Quote Originally Posted by samhigh:
Roberto, that is awesome info. Thanks man. This is my first year seriously Capping, and I have a question for you about one of the trends you have identified.
Begin Quote:Totals left >>>
NY Jets- Oak Under
NY Jets -Oak under >>>
Under is 8-0 in Jets last 8 games following an ATS win
Under is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games in Oct
End Quote
Looking at the Jets' trends over the last several years, should I attempt to account for the replacement of Pennington by Brett Farve.
In 2008, over the first five games, the Jets have averaged 28.2 points per game.
In 2007, they only averaged 19.2 points per game over the first 5 games.
Same thing in 2006, only 19.2 points per game over the first 5 games.
This year, the Radiers have allowed 27 points per game (average) over the first five games. They are only averaging 16.2 points scoring over the fist five games.
So adding up these totals, we get 44.4 points for this game (16.2 for OAK and 28.2 for NYJ).
Essentially, my question is should I just focus on the trends in this game, or should I adjust for the change in Quarterback by the Jets and the decision making of the Raiders to let Jamarcus Russel throw a countless number of interceptions in each game?
You mention the under for this game (41), but the scores so far this year lean more towards a total of 44+.
Any feedback is greatly appreciated.
samhigh...I just take the numbers for what they are ...
and it's not not an exact science for me ...
The Jets have gone gone under 3 times and gone over 2 times since the season began with Brett Frave as their quarterback .
One trend applies to 7 seasons and only in October , and the other applies to the last 8 games after the NY Jets have had an ATS win . Does this have any bearing on this game .
No, it doesn't .
In looking at these trends , I don't concern myself with who the present quarterback is nor do I care who it was in years past , unless the trend specifically involves the quarterback.
When searching for trends , I try not to concern myself with game analysis , injuries, weather, line changes , and so on ...
It's all about the numbers . and not about strategy.
It's important to accept a trend for what it is , and take it from there.
You may deem a particular trend or most for that matter to be completely irrelevant and not worthy of consideration ..and that's fine.
The lines are established based on a given matchup and public perception , and not on the past .
This gives trends inmunity since they are hardly the basis for how the lines are determined .
As an example , when the NY Jets played the New England Patriots earlier this year , a strong trend had been established with the dominance of one team over another . With the injury to Tom Brady , this past trend had no relevance on the line or the opinions of bettors , except that the trend was still valid . It was the New England Patriots that had the NY Jets # , not Tom Brady .
The trend stated that team A had a significant ATS advantage over team B , and that's all . Lines get adjusted but the trends might remain . If its not about Chad Pennington , then leave him out of it . Do not cap trends ,. They are what they are and thrive in their simplicity .
You can cap games with trends in mind and you can cap games based only on trends , but be aware of the difference.
Then again , you can ignore them completely .
That is your choice .
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