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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4

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Posted: #126
BUMP!!!!
 
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Posted: #127
Excellent information.............thanks for all of your hard work...
 
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Posted: #130
Any o/u that stick out, Roberto?
 
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Posted: #131

sorry ...won't be around much to post ..or respond ...though I will try ...

Just thought we took a quick look back at what I missed ( or we missed >>>>

 

 

 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by Wizeguysports:

Roberto....!!!!   a little help here man...

you post some of best trends and system here at covers.. I found these at another forum and look overwhelmingly good IF they are accurate...  Based on the system I noticed the giants fall into both systems.....

Play on a home dog of 3 or less points, off a SU away dog win versus an opponent off a SU win. System is 18-4 ATS.

Giants would be the play

This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. These ferocious home dogs are 57-18 ATS in the past 10 years. This simple little system cranks out winners at a rate of 76%.

Giants would be the play

What do you think bro?
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by bulubulu:

Wizeguys,
 
System looks good
GIANTS 7-0 ATS as home dogs off dog win vs. opponent off win (compliments Mark Lawrence's Black Book)
 
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Posted: #134
Posted: 9/27/2007 3:41:56 AM
I featured the contrarian play last week >>
This angle is essentially  " Fade the Public"  theory >>>
 
  • Contrarian Betting - back the teams that are not getting bet in the thinking that the linemakers are smart and either laying a trap for the public, happy to take a stand on the game, as they wouldn't willingly accept exposure on a matchup if they didn't feel they had the "right side."

    • according to two minute warning ...based on 2005 year numbers only ...(not much statistical data to draw from ..) and a year of the favorite ...taking a side that draws less than 20 % of the action will be profitable .

    As for what day of the week has the most meaningful numbers, they don't have any hard research.

    However last season the teams with less than 20% of the bets on Tuesday fared very well against the spread.

    On Week 4 , based on Tuesday's percentages the team with the highest percentage of backing is :

    Houston ( the play would be on Atlanta )

    next in line were GB ( play on Minnesota )

     and Pitssburgh ( play on Arizona )

     
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    Posted: #135
    NY Jets (1-2, 1-1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-3, 1-2)
     
    Buffalo Bills  are 8-1 ATS as Home Dogs vs NY .
     However,
    NY  Jets are  9-4-1 ATS  as Road favs overall.
     
     Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss
     
     Bills are 11-1 ATS after playing New England since 1999

    Buffalo is 5-2 ATS vs NY Jets
    NY Jets are 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500. 

     Home Team is 7-2 SU in this matchup
    Jets are 5-1 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.
    Bills are 9-4 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
     
     
    Had I gone with the SINGLE biggest trend out there
    Buffalo may have been the choice ...
     
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    Posted: #136
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    This is provided by winning Picks and states the following :
     
    Teams that win by a margin of greater than 20 points for 2 consecutive weeks and find themselves a Road Favs the third week will not cover the spread at a rate of 90 % ...since 1996
    These teams often lose the game outright ...
     
    This situation usually happens at an average of about 2 to 3 times  a year ...
    The last time a team won two consecutive weeks by a margin of greater than 20 points and ended up covering the third week against the spread was in 2001 with the St Louis Rams .
     
    Not having checked the numbers , but going with the assumption
    that this occurs then on average 2 to 3 times a year ( as they stated )  ....since 1996
    we would have between 22 and 33 such games ...
     
    If we use the medium of 27 ...and apply the conservative percentage of under   90 %  ...then we would have >>>
     
    Teams that have won 2 consecutive games by over 20 points , and are Road Favs are 6 - 21 ATS last 27 ...since 1996
    conversely ...
     
    Home Dogs are 21-6 ATS ( 77.8 % ) vs opponents off 2 consecutive wins of > 20 points  since 1996
     
    This is an estimate .....
     
    Based on this : Play on cincinnati + the points
     
     
     

    someone disputed these numbers ...as I stated I never checked them ...

    winningpicks picked cincinnati and used this " blowout trend " to validate ...but didn't offer specific numbers ...only that it has hit at around 90 % ....

     
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    Posted: #137
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
    Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
    As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring KANSAS CITY in this game
    The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 58.9% of the time since 1992. (103-72)
    The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 70.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-8)
    The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN DIEGO games 55.2% of the time since 1992. (95-77)
    The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN DIEGO games 53.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-13)
    Edge=KANSAS CITY

     

    I definitely missed this one !! ...as I didn't select them as the underdog pick ...

    though I picked them elsewhere

     
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    Posted: #138
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    From two minute Warning >>>
     
     
    Week Four

    The Ultimate Prediction Machine!

    The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering.

    NFL Week 4 , 2007
    Matchup
    Line
    (home)
    Pick
    Cover %
    Kansas City at San Diego
    -11.5
    Kansas City
    79 %


    Analysis: the simulations show a very high confidence value in Kansas City covering the large spread this week. While three games doesn't provide the sample you would ideally want, we have found the UPM to be predictive this early (and in fact, it's been an excellent week two predictor).

    Favor: Kansas City +11.5


    This two punch combination maybe should have helped Kansas City take the underdog trend pick of the week ...

    this information was at least out there........

     
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    Posted: #139
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    For all it is worth ....this is what winning picks had to say about that >>>>>

    Under Bears/Lions 44 - okay, okay, okay the Lions can score, but the Bears can stop that. Last week Dallas managed only 10 points until late in the 3rd quarter. Thanks to Rex the defense was completely exhausted by then. Well Rex is now on the bench. The under is 12-7 when these two teams play since 1996 and 7-3 in Detroit.

    However .....>>>

    Over is 15-2-1 in CHI last 18 vs. NFC.]

  • Over is 13-3-1 in CHI last 17 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 17-7-1 in CHI last 25 games overall.

    • The Chicago bears defense is banged up ..and who knows if that will turn into more or less points ...

    The way Detroit got light up last week vs Philadelphia for 56 points ...it would be hard to think that Griese can't generate some offense against this group ....But in the NFL ...a 56 point defensive collapse can mean a 10 point effort the following week...

    Frankly , I have no opinion on most games ...and that's how I keep my opinions more valuable ...and focused ...

     

    This was another case for taking the strongest stat avaliable and throwing out the rest ,,,,,,!

    The Over was the play !

     
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    Posted: #140
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    New England @ Cincinnati
     
    Dogs of 6.5 or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002
    Cincinnati is 1-5 SU last 6 years before a bye
    MNF Home teams are 12-8 ATS since 2006
    Carson Palmer is 2-5 ATS as a Home Dog
    MNF Home Dogs are 4-3 ATS since 2006
     
    Road Teams favored by more than 7 are 38-63-3 ATS ( 37 % )  from 1997-2007
     
    New England is 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as Favorite of 7 or more
    & 6-4 SU
    New England as a Road Favorite of less than 7 is 14-4 ATS
    Of these 4 losses ...3 were SU

    This is what I had for Monday night Football

     
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    Posted: #141
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS as Dogs of 6 or more
     
    New England is 4-17 ATS when playing second road game of the season
    New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins
    New England is 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.
    New England is  9-1 ATS off a DD division win.
    New England is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10
    New England is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing prior game
    New England is 7-0 ATS last 7 after scoring more than 30 points prior game
    Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS last 11 games in week 4
     
     
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    Posted: #142
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    Last scenario where on MNF there was a Road Favorite of 7 or more , Chicago Bears were favroed by 10 over the hosting Arizona Cardinals
     
    Chicago managed to win 24-23 ..and not cover
     
    Before that , it was in 2004
     
    New England visited Miami as a 9.5 point favorite ...and went on to lose the game by a score of 29-28
     
    It should also be noted the similarity of the situation from last year involving the Chicago Bears and this year's New England Patriots >>>
     
    On week 8 2006 , Chicago was favored by 16.5 points over the SF 49ers  same spread as New England was favored over the Bills last week )
    The Bears won the game 41-10 easily covering the large spread
    Then >>>
     
    On week 9 Chicago traveled , to face another conference opponent as a 10 point Favorite in Arizona on MNF ...
    Chicago managed a 1 point victory
     
    The time before that , it involved Denver on the road giving up 7 points to Baltimore who covered the 7 point spread and tacked on 11 more
     
    some information ...compliments of DogPlaya ...
     
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    Posted: #143

    New England Patriots (3-0, 3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, 1-1-1)

    Cincinnati would appear to have faint hope when it hosts New England, the hottest team on Planet NFL.

    However, the Bengals have 'covered' six of eight as dogs of six points or more and the Patriots are a dismal 4-17 ATS when playing their second road game of the season.

     New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins and 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.

    The Pats are also 9-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. Cincinnati is 15-32 ATS at home in September.

    The Bengals have failed to 'cover' seven of eight versus non-division opponents when playing on Monday.

     
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    Posted: #144
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    2004-2007 >>>
     
    Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone
    8-6-0 ATS & 7-7 SU
     
    Home Underdogs ( >= 7 ) on Monday night have gone 2-0 ATS & 1-1 SU
     
    2002-2007 >>>
     
    Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone 12-12 ATS & 11-13 SU
     
    Home Underdogs (>=7 ) on Monday night have gone
    3-0 ATS & 2-1 SU
     
     
     
     
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #145
    am now  looking at the Under on MNF though as history is on the side of the under ....with no MNF matchups going over when the line is set @ above 52 since 1996 ( 3 unders )
    and no overs have been registered since 1996 for either club when the total has been set at >= 52 since 1996 ( 5 unders combined )
    The Under seems to be the right play ....
    Line is climbing as well...which I love to see
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