WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

I have a strange feeling this game gets into the mid 40's.  Could be too good to be true.

Slight lean to the over, but I don't think I'll play it.  Might jump in at halftime if I see something I like.  This is a tough game to read.. hard to know what to expect from the Jets.

I will create an archive folder for NFL sheets inside the primary link from post #1 of this thread.  Same drill as the baseball forum.  In fact, the link in post #1 will remain constant through the season.  Each week I will move the previous week's sheets into the archive folder and post the upcoming weeks thread in it's own folder.

I try avoid reading into things like this.  It can only cloud the true probability of the game.  As far as my numbers show, the Texans should win this game approximately 71% of the time.  Historically, teams with this winning percentage have an average margin of victory of about 9 ppg.  Oddsmakers set a pretty fair line here.. it's not a trap or anything else.  It just is what it is.

Sorry, didn't see this.  Woulda said no.  Fair value on the moneyline for Houston is -285

Turnovers are not factored into the model.  Turnovers in the NFL have very little to do with skill.. footballs are a very weird shape and they tend to do unpredictable things.  I've found that it's best to avoid throwing them into the equation if possible.  Better to keep it simple by looking at offensive/defensive match-ups.

The Texans should run the ball all second half and play zone.  Take the under.

Although, after just hearing myself say that, a desperate Jets team could make huge mistakes leading to short fields or defensive touchdowns.. the under might not be the best idea after all.

Yeah, even with that 42 yard run taken away Foster is averaging over 5 ypc.  All indications point to Houston running away with this.