Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:
However the info you provide is nice, I forgot to add that
Thank you .,. and this is the Trends & things thread where on ocassion good information might be available that someone considers noteworthy . But my personal record is of no consequence here , since its only about content , and the monitoring of a couple of what I consider to be strong trends .
During last year's srong run, I envisioned coming up with an underdog trend pick of the week that if successful throughout the year would at the very least serve as a warning side to someone backing the favorite on the opposite side that week.
This I conceived to be necessary , just as the Demmaples sucker bet thread is a must see every week .It is far easier to find reasons to back a favorite , specially a strong favorite over its weaker opponent .
This is why , the ocassional bettor backs normally a favorite . We have an advantage here as we get to hear differerent devil's advocate arguments and some are as simple as a stat or a trend .
How many threads have you seen that start off with " give me a reason why I should not load up on the NY Giants ( i.e ) week ...?
Posters , don't normally ask : Give me a reason why I should not load up on the Raiders this week . If the Raiders are playing a much better team , the poster will have no trouble coming up with more than one reason as to why he should fade the Raiders .
If the answer is < the offensive line is banged up or the corner backs don't match up well with the tall wide receivers , that's analytical .
If the answer is the Raiders just seem to have their number , then a trend will back this up .
If the answer is these division rivals always cover on the road , that's a trend to consider ,
If the answer happens to be Oakland is 14 - 2 ATS after not allowing more than 150 yards rushing previous game .
You might simply conclude that when team A stops the pass well, they historically cover their next game as it might affect the game plan of the opposing coach reviewing tape .
If the answer : Oakland is 6-1 ATS coming off the bye and this team happens to be 1-6 ATS the year in question as they come off the bye , you might simply conclude that the week of rest provides this bad team with a much needed boost resulting in better preparation, intensity , and focus . Something to consider even though they might not match up well against their opponent and their record YTD is so weak .
If the answer is teams that are 1-6 ATS playing teams that are 6-1 ATS have a 10-0 ATS record last 10. You might not conclude anything other than you're going against a perfect trend that is hard to explain, but it's there .
How you perceive that information , how you assimilate it , how you apply it , how you break it down , how you accept it , how you reject it , that's entirely up to you.
There are times when a trend is totally meaningless as it spans decades with different teams that have no bearing on this years' squads . But , you have to congratulate the guy or gal that has successfully won 57 % of his bets following these more obscure trends .
If they work for that person over a long period , then that trend is meaningful because they win !
I think outside the box , and sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't . On ocassion I get burned , as it happened in week 4 , which by the way you provided incorrect information since I did not go 1-12 .
That's the equivalent to me putting up a trend that sounded about right and never looking it up or use reliable information for it .
The volume of bets was in response to an aberration in favor of the Favs and overs to start the season . The correction did not come until week 6, and mostly came in on the " totals " not so much on the sides .
But , making umbrella bets is risky and money management needs to be considered . It works if you are within budget and are willing to see it though its ending .
In other words, If you see that New England , the very best team in the NFL has gone 8-0 ATS to start the season , and they continue to cover larger and larger spreads , you might decide to fade that team for the remainder of the season.
Fair enough , you are not talking about an average team playing on the West coast that sneaks up on you covering spreads by 1 or two points week in and week out . Think San Diego a few years ago , or a team like Tennessee recently covering all those games as a dog. You are talking about the best team in football , covering massive spreads 8 times in a row .
Alright , so you fade then in week 9 and get burned by them in week 10 , and decide you were wrong , and follow them on week 11 , etc.
You have to follow through your conviction . Simply fading them for the remainding 8 games is probably a better strategy that being caught on the wrong side of capping their individual games .
Or you can simply stay away . But going back to the " umbrella " bets such as I did that week . If I decide that through 3 weeks , the overs are wayyy above their mean , and the favorites are wayyy above their mean , then I can try to focus on the dogs and unders by tilting my scale in the pool of choices in that direction or choose that the discrepancy is so massive that I am going to go the other way across the board until we get back closer to the medium.
Well, it was premature , and there were going to be 8 fav/overs as opposed to 4 dog/unders that afternoon on the heels of another set of poor individual choices in the morning games , resulting in one of my worst weeks ever .
I had no strategy whatsoever , and I paid the price .
Week 6 , I was tempted to bet the unders across the board , but I am not going to make any " umbrella " bets anytime soon . If anything else , I will shift my focus for individual capping of games if I deem that the lines might be inflated due to the overwhelming amount of favs/ overs covering , and that is all .
Money management is a special focus of mine this year , and have been very consitent in the units wagered and only select higher units on sides or totals I premeditated to be worthy of a larger wager , not because I lost a whole bunch in week 3 and chased it in week 4 . The idea is to bet more when you are winning , and less when you are losing , not the other way around .
All of this doesn't matter here , because this is the trends & things thread , and it has nothing to do with where I put my hard earned money my friend .
Going back to the selection of trends , I decided to add a favorite trend pick as well, and monitor its success or failure separate from the underdog trend pick earlier this year ,
And just last week , I incorporated a ' totals " trend pick as well . If none are worthy of consideration in one of those categories I reserve the right not to make a selection , and simply pass .
But, again I will attempt to retain the focus of this thread to its original concept , otherwise it makes for an impossible read.
Glad you find the information provided useful Rookie_Bookie.
and by the way ...Do not tail Roberto this week ...or for that matter any other week ...
you don't have to tail if you think you 're good
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