I like this play even more now that the Bears won last night. GB should be motivated enough playing a division game, but now that they need to win to stay tied for first, it's exta motivation. GB, despite all the injuries have continued to find ways to win and Aaron Rodgers is a winner. On the other side, the Vikes in my opinion have quit. That's not to say that they intentionally give up when playing the game, but you can tell they aren't into it. They know the season is done, they are waiting for their coach to get fired, and clearly have a next year mindset right now.
It's simple. GB has everything to play for and the Vikings don't.
0
Green Bay -3
I like this play even more now that the Bears won last night. GB should be motivated enough playing a division game, but now that they need to win to stay tied for first, it's exta motivation. GB, despite all the injuries have continued to find ways to win and Aaron Rodgers is a winner. On the other side, the Vikes in my opinion have quit. That's not to say that they intentionally give up when playing the game, but you can tell they aren't into it. They know the season is done, they are waiting for their coach to get fired, and clearly have a next year mindset right now.
It's simple. GB has everything to play for and the Vikings don't.
I liked it earlier in the year when most of my picks were getting points. The last couple of weeks I find myself laying some chalk, but hey, if that's the right side whatta ya gonna do?
Althought they don't have the shut-down defense they once did, Baltimore still has playmakers on D. This week they should be salivating over a pathetic Panthers offense. Even true NFL followers would have a tough time naming 3 starters on this Panthers team.
Offensively, Baltimore has been starting to hit their stride. They took awhile to get going last week on Thursday Night Football, but it was a short week. Over the last 7 games, the Ravens have been averaging 25ppg and Joe Flacco has thrown for 14 TDs and only 2 INT's during those 7 games. I also like how they've been running the ball lately and should fare well against the weak part of Carolina's defense...the run. By the way, Carolina averages only 11ppg this year!!!
It's a big number, but if Baltimore can score 24+ points I just don't see how they don't cover.
0
Baltimore -10
I liked it earlier in the year when most of my picks were getting points. The last couple of weeks I find myself laying some chalk, but hey, if that's the right side whatta ya gonna do?
Althought they don't have the shut-down defense they once did, Baltimore still has playmakers on D. This week they should be salivating over a pathetic Panthers offense. Even true NFL followers would have a tough time naming 3 starters on this Panthers team.
Offensively, Baltimore has been starting to hit their stride. They took awhile to get going last week on Thursday Night Football, but it was a short week. Over the last 7 games, the Ravens have been averaging 25ppg and Joe Flacco has thrown for 14 TDs and only 2 INT's during those 7 games. I also like how they've been running the ball lately and should fare well against the weak part of Carolina's defense...the run. By the way, Carolina averages only 11ppg this year!!!
It's a big number, but if Baltimore can score 24+ points I just don't see how they don't cover.
By no means would I say that these 2 teams are offensive juggernaugts, but I like this situation. I like it for a few reasons:
1. The Titans somehow find a way to score points week in and week out as they currently rank 3rd in the league scoring 26 ppg.
2. The Redskins were flat out embarrassed on Monday night and if they have any pride, they should come out firing in this one.
3. The Redskins defense is awful. They rank 26th in ppg, 32nd in ypg, 31st in pypg, and 25th in rypg. I see them falling behind early in this game and going to the pass on offense. This is good for scoring points, especially when you consider the Titans rank 25th against the pass.
0
Wash / Tenn OVER 44
By no means would I say that these 2 teams are offensive juggernaugts, but I like this situation. I like it for a few reasons:
1. The Titans somehow find a way to score points week in and week out as they currently rank 3rd in the league scoring 26 ppg.
2. The Redskins were flat out embarrassed on Monday night and if they have any pride, they should come out firing in this one.
3. The Redskins defense is awful. They rank 26th in ppg, 32nd in ypg, 31st in pypg, and 25th in rypg. I see them falling behind early in this game and going to the pass on offense. This is good for scoring points, especially when you consider the Titans rank 25th against the pass.
I thought about taking Pitt to cover here, but I feel the under is the better play. I think these 2 teams matchup well for an under play.
What does Oakland want to do on offense? Run the ball!
What does Pittsburgh do better than any team in the NFL by a large margin? Stop the run!
When the Steelers have been beaten this year it has been through the air. Oakland is not equipped to come out firing and will remain committed to the run. I think they will have some success with some of the injuries the Steelers have, but not in large chunks that lead to quick scoring drives. The steelers have yet to give up a run longer than 20 yards this season...they are the only team that can make that claim.
Whenever you bet an O/U the risk is in the turnovers. Will the turnovers come in their own end leading to quick points or will they occur when a team is going in for a score and thus taking points off the board. Who really knows for sure, but I hoping for the latter.
0
Oak / Pitt UNDER 41.5
I thought about taking Pitt to cover here, but I feel the under is the better play. I think these 2 teams matchup well for an under play.
What does Oakland want to do on offense? Run the ball!
What does Pittsburgh do better than any team in the NFL by a large margin? Stop the run!
When the Steelers have been beaten this year it has been through the air. Oakland is not equipped to come out firing and will remain committed to the run. I think they will have some success with some of the injuries the Steelers have, but not in large chunks that lead to quick scoring drives. The steelers have yet to give up a run longer than 20 yards this season...they are the only team that can make that claim.
Whenever you bet an O/U the risk is in the turnovers. Will the turnovers come in their own end leading to quick points or will they occur when a team is going in for a score and thus taking points off the board. Who really knows for sure, but I hoping for the latter.
I like what the Rams have done this year and they have a lot to look forward to in the coming years. Bradford is playing really well for a rookie and the defense has played well, especially at home. That being said, the Falcons are a better team and in the second half you start to see teams realize that it's time to start playing like the playoff team that they are. Matty Ice looked really good last week against the Ravens right from the start and was very accurate. They have a balanced attack with Turner running the ball and I think playing in a dome helps them feel more like they are at home than away.
0
Atlanta -3
I like what the Rams have done this year and they have a lot to look forward to in the coming years. Bradford is playing really well for a rookie and the defense has played well, especially at home. That being said, the Falcons are a better team and in the second half you start to see teams realize that it's time to start playing like the playoff team that they are. Matty Ice looked really good last week against the Ravens right from the start and was very accurate. They have a balanced attack with Turner running the ball and I think playing in a dome helps them feel more like they are at home than away.
Plain and simple, the Pats are just playing better football right now and the Colts are dealing with injuries. I think getting the Pats at only a field goal in this game is a gift when you consider the injuries the Colts have, the revenge factor from how last years game ended, and the fact that the Colts defensive ends just aren't as fast and scary when they play outside of the dome.
I believe the injuries that the Colts have shouldn't be understated as you can clearly see in the last few games that Manning and his receivers are out of sync. The lack of practice time with these guys have really hurt their timing and have made the colts average. I could see this game getting lopsided in the second half.
0
New England -3
Plain and simple, the Pats are just playing better football right now and the Colts are dealing with injuries. I think getting the Pats at only a field goal in this game is a gift when you consider the injuries the Colts have, the revenge factor from how last years game ended, and the fact that the Colts defensive ends just aren't as fast and scary when they play outside of the dome.
I believe the injuries that the Colts have shouldn't be understated as you can clearly see in the last few games that Manning and his receivers are out of sync. The lack of practice time with these guys have really hurt their timing and have made the colts average. I could see this game getting lopsided in the second half.
Giants backers will say that those choosing Philly this week is because of their performance this past Monday night. Maybe, but not me. The win Monday was impressive but you can't bet on the NFL based on last week.
Clearly this is a big game for both teams as it is a division game and for 1st place. Giants backers will say that the NY will come out and win because they were embarrassed last week, but what about the confidence and the momentum the Eagles have? Shouldn't we consider that as well? Giants backers also keep pointing to the fact that Vick and the Eagles haven't really played any good defenses. True, but who have the Giants played of significance?
I like the Eagles here for 2 main reasons.
1. Just like I said last week, I like what Vick does to the other teams pass rush. If you rush him aggressively, he will step up and slide over. If you come under control, you will give him extra time. Either way, he allows his speedy receivers to run those crossing routes and catch the ball in space.
2. Manning is a turnover machine. Vick hasn't thrown a pick yet. While it's not likely that Vick will continue that ratio for the entire season, I will side with the QB that's at home, who doesn't turn the ball over, and can make plays with his feet.
As far as the over goes, I don't see how this game doesn't go over. Both teams have big play capability. The Giants have a number of long runs this year and the Eagles have a number of deep pass plays for big yards this year. Both teams can score. Both teams will score. Add in a couple of Manning turnovers and you have an over.
0
Philly -2.5 (hook)
NY / Philly OVER 48
Giants backers will say that those choosing Philly this week is because of their performance this past Monday night. Maybe, but not me. The win Monday was impressive but you can't bet on the NFL based on last week.
Clearly this is a big game for both teams as it is a division game and for 1st place. Giants backers will say that the NY will come out and win because they were embarrassed last week, but what about the confidence and the momentum the Eagles have? Shouldn't we consider that as well? Giants backers also keep pointing to the fact that Vick and the Eagles haven't really played any good defenses. True, but who have the Giants played of significance?
I like the Eagles here for 2 main reasons.
1. Just like I said last week, I like what Vick does to the other teams pass rush. If you rush him aggressively, he will step up and slide over. If you come under control, you will give him extra time. Either way, he allows his speedy receivers to run those crossing routes and catch the ball in space.
2. Manning is a turnover machine. Vick hasn't thrown a pick yet. While it's not likely that Vick will continue that ratio for the entire season, I will side with the QB that's at home, who doesn't turn the ball over, and can make plays with his feet.
As far as the over goes, I don't see how this game doesn't go over. Both teams have big play capability. The Giants have a number of long runs this year and the Eagles have a number of deep pass plays for big yards this year. Both teams can score. Both teams will score. Add in a couple of Manning turnovers and you have an over.
I keep going back and forth on whether or not to pull the trigger on the Browns. I think Cleveland is the right play here, but I don't like to bet games that involve a Jekyl and Hyde team and the Jaguars (to me) are a Jekyl and Hyde team.
0
I keep going back and forth on whether or not to pull the trigger on the Browns. I think Cleveland is the right play here, but I don't like to bet games that involve a Jekyl and Hyde team and the Jaguars (to me) are a Jekyl and Hyde team.
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