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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4

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Posted: #51
Last scenario where on MNF there was a Road Favorite of 7 or more , Chicago Bears were favroed by 10 over the hosting Arizona Cardinals
 
Chicago managed to win 24-23 ..and not cover
 
Before that , it was in 2004
 
New England visited Miami as a 9.5 point favorite ...and went on to lose the game by a score of 29-28
 
It should also be noted the similarity of the situation from last year involving the Chicago Bears and this year's New England Patriots >>>
 
On week 8 2006 , Chicago was favored by 16.5 points over the SF 49ers  same spread as New England was favored over the Bills last week )
The Bears won the game 41-10 easily covering the large spread
Then >>>
 
On week 9 Chicago traveled , to face another conference opponent as a 10 point Favorite in Arizona on MNF ...
Chicago managed a 1 point victory
 
The time before that , it involved Denver on the road giving up 7 points to Baltimore who covered the 7 point spread and tacked on 11 more
 
some information ...compliments of DogPlaya ...
 
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Posted: #52
Seattle Seahawks (2-1, 1-1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1, 1-1-1)
Seattle is 7-17 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 1/2 points or less.
San Francisco is 8-15 as dogs after failing to cash as dogs and 6-10 ATS at home following a double-digit loss.
Seattle had won six straight versus the 49ers (4-2 ATS) until losing and failing in both encounters last year.
The 'under' is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
This is an important statement game for the 49ers
Seattle has Pit next week (they lost to AZ with Cin on Deck)

History: 49ers won the last 2 meetings. Seahawks are 3-7 ATS on the road since 2006. Matt Hasselbeck is 6-13 ATS as a road favorite.


Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0, 3-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2, 2-0-1)

The Steelers could be looking ahead to their Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks. Ken Whisenhunt, meanwhile, would love to beat the team that passed on him as a head coaching candidate
Pittsburgh has cashed four straight and nine of its last 11 dating back to 2006. The Steelers are 16-8-1 ATS off a double-digit win.
However, they are 1-7 as road favorites off a double-digit SU win and 6-16-1 as non-division away favorites.
Pittsburgh has 'covered' at a 13-2-1 clip as non-conference chalk overall.
Arizona is 7-18 ATS at home in September and it has floundered in 10 of 12 as non-conference dogs of more than three points.
Steelers are 20-7 ATS in October since 2000. Ben Roethlisberger is 37-11 as a starter (31-17 ATS).
Matt Leinart is 8-3 ATS as a starter.



Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2, 1-2)
The home team has held the aces in the AFC West rivalry, getting the cheese at a 7-1-1 rate.
The SU winner is 21-3-2 ATS.
San Diego is 13-3 as home favorites in September.
The Chargers have 'covered' 12 of 15 off a non-division game versus an opponent with revenge. Kansas City is 2-7 as division road dogs.
The Chiefs have eclipsed the 'total' at a 21-13-1 clip as short-enders.
However, San Diego has slipped 'under' in 14 of 20 as division home chalk.
History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 18 meetings.
History: Eight of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less.
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 42-30 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Herm Edwards 2-2).
The home team is 12-4 ATS

Chiefs are 10-15 ATS on the road since 2004.
Philip Rivers is 15-5 as a starter (10-10 ATS).

From Cappers poster
 
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Posted: #53
Tampa Bay
Denver                                                                            Kansas City
 
Teams in red are eliminated from contention
for the underdog trend pick of the week
 
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Posted: #54
From two minute Warning >>>
 
 
Week Four

The Ultimate Prediction Machine!

The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering.

NFL Week 4 , 2007
Matchup
Line
(home)
Pick
Cover %
Kansas City at San Diego
-11.5
Kansas City
79 %


Analysis: the simulations show a very high confidence value in Kansas City covering the large spread this week. While three games doesn't provide the sample you would ideally want, we have found the UPM to be predictive this early (and in fact, it's been an excellent week two predictor).

Favor: Kansas City +11.5


 
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Posted: #55
NFL Football     

Who does the public like?
The following feature monitors wagering activity at multiple online sportsbooks. The "betting percentages" represent actual wagers placed on each game at the participating sportsbooks. The data is updated every 30mins.

The information is intended to give viewers a deeper understanding of the sports marketplace. 

 

From this information ....here are the highest percentages representing the teams most bet on ...>>>

# 1 >>> Houston Texans ( vs Atlanta ) @ 85 %

# 2 >>> New England ( vs Cincinnati ) @ 83 %

# 3 >>Green Bay , Dallas , Pittsburgh @ 81 %  ( vs Minn, St Louis , and Arizona respectively )

 

 
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Posted: #56
Do you like the Den/Ind Under?  Or do you think there better o/u plays out there.  Appreciate all your help.  Hope my work above helped a lil'.
 
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Posted: #57
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring KANSAS CITY in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 58.9% of the time since 1992. (103-72)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-8)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN DIEGO games 55.2% of the time since 1992. (95-77)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN DIEGO games 53.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-13)
Edge=KANSAS CITY
 
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Posted: #58
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
  Power Rating
  Estimate Edge
BALTIMORE -11 CLEVELAND    
 
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Posted: #59
Detroit
Minnesota
San Francisco                                                                          
Kansas City
 
Teams in red are eliminated ...
Kansas City is back in ....
 
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Posted: #60
hey Robertofiory who do you think will cover the Pitt/Ari game? I did a little bit of research on trends, and it looks the strong trends favor Pitt  But when I looked at Arizona trends, they have a lot of recent small trends that may favor them to cover. Also it is a home game for Arizona, but Boldin is out for the game
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by geoffrey:

Roberto have we got an 'underdog' trend pick for this coming weekend yet?
 
Obviously not!
 
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Posted: #62
Robert, do you think Bears/Lions Over? Thanks!
 
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Posted: #63
wassup roberto?  i really like the buffalo and detroit dog plays.  on my list as i sneak in a couple side plays.  best to ya
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by kevk87:

hey Robertofiory who do you think will cover the Pitt/Ari game? I did a little bit of research on trends, and it looks the strong trends favor Pitt  But when I looked at Arizona trends, they have a lot of recent small trends that may favor them to cover. Also it is a home game for Arizona, but Boldin is out for the game

From a trends point of view ...I believe Pittsburgh still has the advantage ...

Whether it is the AFC vs NFC game advantage or ....

Pittsburgh being 7-1 ATS as a favorite

or Pittsburgh being 4-0 ATS vs a team with a losing record

or

  • Steelers are 12-5-3 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

    • There are a number of trends that favor Pittsburgh , though Arizona carries some momentum of their own ...and I do like riding teams under the radar that are playing well...

    Now, both Squads have some key injuries ..with Hines Ward being out from the Steelers .....but ...

    I think that if Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals is in fact out for Sunday's game..then this would  be a huge blow to the Cardinals ..

    as he is coming off a huge game with 181 yards and 2 touchdowns against Baltimore ....

    This is to me a stay away from game

    No opinion ...

    Lean towards Pittsburgh

     
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    Posted: #65
    az is one of the consensus plays in the hilton contest
     
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    Posted: #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Seadragon88:

    Robert, do you think Bears/Lions Over? Thanks!

    For all it is worth ....this is what winning picks had to say about that >>>>>

    Under Bears/Lions 44 - okay, okay, okay the Lions can score, but the Bears can stop that. Last week Dallas managed only 10 points until late in the 3rd quarter. Thanks to Rex the defense was completely exhausted by then. Well Rex is now on the bench. The under is 12-7 when these two teams play since 1996 and 7-3 in Detroit.

    However .....>>>

    Over is 15-2-1 in CHI last 18 vs. NFC.]

  • Over is 13-3-1 in CHI last 17 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 17-7-1 in CHI last 25 games overall.

    • The Chicago bears defense is banged up ..and who knows if that will turn into more or less points ...

    The way Detroit got light up last week vs Philadelphia for 56 points ...it would be hard to think that Griese can't generate some offense against this group ....But in the NFL ...a 56 point defensive collapse can mean a 10 point effort the following week...

    Frankly , I have no opinion on most games ...and that's how I keep my opinions more valuable ...and focused ...

     
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    Posted: #67
    Quote Originally Posted by kalind:

    wassup roberto?  i really like the buffalo and detroit dog plays.  on my list as i sneak in a couple side plays.  best to ya

     

    Thanks Kalind ....

    Best of luck to you ...!

    I just don't see any clear answers this week ...and sometiumes ..that's the way it should be ...

    Though I eliminated Detroit from the Dogs list ....There are some nice trends working against Chicago , and in favor of Detroit ...that make the Lions an enticing play ...

    The removal of Rex Grossman ..an implemetation of Brian griese ..will have an inmediate impact ..on that offense IMO ...

    The Bears 's defense is so banged up though ...who knows what we are going to see from that group ......These two variables make it wait and see play ....

    As for Buffalo ....well.....as a trend play  the Bills are a possible play for me ...

    But we have quite a matchup here ...a team in Buffalo ranked 32nd in the NFL on offense with a rookie quaterback  facing a team in the Jets ranked 28th on defense ....

    Then we have a Jets team ranked 28th on offense going against

    a team in the Bills that is ranked ..again...dead last in the NFL ..now on defense ...

    The difference in quarterback experience will probably make the difference ...but as one of the players said for the Jets ...

    weird stuff happens when we play in Buffalo ...or something to that effect ......

    Lean towards the NY Jets

     
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    Posted: #68
    thanks for the response Roberto
     
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    Posted: #69
    alright as I  eliminate yet again kansas City along with St Louis ...
    What we have left for the Underdog picks are :
     
    Minnesota
    Buffalo
    San Francisco
     
     
     
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    Posted: #70
    Ok ....Lets put a lid on the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week .....
     
     
    The Underdog Trend Pick of the Week is :
     
    Minnesota Vikings
     
     
    ***************************************************
    some of the stats that won out :
     
    Minn - GB
     
    Underdog is 17-4 ATS
    Underdog is 13-0-1 ATS
    Minnesota is 9-2-1 ATS  vs the NFC North
     
    Green Bay is 7-1 ATS vs the NFC , but
     
    Minnesota is 14-5-1 ATS vs the NFC
    Minnesota is 8-0-1 as Dogs to GB since 2000
    Minnesota is 20-8 as Home Dogs
    Minnesota is 14-3 ATS as Home Dogs with revenge
    Minnesota is 9-2 ATS on their second Home game
    Minnesota is 4-0 ATS on their second Home game as Dogs
    Minnesota is 6-0 ATS vs winning Opp coming off two SU  losses in a row
     
    Sandwich game for Green Bay >>>
     
    Green Bay @ 3-0 is coming off a huge win vs San Diego and
     next week , they must face the Chicago Bears
     
    Minnesota @ 1-2 is coming off two tough close losses on the road
    and next has a bye on the schedule ...
     
    Minnesota is 12-5 SU the week prior to their bye ...
     
    Green Bay is a heavily played side sitting @ 81 %
    and the line is moving into the + 3 territory ...( has already )
     
    a huge number given the recent history between these squads
    and the dominance of the underdog over the years in this matchup
     
    >>>
     
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    Posted: #71

    recent games :

    Game Results

    Recent Meetings Green Bay Minnesota
    Date Away/Home Line O/U Tot Rus Pas Tot Rus Pas
    12/21/06 MIN 7 - GB 9 MIN 3.5 U 37 319 46 273 104 77 27
    11/12/06 GB 23 - MIN 17 GB 5 P 40 394 47 347 312 90 222
    11/21/05 MIN 20 - GB 17 MIN 6 U 44 236 21 215 331 160 171
    10/23/05 GB 20 - MIN 23 MIN -1 U 46 374 45 329 363 108 255
    01/09/05 MIN 31 - GB 17 MIN 6.5 U 53 306 105 201 384 123 261
    12/24/04 GB 34 - MIN 31 GB 3 O 57 452 102 350 416 131 285
    11/14/04 MIN 31 - GB 34 MIN 4.5 O 50 442 206 236 416 71 345
    11/02/03 GB 30 - MIN 27 GB 5.5 O 49 451 261 190 323 125 198
     
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    Posted: #72
    present line is :
     
    Sunday, Sep 30
    1:00 PM ET
    0
    0
    (213) Green Bay
    (214) Minnesota
    Matchup • Line History
    Over/Under
    OFF
    -110
    38
    -110
    3
    -110
    38
    -120
    3
    -110
    38
    -105
    2
    -110
    37.5
    -110
    1.5
    -110
    38
    -105
    2
    -110
    37.5
    -110
    2
    -110
    38
    -105
    2
    -110
    37.5
    -102
    1
    -110
    38
    ************************************************************
    That's all for now .....
     
     
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    Posted: #73
    I like this pick.. My local (20 years 0 losses) last week said GB wins outright and loses the next week vs MIN. 
     
    I'm suprised you ruled ATL out so early, this game is going to be the same as week 3 preseason when ATL faced CIN.  anyway I'm excited to see your choiced for week 4
     
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    Posted: #74
    Quote Originally Posted by vincent:

    whats up ROBERTO ? any leans for your 5 for the hilton yet ?  GL

    Not an easy week ...and shorter on time ...so ...I am on survival mode ...

    I will probably make no more than 3 plays overall....

    and of course ..I will participate in Joe Public's Hilton contest ...for fun ..as I get to continue to defend my title...

    I should be sitting at 11-2-2 for the year there ...most likely in the lead ..but not sure ...

    anyways ....I don't have 5 picks ..yet ...

    I will fill them out late saturday

    Cheers ....

     
     
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    Posted: #75
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