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WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


14-2 on the season so far.  I'm looking over a few plays tomorrow.  Currently eyeing WASH +3.5, ATL@WAS Over, SEA ML, PHI +3.5, CLE +10 (-120), IND +8

Thanks si1ly for all of your efforts to help us profit...
I understand these plays did not make the final cut as you tend to play a single play on Sundays... any merit left of these early leans and how would you rate each one IYDM... appreciate whatever input you may have ... good and bad...

BOL today and thanks again for sharing your knowledge..
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

on the atl/wash over 51

wouldnt at all be surprised to see this reached midway through the third quarter

marshawn lynch will not be able to be contained today...

One of my best models projected a raw total of 67.  

Atlanta won't be able to stop the Washington run game and Washington won't be able to stop Atlanta's vertical passing game.  This has the makings of a back and forth slug fest.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by nakadinhi:


Thanks si1ly for all of your efforts to help us profit...
I understand these plays did not make the final cut as you tend to play a single play on Sundays... any merit left of these early leans and how would you rate each one IYDM... appreciate whatever input you may have ... good and bad...

BOL today and thanks again for sharing your knowledge..

The books have the most liability on Green Bay and Baltimore.. so Indy and KC are both fantastic home dog bets catching more than a touchdown.  If you can find Indy +7.5 or better, I really like the play.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


The books have the most liability on Green Bay and Baltimore.. so Indy and KC are both fantastic home dog bets catching more than a touchdown.  If you can find Indy +7.5 or better, I really like the play.

Thank you si1ly... appreciate the response..
and thanks for making the Seattle play a lot more confident...
BOL..
 
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Posted: #80
Any concern for the sea chickens flying to the east coast?
 
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Posted: #81
ya bro like ur pick on philly... im a huge steelers fan and i dont c our o-line holding up... philly d line is tough... and with steelers going away from the run once again this year is gonna hurt them... thought todd haly was gonna come in and get back to traditional steeler football ground and pound but apparently not. there letting ben try win it through the air.. he is not the elite qb like peolpe make him out to b.. watch out for that skins total... 100% of rain... gl bro...nice run and thinks for the info..
 
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Posted: #82
My book has Seattle at +2 

I wonder if i Should just take it now before it go's to -1 

any thoughts?

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by JBhouse:

Any concern for the sea chickens flying to the east coast?

Always a concern with this angle.. but it's a 4:00 game so it shouldn't be too strange on their bodies.  And with their ability to control time of possession and keep their elite defense fresh, I'm not going to let it bother me.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

My book has Seattle at +2 

I wonder if i Should just take it now before it go's to -1 

any thoughts?


I don't think it will move any lower.  At +2, I would consider just playing the moneyline.. I really don't think the spread will be a factor and at +2 you only benefit with a winning wager in a 1 point loss.  If the difference is +135 and -110, the moneyline is a better deal I think..
 
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Posted: #85
what do you have seattle winning by ?
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by RUSSINGER:

ya bro like ur pick on philly... im a huge steelers fan and i dont c our o-line holding up... philly d line is tough... and with steelers going away from the run once again this year is gonna hurt them... thought todd haly was gonna come in and get back to traditional steeler football ground and pound but apparently not. there letting ben try win it through the air.. he is not the elite qb like peolpe make him out to b.. watch out for that skins total... 100% of rain... gl bro...nice run and thinks for the info..

I'm seeing rain too.. but it hasn't affected the line at all.  Sometimes slippery conditions can lead to big plays and short fields so there's just as much of a reason to assume the wet weather will help the over as much as the under.  I really like the Eagles play.. also the Eagles over.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

what do you have seattle winning by ?

I have the game lined at SEA +0.5 with a fair value moneyline of (+105).  But these were conservative lines.. I think Seattle wins by a touchdown.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I have the game lined at SEA +0.5 with a fair value moneyline of (+105).  But these were conservative lines.. I think Seattle wins by a touchdown.

 
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Posted: #89
any thoughts on the vikings? will you be making a seperate plays thread
 
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Posted: #90
Silly have you finalized your 1pm picks? I know you listed your leans - sorry about to board a plane so wanted to place some bets
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by terpnskins:

Silly have you finalized your 1pm picks? I know you listed your leans - sorry about to board a plane so wanted to place some bets

 
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Posted: #92
Here's a direct link to the Sunday Night game.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8gd-be68XCvc3pIdkphWVk4ajA/edit
 
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Posted: #93
The spreadsheets are nice work, thanks for sharing them. 
 
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Posted: #94
No MNF?
 
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Posted: #95
Monday night game posted.
 
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Posted: #96
Here's a direct link:

 
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Posted: #97
Silly been tailing for awhile, love your work, any leans on the baseball? Do you feel the jets are a live home dog?
 
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Posted: #98
so whats the play
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by 3rd-aveballer:

Silly been tailing for awhile, love your work, any leans on the baseball? Do you feel the jets are a live home dog?

No leans on baseball today.. the lines are extremely tight.  I like the over tonight but I think oddsmakers set a fair line on the side... the Jets are truly deserving of catching 9 points at home against the Texans.  They're THAT bad and the Texans are THAT good.
 
 
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Posted: #100
will you have a play?
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