WEEK 7 SDQL

@jowchoo

what kind of odds did you get on the MIA under 20.5?

how do you decide which querys to overlap?  Is it just a matter of overlaying intuitively until you feel like to arrive a high expectancy?  Or are there certain things that will steer how you overlay?

let’s say the last 5 seasons. 
Or average roi since the last decade ? 

 10 point teazer:

KC +11.5

NE +13

Cleveland U 49.5

Odds are 6/5, but better than a 6/5 to cash IMHO.

Thanks for your work.

RT2

@stinkroach

 I particularly like line of scrimmage metrics, I use 2 way differential query's that is team A offense vs team B defense and team A defense vs team B offense to measure for imbalances.

I use ratios when such as points/play, rushing yards/sacks ,etc,along with situational filters and historic filters, Pattern recognition of a sort.

your input for minn -6 stands out to me the most...  thank you so much for your posts bro

Long-time lurker- really appreciate the way you share your process.

When you run a 2-way differential — say points/play, team A offense vs team B defense and the mirror — how big does the gap have to be before it’s a play? Do you use a fixed cutoff, a percentile/ranking, or a z-score/standard-deviation threshold?

I have an index based on the top 4 imbalances,and if any in the list are higher than than the avg plus 25% , it signal a larger bet size.My bet sizing changes have been very rewarding thusfar. Additionally, I have added a totals matrix that is still a work in progress.,............gl

Appreciate you sharing that — the relative threshold (avg + 25%) is the part that clicks for me.

Keeps it slate-adaptive instead of a fixed cutoff that goes stale as the league’s scoring environment shifts.

And a composite of the top-4 imbalances is smarter than leaning on any single differential — one noisy stat can’t carry the signal. Good luck with the totals matrix;

that’s the frontier right now.

Thanks again.

Quick one that’s live for me this week,

I’ve got Cincy exposure, but Lamar’s return means Baltimore’s pass-D averages are stale backup-QB numbers that make the matchup look softer than it’ll really be.

When your index flags a spot built on stale averages like that, do you manually knock the differential down, skip the game, or wait for the line to catch up?

Trying to figure out where the model stops and judgment takes over.

Quick question. 

How can you be on NE +3, and NE TT U23.5, and NE/CHI O50?

You may run into some problems there.

Good Luck 

Similar question- you’re on Car -3 and Car TT u19.5. I’m sure you know what you’re doing, but strange way to play the game no? Tough to be in a position where Carolina scoring more than 20 causes you to go 1-1. 

Either way always a good read and love the way you adapt to new concepts. Bol jowchoo

Read post #21 and 22. Just caught it myself after going back through. 

Roster additions or subtractions are a red flag in my model, 3 week rolling averages with steady rosters is my go to..........................gl

The OVER was a typo and #29 it was corrected to an under play.

season>=2010 and t:losses=0 and week>6 and D

(8-3) ATS and (8-3)SU

Since 2010 an undefeated dog is 8-3 straight up and ats

4. KC +3 (2%)

5. KC ml  +125 (2%)

6% , 2 team 6 point teaser -120

3. KC +9 / MINN -.5

6% ...another dog shit dupe!

Total is up to 45. I assume that this makes them stronger plays? 

@Jowchoo

Do you play these all as separate tickets or like a round robin, or even parlay (Have you figured out if you would be better off playing some of these as a parlay) or does your book call a loss on a tie, or just a push? Just wondering if the EV is there.

A push and a win is NO ACTION,anyone not getting that should change books.

Used the anchor teaser model in the past,but this current iteration has far less variance.

Always thought that the big guys up front,the hogs, had more to say about ats outcomes than

the primma donnas and media narratives alpha players. Just recently found out how to test for imbalances and proper bet

sizing,sofar so good.................................................................gl

A push and a win is NO ACTION,anyone not getting that should change books.

Used the anchor teaser model in the past,but this current iteration has far less variance.

Always thought that the big guys up front,the hogs, had more to say about ats outcomes than

the primma donnas and media narratives alpha players. Just recently found out how to test for imbalances and proper bet

sizing,sofar so good.................................................................gl

Hey jc , a lot of exposure on KC! Doesn't scare you potential blowout? GL

Always scared.

home return for Walker( motivation) and covering the key numbers with REID /Mahomes helps with the fear...lol

Undefeated DOGS have a MUCH better chance of winning straight up than getting blown out, as you know

ANYTHING can happen but historically the +EV is to KC especially teased...lol........................................................................gl

btw; Over rushing yards for Walker is +EV

4% plays: 6 pt 2 team teasers -120

6. ATL+9 / HOU-3.5

7. ATL+9 / MINN -.5