WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

Last week the regression began, the first three weeks though it seemed like every one of them hit.

The bigger issue at work here is the number of people that are taking the Rams just because they feel like they're going to win on some notion that Arizona is due to come back to earth.  I'm not buying into this rationale.. the Rams offense might be the worst in the NFL, I find it hard to justify any wager on their side especially against a defense like Arizona's.

With Arizona playing back to back home games & the last game being the toughest & coming from behind to win in over time, I think this game will be close, hence the reason I took the Rams +11.5 in a teaser.............I dont see a blowout from either side & it being a divisional match-up, it should be a close game.

Either way, gl & I hope the Rams dont lose by more than 11, thats if they lose..............

+11.5 seems like a solid price to take the Rams.  There's a chance they can cover that number without scoring a touchdown even.  17-6 doesn't seem like an improbable score with these offenses on the field.  Good luck PTB.

make sure your copying it properly...and i'm pretty sure you have to be signed into google account and sometimes there are too many people viewing the page...Si1ly has said he will mirror the link...

my previous comment was for a paid capper ad. 

Yes.  I will duplicate the files and post mirrored links as needed.  I would think at least one mirror - possibly several will be needed on Sundays considering this was already an issue on weekday nights in the MLB forums.

I've posted some leans on sides a few posts down on page one.  As for totals, I'll be looking in my sheets for offensive/defensive match-up issues.  One game that stands out early is Atlanta @ Washington.  Atlanta is #27 in run defense and Washington is #6 in run offense.  Conversely, Washington is #26 in pass defense and Atlanta is #5 in pass offense.  What this tells me is Washington will use their home crowd and their advantage in the running game to move the ball and put up some points.. but Atlanta will be able to keep pace and perhaps surpass pace with deep strikes through the air.  This has the makings of a back and forth game and the oddsmakers agree setting this as one of the highest totals on Sunday.  For good reason, I think it's the right side.  I also lean over in Pittsburgh.  I'm very down on the Steelers this year, particularly in the areas of offensive line, rushing offense and total defense.  Their defense carries with it the legacy of its name, but nothing more.  I'm expecting the Eagles to get into the endzone a few times on Sunday and the Steelers to follow along with their new vertical offense and the benefits of home field and extra rest.  In this case, the extra rest will help their offense and their o-line.  Their defense can't be helped.

I pick my spots in the post season.  Last year only made 12 wagers or something like that.  But I picked up 9 units.  The lines are usually extremely tight and sometimes you have to forgo statistics for the hotter team.  It's a tough sell for a stats guy like me to make that concession.  But there's money to be made in the playoffs.  I feast on postseason play.  My ROI is over 20% in all sports I believe.

Contrary what you might think, I have a very good relationship with both locals I use.  Locals - who are always at risk of having very lopsided action due to a relatively small and narrow set of clients - appreciate taking sharp action at times because it keeps their books balanced.  The alternative to my action is hedging with another book.  Most responsible locals will not allow themselves to be taken by any single game if the action is lopsided enough.  Sportsbooks need to have players on both side to survive.