Week 2 Value Lines

Dallas is going to be public darlings all year and I hate it.  If Dallas losses Sunday, they might be a good bet in week 3 going into Chicago.

Here is my early leans from my Tues blog entry.

NFL Week 2 Early Leans

I'm in the early stages of week 2 capping. But I can tell you I'm gonna be on the Eagles on Mon. I'd say grab any 6.5's you see or can buy for -115 or so. I'd be stunned if this line closed anything less than 7. If it goes down, EVEN BETTER.  Anyway, I expect a fully focused effort from the Eagles. Reid is solid off a loss and very good in prime time. He also seems to put his best game plans together for division games. They are also an excellent Teaser leg. They will not lose this game!!!!

I think the Texans are for real, but the best line on them is yet to come, hopefully. It's mostly 6.5 now so +7  is a good target to strike at.  The Giants are a train wreck, so it's gonna be hard to get value with the Packers. But I'd say grab whatever you can ASAP, cuz this line is only going one way, and the Pack will probably close Favs.

Jax let the world down on Sun. And nobody will want to touch them laying double digits. But I think this is a good spot for them. This game will be a blowout. But don't lay more than 10. 10.5 is garbage.

The Raiders look interesting getting a bunch of points in a division game. They let a lot of people down too. But their offense showed some life, albeit against the Lions.

Early Leans
Eagles-6.5(-115)
Texans+7(-115)
Packers+1
Jaguars-10
Raiders+9.5/10

BOL Slingzz
Gary
blog.myspace.com/gary_philly

first off great discussion guys and i am throwing this disclaimer out that i am a dallas fan and my best friend is a Miami diehard so i hear alot about this team and i think i have a good pulse on both teams

first off in the miami washington game, miami gave up 2 sacks to a defense that set the NFL record last year for the least amount of sacks ever. Miami's offensive line is TERRIBLE, probably one of the worse in the NFL. they open no rushing lanes for Ronnie and the pass proctection is a joke. This was the first game the line practiced or played together because they spent the entire offseason and pre-season trying to figure out who would start. when then finally figured out they had no time to gel and not to mention the fact they are starting a rookie C and a second year player switching from RT to LT. needless to say its a mess which does not bode well for a pissed off defense and coach that specializes in pressuring the QB. Another aspect here is that Wade and Cameron know each other very well from there days in SD. Jason Garrett, dallas' offensive coordinator, was the QB coach for Miami for the past 2 years so he should have a good idea about the strengths and weaknesses of the miami defense which should help him call a good game.

Now the strength of miami's defense is the front 7. i doubt dallas will be able to run the ball good as Miami will surely focus on that after there run D was shredded by washington. the biggest mismatch in this game is the dallas recievers and TE's vs the miami secondary. miami just lost there most consistent player in the secondary for the year (yerimiah bell and if you ask any dolphin fan they will tell you he is a budding star and the only legitimate guy in the secondary), which does not bode well for stopping TO, Witten, Crayton and Co. While this seems like dallas has a huge advantage, i expect a good defensive effort from miami and the jury is still out on how effective dallas is a pass blocking. I think taylor and company will create some pressure, enough to hold dallas under 20 points.

There is no way in hell IMHO that this game goes over the posted total of 40.5. this is a classic overreaction to the dallas game as this total should be no higher then 36 IMO. I think dallas should win this game but it will be a close game. If newman plays i will play dallas if not i'll probably stay away but no matter what i am pounding the under in this game

Final score with terrance newman 17-10 dallas

final score without newman 17-16 dallas

 

terrance newman is a top 5 CB in this league IMO and he is shutdown corner so yes i think he would take at least 6 points off the board for miami...if he played against the giants the cowboys would have blown them out...no way burres catches 3 td's and 140 + yards against a CB (Newman) who has only allowed 1 TD pass in the past 2 years

Terrence Newman practiced today and he will know by FRIDAY is he will play or not.  I'll keep you guys updated.

Also Greg Ellis practiced today but I doubt he will be ready to play this Sunday.

Please do not look at the numbers they put up last year, last year there were injuries, locker room issues etc.  The year before they were #1 in Total Defense and this year are much more focused and definetly, definetly much better than Dallas's defense.

You are telling me not to look at the numbers they put up last year but you want to bring up their D from 2 years ago

You need to show me proof that Eli was pressured, because i did not see it at all.  Eli was calm and cool in the pocket and he wasnt getting rid of the ball early, how do you throw passes for first down yardage that often by getting rid of the ball early ?

Is Eli getting knocked out of the game enough proof of pressure?  He was great in the pocket i'm not arguing that.  The Giants gameplan was GREAT also, to me a 3 step drop and getting the ball out is getting the ball out early.

The reason he was getting first down yardage is because the corners were giving his an 8 yard cushion!!! They did  not want to get burnt deep and didnt really let them get deep after that first Plax bomb on the 3rd play!

P.s. I dont think Newman makes that much of a difference and that stat is hard to prove that he has only given up 1 TD in 2 years

Newman playing would have made a HUGE difference.  He is about as lock down a corner as you can get.  Take Champ Bailey away from Denvers D...would that make a difference?

That stat on Newman is hard to prove, is you are a fan of KC Joyner you could check out his book...the football scientist.

He breaks down every play for every player.  Two season ago he didnt give up one TD, and this is according to his head coach Parcells.

 

Actually Ronnie Brown faired a little better Stat wise then his counter part Cadillac Williams IMOP

 

And Cadillac was the big shit

good Luck Slingerz!

 

why do you think the Giants would have been blown out just because of Newman?...

Newman played in both games against them last season when the Giants won the first one 36-22 and lost the second by a fg... Plaxi and Shockey both scored in both games... so what makes him Superman this year?

Shockey was used the least of the receivers in this game and Toomer had 9 catches... if Plaxi would have been covered, Shockey would have been used more and there would be more running since that was working well also... it would have been a different game with a different gameplan, but to say a blowout because of one guy not being there makes no sense... that would be like saying Romo would have been pressured alot more ant they should have lost if Osi had not got hurt... bottom line, these two teams always play close against each other.. you need to expect that almost every time.