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WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

People are playing the Rams tonight just because they think it's a 'sharp' play or because Arizona is due to 'come back to earth'.  Neither of these are sound reasons to make a bet.  Handicap the match-up.  How many offensive touchdowns do the Rams have this season?

 

Not disagreeing with you bro, but you have to look at everything when betting on football. Letdowns, lookaheads, shorts weeks etc.....it all adds up. Its never as easy as simply looking at stat sheets.

 

bol


I definitely agree.  A team that gives 110% can overcome huge statistical disadvantages if their opponent is only giving 90%.  Determining who will want it more - is one of the toughest jobs in professional football handicapping.
 
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Posted: #52
Did ARI came to play last night?  All I saw was Kolb on the ground most of the time.  He was running for his life throughout the game.  Kid gotta learn to throw the ball away every now and then....
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Few games I'm leaning on:

Indy +8
Denver +7 / ML
Baltimore -6
Cleveland +10 (-120)
Philadelphia +3.5 / ML
Seattle +3 / ML

I like the points for INDY.  I can't mess with NE.  This team is just crazy at times. 

Liking Cleveland a lot too. 

 

BOL to you, Si1ly. 

 
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Posted: #54
Great work quantifying the data and presenting it in nice tabular format.  You could take it a step further by adding some graphics (see Tufte).  There's money to be made from those edges!
 
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Posted: #55
Do you plan to have MLB playoff stat sheets? 
 
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Posted: #56
 
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Posted: #57
Enjoy ur MLB play.. I c value on the wild card game last night.
I took two dogs and got paid $$$ .. All thx to ur sheets post on the regular season. Learn a lot and helpful too.  I looking forward on the nfl season ... Thx again .
Si1ly .... 
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by kikkoman10:

Enjoy ur MLB play.. I c value on the wild card game last night.
I took two dogs and got paid $$$ .. All thx to ur sheets post on the regular season. Learn a lot and helpful too.  I looking forward on the nfl season ... Thx again .
Si1ly .... 

I just posted a thread in the MLB forums for my sheets during the postseason.  I have the play-in games uploaded and I will be adding games on a daily basis as needed.
 
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Posted: #59
It work is greatly appreciate.... Thx 
 
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Posted: #60
Been following since baseball, helped turn my season around. Looking forward to a profitable NFL season....
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by NYBUILT:

Been following since baseball, helped turn my season around. Looking forward to a profitable NFL season....

14-2 on the season so far.  I'm looking over a few plays tomorrow.  Currently eyeing WASH +3.5, ATL@WAS Over, SEA ML, PHI +3.5, CLE +10 (-120), IND +8
 
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Posted: #62
 
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Posted: #63
Already have Bmore ML on back end of parlay..Your sheet likes them, any reason its not one of your leans?
 
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Posted: #64
Can't wait to see your plays for today. Stay hot! BOL
 
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Posted: #65
like em all but philly  gl bro 
 
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Posted: #66
Still going over a few things.  I'll have my plays for the 1 o'clock games finalized in the next hour or so..


Somebody asked why Baltimore isn't a lean.. and it's because I don't like laying a touchdown of road chalk no matter what the numbers say.
 
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Posted: #67


Locked in:

4:05 EST - Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115)
 
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Posted: #68
 
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Posted: #69
 
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Posted: #70
Seahawks went down to +2 a little bit ago. Your local not very smart. Or you just moved the line!

GL

 
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Posted: #71
Intelligent and informative, thank you very much.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Seahawks went down to +2 a little bit ago. Your local not very smart. Or you just moved the line!

GL


Bought in this morning around 7:00 EST.  He had the price at +2.5 (+105) so I bought the hook and played it at 3.  I almost played the moneyline here.. I don't think the spread will come into play.  Carolina doesn't have the run defense to contain Seattle's offense.  I also expect a let down after last weeks crushing last minute loss to the Falcons.
 
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Posted: #73
cross over sunday,,,will  the home teams win,,,hmmmm..   ck out the last 15 yrs
 
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Posted: #74
What do you mean luckyly?  Elaborate..
 
 
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Posted: #75
on the atl/wash over 51

wouldnt at all be surprised to see this reached midway through the third quarter

marshawn lynch will not be able to be contained today...
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