spots for zona this is an incredible spot to back them. They are a good team man. Yo will see tonight.

Skelton beat the niners last year lol and heplays extremely well at home as does this entire cardinals team.

I would assume you like the Over then?

We should stop eating bananas.