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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4

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Veteran
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Posted: #26
Roberto....You got a good thing going on here, keep up the good work.

Also I was curious as to where you find all your trends?

Thanks and GL this weekend
 
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Posted: #27

Right off the top I like road teams this week.

HOU

PITT

JETS

TB

SEA

OAK

and throw in the cowboys at home as team to beat in NFC

 
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Posted: #28
Hey Dan ...
I'm sure you got some winners there ...
 
Let me throw in some strong  trends out there  in no particular order ....
I'll organize later .....>>>
 
Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS ( as fav 3.5-9.5 ) last 3 seasons
Pittsburgh is 13-1-1 ATS ( as fav 3.5-6.5 ) + 14-1 SU
playing on grass coming off a Home win
 
Play the " over " in a non-conf game where the Home Fav won by 21 or more last week  ( Pittsburgh )
From 1989-2006 this situation is 28-11 to the Over ( 8-2 since 2003 )
 Game : Pitt - Car Over 42  ( compliments of gfinger )
 
 
New England is 6-0 ATS as RF off a division game last 3 seasons
 
Denver on the road ( vs Conference opponent) after scoring 14 points or less last game is 10-2-1  ATS
Denver as a road team ( weeks 4-8 ) coming off a loss is 8-2-2 ATS
Denver is 5-2 ATS last 7 as RD
Denver is 7-3 ATS vs a team w/ a winning record
 
Why are these significant ......because >>>
 
Denver is 1-10 ATS last 11 games overall ....&
 0-8 ATS last 8 vs the AFC
 
 
San Diego is 13-3 ATS following a SU loss
San Diego is 13-4-3 ATS  vs the AFC West
Home team is 5-0 ATS last 5 ( KC - SD matchup )
 
...continuing>>>
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Minn - GB
 
Underdog is 17-4 ATS
Underdog is 13-0-1 ATS
Minnesota is 9-2-1 ATS  vs the NFC North
 
Green Bay is 7-1 ATS vs the NFC , but
Minnesota is 14-5-1 ATS vs the NFC
Minnesota is 8-0-1 as Dogs to GB since 2000
Minnesota is 20-8 as Home Dogs
Minnesota is 14-3 ATS as Home Dogs with revenge
Minnesota is 9-2 ATS on their second Home game
Minnesota is 4-0 ATS on their second Home game as Dogs
Minnesota is 6-0 ATS vs winning Opp coming off two SU  losses in a row
Green Bay @ 3-0 is coming off a huge win vs San Diego and
 next week , they must face the Chicago Bears
Minnesota @ 1-2 is coming off two tough close losses on the road
and next has a bye on the schedule ...
Minnesota is 12-5 SU the week prior to their bye ...
 
 
Minnesota is a very attractive Underdog trend pick
 
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Posted: #32
The Vkings look too good in this spot, trends and everything, I like the Packers in this game, everywhere I look I see Vikings picked by most cappers, and well respected cappers at that; Roberto, you are a huge asset to this forum. Keep up the good work! One thing I am 100% sure of is one of us will win in this game, LoL!
 
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Posted: #33
 
 
 
.................I wonder who the "odds-on-favourite" to win, is......, between the two of you !!!???
 
 
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Posted: #34
I'll include the stats given to us by Wizeguysports
and  bulubulu
in regards to this game :
 
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
 
This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. 
In this scenario >>>
 
Home dogs are 57-18 ATS ( 76 % ) in the past 10 years GIANTS are  7-0 ATS as home dogs off dog win vs. opponent off win
Giants @ home vs the NFC East ( before non-div game ) coming off a 4-7 point win & an ATS win are 10-3-1 ATS & 12-2 SU
 
Philadelphia is 4-10 ATS vs a team with a losing record
NY Giants are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs the NFC East
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU before a bye
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS before a bye
Giants are 29-15 ATS after winning SU as Dogs
 
This is all very good for the Giants , but >>>
 
Phil is 6-2 ATS vs Giants last 8
Phil is 9-4 SU vs Giants last 13
Phil is 18-9 ATS on the road vs Div Opps
Phil is 20-12 ATS vs a team with a losing record since 2001
Phil is 42-24 ATS vs NFC oppoents since 2001
Donovan McNabb is 24-16 ATS on the road since 2001
 
*******************************************
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #35
It's cool
 
no selection made yet ...
 
Best of luck !
 
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Posted: #36
0-3 vs 3-0 teams stats
 
Only 1 game qualifies :
St Louis @ Dallas
 
0 - 3 teams are 11-8 ATS ( 58 % ) since year 2000
 
*****************************************************
However, strong trends favor Dallas  >>>>
 
Cowboys are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Rams are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog.
  • Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
  • Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.

    • *****************************************

     
    Covers Rehab
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    Posted: #37
                                                                ATS               SU
     
    When CAROLINA PANTHERS played as Home or Away Team- With a Spread between 0 and 3.5 18-11-1 19-11-0
    When CAROLINA PANTHERS played as Favourite- Vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 9-4-0 8-5-0
    When CAROLINA PANTHERS played as Home or Away Team- Vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 9-4-0 8-5-0

    When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS played as Road Underdog- With a Spread between 0 and 3.5 6-13-1 6-14-0

    When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS played as Road Underdog- in the month of September 14-15-1 10-20-0

    When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS played as Road Underdog- On Grass Surface 9-20-1 10-20-0

     

     
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    Posted: #38
    Baltimore @  Cleveland
     
    Cleveland is 2-14 ATS off 3+ overs
     
    Baltimore as Road Favs ( after non-div game )
    ( and total is 37-41 )  is 13-3-1 ATS & 15-2 SU
     
    Cleveland is 6-0 ATS vs a team wtih a winning record
    Home team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings
    Underdog in this matchup is 8-3 ATS last 11
    Cleveland is 3-0 ATS @ home vs Ravens
    Cleveland is 3-0 ATS vs the Ravens
    Cleveland is 3-10 ATS as Div Dogs < 7 points
    Cleveland is 16-6-1 ATS after scoring 23 points or more
    Baltimore is 6-14 ATS last 20 road games
     
    ************************************************************
     
     
     
    Covers Rehab
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    Posted: #39
    there is a double there it seems....
     
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    Posted: #40
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    0-3 vs 3-0 teams stats
     
    Only 1 game qualifies :
    St Louis @ Dallas
     
    0 - 3 teams are 11-8 ATS ( 58 % ) since year 2000
     
    *****************************************************
    However, strong trends favor Dallas  >>>>
     
    Cowboys are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Rams are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog.
  • Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
  • Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.

    • *****************************************

    The 0-3 vs 3-0 Trend should read instead >>>

    0-3 teams vs non - losing teams are 11-8 ATS

    This info was obtained from a  cappers forum poster ...

    and some other trends ( some non confirmed)  as well...

    That being said ... there is very good information >>>>

     
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    Posted: #41
    Roberto have we got an 'underdog' trend pick for this coming weekend yet?
     
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    Posted: #42
    Chicago Bears (1-2, 0-3) at Detroit Lions (2-1, 1-1-1)

    Chicago is 0-6  ATS dating back to 2006.

    The last time the defending NFC champs were 0-4 ATS consecutively  in the same season was 2002.

     Underdog in this series is  10-4-1  ATS
    Underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings
     
     SU winner in this series  is  27-5-2 ATS. 

     Bears are 4-9-2 as division road favorites
    Bears are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC North.
  • Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
    • and 11-32-2 ATS coming off a SU loss as Favs

    The Lions are 29-16 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more.

    Chicago is 2-8 to the UNDER after losing SU as Favs  
    Detroit is 11-4-1 to the UNDER  in September.

    History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
    History: Bears have won the last 4 meetings.
    History: Seven of the last nine meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
    History : The Underdog in series is 11-4-1
    ***************************************
     
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    Posted: #43
    NY Jets (1-2, 1-1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-3, 1-2)
     
    Buffalo Bills  are 8-1 ATS as Home Dogs vs NY .
     However,
    NY  Jets are  9-4-1 ATS  as Road favs overall.
     
     Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss
     Bills are 11-1 ATS after playing New England since 1999

    Buffalo is 5-2 ATS vs NY Jets
    NY Jets are 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500. 

     Home Team is 7-2 SU in this matchup
    Jets are 5-1 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.
    Bills are 9-4 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
     
    *********************
     
     
    A system play favoring Eagles ..>>
     
    Play on Philadelphia on the road ( weeks 4-8 ) vs Opps with a 31-41  winning %
     
    This situation is 11-0-1  ATS
     
    ****************************************
     
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    Posted: #44
    Tampa Bay Bucs (2-1, 2-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-1, 2-1)

    Tampa Bay  are 2-11 ATS coming off back-to-back SU wins.
     Carolina is 8-3 ATS vs TB last 11 meetings 
    Underdog is 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings

    Carolina is 3-9 ATS after a SU div road win
    Carolina is 1-6 ATS as home favs  after allowing more than 17 points in September.
     
    Carolina is 3-13 ATS as favorites ( 4- 6 points )
    They have also come up short in 13 of 16 as favorites of between four and seven points
     
    Tampa Bay is 33-15 to the UNDER after only allowing 10 points or less
    *********************************
     
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    Posted: #45
    Quote Originally Posted by neoJhim3:

     

    You could find that here in covers. NFL scores and matchups... on the right side of the teams, there will be percentage.

     

    That is a consensus for FUN... I'm talking about  BET %'s, which is REAL money... I can say I like houston but when it comes down to it I put my money on ATL, I want to know those things plus I am seeing if any trend develops from these BET %'s

     
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    Posted: #46

    Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:

    That is a consensus for FUN... I'm talking about  BET %'s, which is REAL money... I can say I like houston but when it comes down to it I put my money on ATL, I want to know those things plus I am seeing if any trend develops from these BET %'s

    I don't think we can get that kind of data (the real money betting). 

     
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    Posted: #47
    This is provided by winning Picks and states the following :
     
    Teams that win by a margin of greater than 20 points for 2 consecutive weeks and find themselves a Road Favs the third week will not cover the spread at a rate of 90 % ...since 1996
    These teams often lose the game outright ...
     
    This situation usually happens at an average of about 2 to 3 times  a year ...
    The last time a team won two consecutive weeks by a margin of greater than 20 points and ended up covering the third week against the spread was in 2001 with the St Louis Rams .
     
    Not having checked the numbers , but going with the assumption
    that this occurs then on average 2 to 3 times a year ( as they stated )  ....since 1996
    we would have between 22 and 33 such games ...
     
    If we use the medium of 27 ...and apply the conservative percentage of under   90 %  ...then we would have >>>
     
    Teams that have won 2 consecutive games by over 20 points , and are Road Favs are 6 - 21 ATS last 27 ...since 1996
    conversely ...
     
    Home Dogs are 21-6 ATS ( 77.8 % ) vs opponents off 2 consecutive wins of > 20 points  since 1996
     
    This is an estimate .....
     
    Based on this : Play on cincinnati + the points
     
     
     
     
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    Posted: #48
    New England @ Cincinnati
     
    Dogs of 6.5 or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002
    Cincinnati is 1-5 SU last 6 years before a bye
    MNF Home teams are 12-8 ATS since 2006
    Carson Palmer is 2-5 ATS as a Home Dog
    MNF Home Dogs are 4-3 ATS since 2006
     
    Road Teams favored by more than 7 are 38-63-3 ATS ( 37 % )  from 1997-2007
     
    New England is 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as Favorite of 7 or more
    & 6-4 SU
    New England as a Road Favorite of less than 7 is 14-4 ATS
    Of these 4 losses ...3 were SU
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #49
    any leans for the 5 picks for hilton Roberto?
     
     
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    Posted: #50
    Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS as Dogs of 6 or more
     
    New England is 4-17 ATS when playing second road game of the season
    New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins
    New England is 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.
    New England is  9-1 ATS off a DD division win.
    New England is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10
    New England is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing prior game
    New England is 7-0 ATS last 7 after scoring more than 30 points prior game
    Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS last 11 games in week 4
     
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