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Trends & Things week 7 2008 NFL

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Posted: #51
k.c.
 
oak
 
minny........
 
BookerT
 
 
 
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Posted: #52
 
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Posted: #53
Hey Roberto...love your write ups...and BTW when you update the Hilton contest this week please make sure to include me at LW: 4-1 and YTD at 17-13...GL
 
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Posted: #54
Nice job sportsladyd last week ...!
 
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Using a different database and not having included OT games
( I will adjust this , and use covers ...but covers scoreboard goes back only to 2006-2007 , so I have to go team by team )
Anyways ...my findings for 2005-2006 season for teams that lost by 3 or less . This is their record following game >>>
 
All teams : 33-23-2 won ATS I need to update OT games and use same database ....
 
Dogs : 16-16-1 ATS
Favs : 16-6-1 ATS
Pick : 1-1 ATS
 
Dogs of > 3 : 6-11-1  ATS
Dogs of >= 7 : 5-7-1 ATS
 
It validates my research from 2006-2007 & 20007-2008
I will update #'s when I have them
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #55
FYI, Larry Johnson is out this week (suspension). You think KC can run the ball with Jamaal Charles against Tenn's good run defense? 
 
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Posted: #56
ok love the facts. but what are the picks for this week  roberto??? just need 1 winner.
 
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Posted: #57
The winner of this week based upon Roberto's analysis is.......
 
HOUSTON (Big Time Over Detroit)
 
Book it... Bank It!
 
 
 
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Posted: #58
San Diego @ Buffalo
 
SD is 17-5 ATS last 22 games in Oct
SD is 12-4 ATS off an ATS win
SD is 13-3 ATS when total is between 42.5 to 49 points
SD is 16-4 ATS against conference opponents
Buff is 13-4 ATS last 17 games @ home
Buff is 11-3 ATS when lined between +3 to -3
Buff is 2-12 SU in the last 14 games vs AFC west
Over is 13-4-2 in Chargers last 19 road games
 
 
 
New Orleans @ Carolina
 
Road team is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings
Carolina is 10-2 ATS after scoring 6 points or less
Over is 25-8-2 in Saints last 35 road games vs team with a winning home record
Under is 21-8-1 in Panthers last 30 home games
Under is 5-0 last 5 meetings in Carolina
Saints 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings in Carolina
 
Minnesota @ Chicago
 
Under is 23-8-1 in Vikings last 32 games following a SU win
Over is 17-5 in Bears last 22 home games
Over is 24-9-1 in Bears last 34 games vs NFC
Underdog is 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings
( Vikings are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings in Chicago )
 
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
 
Steelers are 23-8-1 ATS last 32 games in Oct
Steelers are 2-11 ATS away off a SU win
Over is 17-4 in Bengals games off 6+ Su losses
Under is 6-1 in last meetings in Cincinnati
Steelers are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 meetings in Cincinnati
 
Teneessee @ Kansas City
 
Under is 12-3-1 in Titans last 16 games following a SU win
KC is 21-8 ATS off a road loss by 14 + points
 
Baltimore @ Miami
 
Miami is 8-20-1 vs a team with a losing record
Baltimore is 7-22 ATS in the last 29 road games  
Miami is 11-28-1 ATS in the last 40 home games
Miami is 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 home games vs a team with a losing road record
Miami is 10-2 ATS last 12 games vs Baltimore
Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss
Ravens are 5-15 ATS in the last 20 games following a loss of more than 14 points
 
 
San Francisco @ NY Giants
 
NYG are 17-5 in the last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points
NYG are 13-5 ATS vs conference opponents
San Francisco is 4-11 ATS last 15 games vs NFC
San Francisco is 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 games following a DD loss at home .
San Francisco is 0-4 ATS last 4 meetings
San Francisco is 5-13 ATS on grass
 
Dallas @ St Louis
 
Dallas is 1-8 ATS last 9 vs NFC
St Louis is 5-17 ATS vs a team with a winning record
St Louis is 4-13 ATS as underdogs
St Louis is 3-11 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49
Over is 16-4 in Rams Home games
Under is 45-19-3 in Cowboys last 67 vs a team with a losing record
Under is 14-6-1 in Cowboys last 21 road games vs a team with a losing home record  
 
First round elimination from this group :
 
San Diego @ Buffalo >>> Buffalo , San diego , under
New Orleans @ Carolina >>> Carolina , over , under
Minnesota @ Chicago >>> Minnesota , Chicago, over , under
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati >>> Cincinnati, under ,
Tennessee @ Kansas City >>> Tennessee , Over
Baltimore @ Miami >>> Baltimore , over , under
San Francisco @ New York Giants >>> San francisco , over , under
Dallas @ St Louis >>> St Louis , Dallas , over , under
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #60
adding to New orleans @ Carolina game :
Carolina: 10-2 ATS after scoring 6 points or less
 
adding to Minn @ Chicago :
Chicago is 4- 13 SU ( ranks 31st )  & 7-10 ATS ( ranks  25th  pre-bye    )  before a bye week
 
Adding to Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati :
Pittsburgh is 6-11 ATS ( ranks 30th post-bye  ) after a bye week
 
adding to Tennessee @ Kansas city :
Over is 12-5 in Tennessee games coming off a bye ( ranks 1st  post-bye   )
 
 
Detroit @ Houston
 
Houston is 4-14 ATS off a home win
Under is 18-5 in Lions games Away if total is 45.5 or higher
Detroit is 5-14 ATS in the last 19 road games
Houston is 4-2 SU  ( ranks 6th prebye ) & 5-1 ATS ( ranks 1st pre-bye ) before a bye game
Detroit is 1-6 ATS following an ATS win ( that broke a 3 or more ATS loss ) since 2000 & 0-6 ATS since 2001 .
The combined score for these 6 losses is 96 - 214 averaging 16 points in favor vs 35.7 points for the opposition .
5 of the 6 ATS losses were against AFC opponents
Detroit is coming off a loss by <= 3 ( or OT )  and the Lions are an underdog of >= 7  this week .
Underdogs of >= 7 are 5-23 ATS ( 17.8 % ) since 2006 , including 0-1 ATS this year & 1-12 ATS last 12 games .
AFC vs NFC angle >>
 AFC has been favored in 10 of the games going 6-4 ATS while,  the NFC has been favored in 10 of the games going 7-3 ATS
 
 
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Note : Houston's record coming off home wins is troubling
 
Indianapolis @ Green Bay
 
Over is 10-1 in Packers' last 10 games on grass
Under is 6-0 in Colts games coming off a 21+ point win
Over is 14-2 in Packers last 16 games following an ATS win
 
Colts are 7-0 ATS last 7 games in Oct
Packers are 1-6-2 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record
Packers are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games following a SU win
 
Packers qualify for a 13-70 ATS situation that works against teams in Week's 7 to 12 that have a very high Interception Differential (INTD) season-to-date.

Teams with an INTD of >= 0.75 that are also facing an opponent with a below-average Passing Game Rating have that 18.6 % winning percenatge since 1994
 
Favourites (or Underdogs of <=7 points) are 87-197 ATS between Week 4 and 15 when they have an Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (OHPA) that is > than their current opponent's OHPA. Teams are 2-6 ATS this season .
Green Bay meets both of these conditions as a play against .


 
 
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[Quote: Originally Posted by RobertoFiory]
Note : Houston's record coming off home wins is troubling
 
But how many times did they face a team like Detroit in that situation? I think the other trends outweigh the one above.
This game is more of a play against DET than a play on Houston.
 
Plus Houston didnt cover in the win over MIA, barely won... so I dont think they come into this game too happy with themselves which is what happens when you go 4-14 off a win
 
Houston
 
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adding : total by which the Lions have been outscored in the first quarter >>> 40-0 !
 
Green Bay is 12-6 SU ( ranks 6th pre-bye ) & 5-11 ATS ( ranks 30th pre-bye
 
adding : Coming into this season since 1997 there have been 107 games where there was a road Favorite of 7 or more points .
The record for these RF is 38-63-3 ATS
 
Last year there were 10 road favs getting 7 or more points .
These Road favorites went 2-8 ATS & lost 4 games SU
 
This year,  the RF of >= 7  are 3-2 ATS covering  in each victory and losing SU in their 2 losses
This week there are 2 RF of >= 7 with Tennessee @ Kansas City & Dallas @ St Louis
 
Double digit favorites are being blanked so far this year going 0-5 ATS while losing SU in three ocassions.
The two games they did cover , they won by the slimmest of margins ( 1, 3 )  
 
However , when the line has been - 9 or - 9.5 these favorites are doing much better winning by 34, 24, 19, 17, 12 , and 10 points .
The 2 times they didn't cover , they lost the game outright .
 
In summary , this year >>
Favorites > 9.5  are 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU
Favorites = 9 or 9.5 are 6-2 ATS with a margin of victory of over 19 points and when not covering , losing the game outright ( 2X )
 
NY Jets @ Oakland
 
Oakland is 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games .
Oakland is 7-17 ATS in their last 17 games in Oct
Oakland is 18-43-1 ATS last 62 games following a SU loss
Oakland is 3-12 ATS as HD of <= 3 since 1992
Oakland is 6-15 ATS after  2 or more consecutive losses
NY Jets are 2-6 ATS vs a team with a losing record
Under is 8-0 in Jets last 8 games following an ATS win
Under is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games in Oct
 
Note : NY Jets are getting well over 75 % of bets on their behalf , yet the line has not budged ( I see sporstsinteraction only with 3.5 )
These are precisely the type of sides that Bet tracker aims to highlight , and going against these heavily sided teams has achieved around 60 % as per documented on a certain site .
Though this percentage does not include tracking line movements whether they go with or against ( reverse ) the heavily sided teams . It does track the percentages earlier in the week before much line fluctuation occurs .
 
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Posted: #64
ALways good stuff...
 
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Posted: #65
 
 
Cleveland @ Washington
 
Cleveland is 10-1 ATS off an over
Cleveland is 13-3 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Cleveland is 13-3 ATS in last 16 games played on grass
Wash is 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 rushing yards or less BB games
Washington is 2-10-1 ATS vs a team with a losing record
Over is 10-2 in the past 12 Was October home games
Under is 9-2 ATs in Browns last 11 games overall
 
Cleveland is a strong candidate ...
Washington is out , over , under as well
 
 
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Seattle @ Tampa Bay
 
Seattle is 1-8 ATS in Oct games
Seattle is 6-26 ATS last 32 games in Oct
Seattle is 0-5 ATS last 5 road games
Tampa Bay is 10-4 ATS vs a team with a losing record
TB is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings
TB is 4-0 ATS  in the last 4 vs NFC
Tampa Bay is 23-7-3 ATS last 33 home games vs a team with a losing road record
Seattle is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings
Under is 5-0 last 5 meetings
Over is 7-0-1 in Seahawks last 8 games overall
Road team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings
 
Seattle, over , under are eliminated from contention
 
 
 
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Denver @ New England
 
Denver is 16-3 SU last 19 games vs New England
Denver is 14-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992
Denver is 9-19 ATS vs Conference opponents
Denver is 3-11 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Denver is 0-11 ATS in games where the total is between 42,5 and 49 points last 2 season
New England is 10-1 ATS in October games
New England is 15-4-1 ATS last 20 games  coming off a SU loss
New England is 0-5 ATS last games in Denver
New England is 1-9 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards prvious game
Over is 12-3 in Denver last 15 vs AFC
Over is 20-6-1 in Broncos last 27 games overall
Under is 20-6-1 in Patriots last 27 home games vs a team with a winning road record
 
Denver , over , under are  eliminated from contention
 
 
 
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Posted: #68
Eliminated :
 
Buffalo, San Diego , Under ( SD left )
Carolina . over , under ( New Orleans left )
Minnesota , Chicago , over , under ( none left )
Cincinnati , under , Pittsburgh ( bad record coming off a bye & pitt is 2-11 ATS away off  SU win + RF of >= 7 ) ( over left )
Tennessee , Over , under ( Tennessee ranks # 1 in post-bye overs ) ( Kansas city left )
Baltimore , over , under ( Miami left )
San Francisco , over , under ( NY Giants left )
St Louis , Dallas , over , under ( none left )
Detroit , over ( Houston , under left )
Green Bay , under ( Indianapolis, over )
Oakland, NY Jets , over  ( Under left )
Washington , under, over  ( cleveland left )
Seattle, over , under ( Tampa Bay left )
Denver , over , under ( New England left )
 
 
Favorites remaining :
 
New Orleans , Miami , NY Giants , Houston , Indianapolis ,
Tampa Bay , New England
 
Underdogs remaining :
 
San Diego , Kansas City, Cleveland
 
Totals :
 
Pitt OVER , Det Under , GB Over , Oak Under ,
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #69
Great write up, tons of info. Really helps me with my picks.
 
Thanks Roberto!
 
 
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Posted: #70
The  trends :
 
Miami >>>
 
Miami is 10-2 ATS last 12 games vs Baltimore
Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss
Ravens are 5-15 ATS in the last 20 games following a loss of more than 14 points
 
San Diego >>>
 
SD is 17-5 ATS last 22 games in Oct
SD is 12-4 ATS off an ATS win
SD is 13-3 ATS when total is between 42.5 to 49 points
SD is 16-4 ATS against conference opponents
 
Kansas city  >>>
 
Any HD of >= 6 is 25-5 ATS ( 83.3 % ) vs opponent that won 14 games or fewer prior year. ( KC vs Ten )
Kansas City presently getting 8.5 to 10 points @ home vs tennesse
 
NY Giants >>>
 
NYG are 17-5 ATS in the last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points
San Francisco is 4-11 ATS last 15 games vs NFC
San Francisco is 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 games following a DD loss at home .
 
New Orleans >>>
 
Road team is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings between Carolina & New Orleans
 
New England >>>
 
Denver is 0-11 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49
New England is 10-1 ATS in Oct games
New England is 15-4-1 ATS when coming off a loss
 
Tampa Bay >>>
 
Seattle is 6-26 ATS last 32 games in Oct
Tampa Bay is 23-7-3 ATS last 33 home games vs a team with a losing road record
 
Cleveland >>>
Washington is 2-10-1 ATS vs a team with a losing record
Cleveland is 10-1 ATS off an over
Cleveland is 13-3 ATS vs a team with a winning record
 
Indianapolis >>>
 
Green Bay is 5-11 ATS coming off a bye ( ranks 30th )
Colts are 7-0 ATS last 7 games in Oct
Packers qualify for a 13-70 ATS ( 15.7 % ) situation that works against teams in Week's 7 to 12 that have a very high Interception Differential (INTD) season-to-date.
 
Houston >>>
 
Underdogs of >= 7 are 5-23 ATS ( 17.8 % ) since 2006 , including 0-1 ATS this year & 1-12 ATS last 12 games . Against Detroit ( Houston )
Detroit is 5-14 ATS in the last 19 road games
Detroit is 1-6 ATS following an ATS win ( that broke a 3 or more ATS loss ) since 2000 & 0-6 ATS since 2001 .
The combined score for these 6 losses is 96 - 214 averaging 16 points in favor vs 35.7 points for the opposition .
5 of the 6 ATS losses were against AFC opponents
 
NY Jets -Oak under >>>
 
Under is 8-0 in Jets last 8 games following an ATS win
Under is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games in Oct
 
Detroit-Houston Under >>>
 
Under is 18-5 in Lions games Away if total is 45.5 or higher
 
Indianapolis-Green Bay Over >>>
 
Over is 14-2 in Packers last 16 games following an ATS win
Over is 10-1 in Packers' last 10 games on grass
 
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati Over >>>
 
Over is 17-4 in Bengals games off 6+ Su losses
 
San Diego-Buffalo Over  >>>
 
Over is 13-4-2 in Chargers last 19 road games
 
Eliminating Miami because of its strong trends against it ...
Eliminating New Orleans because of one strong trend on Carolina's side
Eliminating New England because of a strong trend on Denver's side
 
Favorites left >>>
 
NY Giants , Houston , Indianapolis , and Tampa Bay
 
Underdogs left >>>
 
San Diego, Kansas City , Cleveland
 
Totals left  >>>
 
NY Jets- Oak Under
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati Over
Detroit-Houston Under
Indianapolis-Green Bay Over
San Diego-Buffalo Over
 
 
***************************************
 
 
 
 

 
 
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Posted: #71
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring TENNESSEE in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in TENNESSEE games 52.9% of the time since 1992. (109-97)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in TENNESSEE games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-15)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 59.3% of the time since 1992. (112-77)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-9)
Edge=TENNESSEE
 
 
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Posted: #72
Week 7 actual Hilton Contest **TOP 5**

#1 Indy          115
#2 Chicago      112
#3 Buffalo       103
#4 Houston       98
#5 NY Jets        92


Current Leader: Fezzik 23-6-1
This weeks selections: Buffalo - Dallas - Chicago - Houston - Washington

 
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Posted: #73
Man I would like SD off the trends but 61% of the public is on SD and the line has moved in the opposite direction from SD-2 to Buff -1  
 
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Posted: #74
Roberto, that is awesome info.  Thanks man.  This is my first year seriously Capping, and I have a question for you about one of the trends you have identified.

Begin Quote:
Totals left  >>>
NY Jets- Oak Under

NY Jets -Oak under >>>
 
Under is 8-0 in Jets last 8 games following an ATS win
Under is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games in Oct
End Quote

Looking at the Jets' trends over the last several years, should I attempt to account for the replacement of Pennington by Brett Farve.

In 2008, over the first five games, the Jets have averaged 28.2 points per game.

In 2007, they only averaged 19.2 points per game over the first 5 games.

Same thing in 2006, only 19.2 points per game over the first 5 games.

This year, the Radiers have allowed 27 points per game (average) over the first five games.  They are only averaging 16.2 points scoring over the fist five games.

So adding up these totals, we get 44.4 points for this game (16.2 for OAK and 28.2 for NYJ).

Essentially, my question is should I just focus on the trends in this game, or should I adjust for the change in Quarterback by the Jets and the decision making of the Raiders to let Jamarcus Russel throw a countless number of interceptions in each game?

You mention the under for this game (41), but the scores so far this year lean more towards a total of 44+.

Any feedback is greatly appreciated.




 
 
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mucho!!!
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