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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4

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Captain
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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

Do you like the Den/Ind Under?  Or do you think there better o/u plays out there.  Appreciate all your help.  Hope my work above helped a lil'.

In all honesty I am giving sides 90 %  of my attention ( if not more ) leaving totals on the backburner for now .....

this is by design ...to have more focus ...and I cannot give you an opinion on that game as I haven't looked at it enough ....

 

 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:

I like this pick.. My local (20 years 0 losses) last week said GB wins outright and loses the next week vs MIN. 
 
I'm suprised you ruled ATL out so early, this game is going to be the same as week 3 preseason when ATL faced CIN.  anyway I'm excited to see your choiced for week 4

This week was particularly hard for me ....for selecting a dog trend pick .....

Atlanta probably lost out because of the NFC vs AFC matchups ...

in addition to the fact that Houston is going into uncharted territory as they manage to win ATS even after losing a key player in AJ ...and going against the powerhouse Indi...they hang in there ...

I have made money on them ....I have selected them as a trend pick more than once ...and ...there are a good team that will find ways to win the games they use to lose and cover the ones they didn't before ...

A team on the rise ....no doubt ....best not being on the other side at the moment ...

 

This week may be very thin for me .....

I may fly with this pick ( Minnesota ) and go into Monday night ...though there are a few favorites in contention like Baltimore and Dallas that I would still consider ...

and didn't touch on much here because ...in the end I concentrate on an Underdog ......here

Anyways , we'll see

Cheers

 
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Posted: #78
Good night all.....!
 
Captain
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Posted: #79
All I can say is WOW!   We are not worthy of all this great capping info.   Thanks once again RobertoF for all this wonderful knowledge and insights to all this weeks games.   Keep up the good work Bro!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #80
 Love Min pick
 
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Posted: #81
Thanks for another week of hard work Roberto. I've known all week I'll be on this and now I'm glad to see it's your underdog pick of the week. I think that both the SF and Detroit plays are also solid and will likely appear on my card. BOL this weekend Roberto
 
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Posted: #82
Roberto -- Luv your stuff and hope that you aren't searching for plays that aren't there this week. Disclipine requires that we must sometime pass if nothing is there. I understand the clamor for your excellent selections,but it's OK to say "let's wait until next week". Good luck to whatever you come up with or not.
 
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Posted: #83
nice job roberto...you should have your own radio show or a weekly 1 hour tv show..you are well informed and explain things so all can understand..gl 
 
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Posted: #84

Thank you verymuch for your time and kindness. You have put a lot work and time in this forum, and try to help us win some .

Again, thank you! God bless you and Good luck for everybody!

 
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Posted: #85
Thank you RobertoF!
 
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Posted: #86
Great work.

 
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Posted: #87
thank you
 
Prospect
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Posted: #88
roberto: you posted a trend last week i believe it was unders have hit at 9-1 on over/unders in excess of 50.  Last week seattle/cincy went under.  How about pats/cincy this week the # is 53.5
 
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Posted: #89
always a must read
 
 
some of these people are clueless when it comes to how fb lines are set. to entice public action. you, my friend, are very astute.
 
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Posted: #90
Hey Roberto, thanks for all the great info. Do you think Minny wins strait up? I am in a year long pool and everyone is going to be on GB, but I am thinking the Vikes can win SU. Thanks!
 
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Posted: #91
From week 16 last year :
 
 

The 2  system plays featured in week 15  were succesful last week ...>>>

Play against Road teams coming off an upset win , with a winning record on the season.
 
196-118 ATS since 1983   ........62.4 %
 
The situation's record in 2005-2006 is 8-3 ....72.7 %
Over  the last 3 seasons the situation's record is 25-13.....65.8%
Over the last 5 seasons, the situation's record is 37-27.....57.8%
Over the last 10 seasons, the situation's record is 81-47....63.3 %
 
The average line posted in these games was home team favored by 2.2
The average score in these games was home team 22.7 - road team 17.1
The average point differential was + 5.6
 
Explanation:
This system has hot at over 62 % for a period of over 23 years. It's based on the foundation that the teams to be faded are coming off an emotional win and are now playing on the road. Seeing as how they have a winning record and just came up with a big upset victory, they are squarely in the betting public spotlight.
More often than not, including 73% of the time a year ago, this team will come up short.
 
Last week this system play was a winner as Seattle ( a winning team )  on the road got beat by Arizona , the week after Seattle had upset Denver.
 
This week the system applies to Jacksonville ( a winning team )  , as they pulled off the upset over Indianapolis ( depending on your line ) , and are now on the road playing against Tennessee.
Play would be against Jacksonville.
 
So, Tennessee + 3 / 3.5
Winner
 
**********************************************************************************************
and >>>
Play Under - In any game involving 2 good offensive teams ( 23-27 PPG )
Results thus far>>>
 
53-23 ATS over last 5 seasons...68.8 %
The average total posted in these games was 44.3
The average total points scored in these games was 41.9
The situation's record in 2005-2006 is 9-6
In the last 3 seasons, the situation's record is 75-50
Since 1983, the situation's record is 161-116
 
Explanation: This is a totals System that proves how vulnerable the public can be, partcularly when 2 attractive offensive teams get together. As you can see, playing the under in games of this sort typically nets more than a 65 % winning percentage.
 
Indianapolis is ranked 5th in the league with 26.3 points per game.
Cincinnati is ranked 6th in the league with 24.4 points per game.
 
Game : Cinci @ Indi  
Play : Under
Winner
************************************************************************************
 
This week we have 2 teams that qualify for this system play...
Play against Road teams coming off an upset win , with a winning record on the season.
and both are playing on Monday night :
 
Philadelphia ( with winning record : 8-6 )  is playing on the road this week against Dallas after  upsetting  the NYG last week as 5.5 point underdog .
 
Play : against Philadelphia
 
NY Jets ( with winning record : 8-6 ) is playing on the road this week against Miami after upsetting the
Vikings last week as a 3.5 point underdog.
 
Play : against NY Jets
 
******************************************************************************************
 
As for the this system play :
 
Play Under - In any game involving 2 good offensive teams ( 23-27 PPG )
 
This week we have Philadelphia & Dallas playing each other :
 
Philadelphia ranks 6th in the NFL averaging 25.1 points per game.
Dallas ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 27.6 points per game .
 
Play : Under
current line >>  46.5
 
***********************************************************************
 
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Posted: #92
These numbers have not been updated ...but ...Green Bay is coming off an upset win against San Diego and now must play on the road .....
 
System play is in effect against Green Bay ...........
 
 
System play could be in effect for the Cincinnati-New England game going UNDER ....
as for these teams have high powered offenses ...
However , It would seem that the play may restrict the offenses to be averaging between 23-27 points
 
My guess is not having the original source with me ....is that ...it must be later on in the year as early on these numbers could be too high given the few games that these teams have played .....
only 3 of 16 ...........
 
Assuming that is the reason ...system play is not in effect for Monday Night .....
 
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Posted: #93
Hi, Roberto, are you playing on Min  ML or cover the handi?
 
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Posted: #94
I'll look up the numbers when I have time  that I posted for the number of times the Under  has hit when the line is posted over 50 ....on MNF
I did that before ....
 
Personally , I like to see a rising number towards game time in these situations ...( marquee matchups )
 
Anyone want to add information in regards to how the totals have done for these teams when the line is set above 50 ...say over last year and over last 3 years .......
and in addition how ...the totals have fared with the line set at 50 or above on MNF over the years ....
I have some of that information on my previous threads .......
 
But I have to run ....now ....so feel free to add .................
 
 
 
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Posted: #95

Hi Robert

Take a quick look at a system play I have posted similar to what you posted

 

Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

This is provided by winning Picks and states the following :
 
Teams that win by a margin of greater than 20 points for 2 consecutive weeks and find themselves a Road Favs the third week will not cover the spread at a rate of 90 % ...since 1996
These teams often lose the game outright ...
 
This situation usually happens at an average of about 2 to 3 times  a year ...
The last time a team won two consecutive weeks by a margin of greater than 20 points and ended up covering the third week against the spread was in 2001 with the St Louis Rams .
 
Not having checked the numbers , but going with the assumption
that this occurs then on average 2 to 3 times a year ( as they stated )  ....since 1996
we would have between 22 and 33 such games ...
 
If we use the medium of 27 ...and apply the conservative percentage of under   90 %  ...then we would have >>>
 
Teams that have won 2 consecutive games by over 20 points , and are Road Favs are 6 - 21 ATS last 27 ...since 1996
conversely ...
 
Home Dogs are 21-6 ATS ( 77.8 % ) vs opponents off 2 consecutive wins of > 20 points  since 1996
 
This is an estimate .....
 
Based on this : Play on cincinnati + the points
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #96
A lot of close scores in between these squads ,,decided by three points ..or in the case of last year ..once by 2 points ...
 
I would look for 3 ..which is already available ....
 
though I have a feeling Green Bay loses outright ...
 
Back before Sunday morning .....
 
 
 
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Posted: #97
Bob, Great Job.

Trilex, Cincy plus points, no.
Roberto great job, once again.

I do love Tampa this week and Minny
I see Grudden taking care of Carr, real nicely.
and hope u on the pats on Monday, its my play of the week.
I am actually teasing every game in CFL, CFB with PATS -1.
GL TO ALL.
 
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Posted: #98
 
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Posted: #99
BY AND FAR the best thread in the football forum ... an absolute must read every fri-sun... always look forward to the insights.
 
I noticed you had a few trends with the TB and CAR game, but nothing that makes one side noticeably stronger than the other...
 
I really think that CAR will be hurting without Delhomme, and even with Carr starting the line is moving as if there were a lot of the public backing them, when that doesn't seem to be the case.
 
what's your take on the matchup and who do you think is the better side?
 
Thanks RF... keep doin what you are doin.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Informative as always Rob
 
Good stuff indeed.
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