Posted:
#126
BUMP!!!!
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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 4
Posted:
#132
Quote Originally Posted by Wizeguysports:
Roberto....!!!! a little help here man...
you post some of best trends and system here at covers.. I found these at another forum and look overwhelmingly good IF they are accurate... Based on the system I noticed the giants fall into both systems.....
Play on a home dog of 3 or less points, off a SU away dog win versus an opponent off a SU win. System is 18-4 ATS.
Giants would be the play
This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. These ferocious home dogs are 57-18 ATS in the past 10 years. This simple little system cranks out winners at a rate of 76%.
Giants would be the play
What do you think bro?
Roberto....!!!! a little help here man...
you post some of best trends and system here at covers.. I found these at another forum and look overwhelmingly good IF they are accurate... Based on the system I noticed the giants fall into both systems.....
Play on a home dog of 3 or less points, off a SU away dog win versus an opponent off a SU win. System is 18-4 ATS.
Giants would be the play
This system is to play on all home dogs off a SU away win, versus an opponent off a SU home win. These ferocious home dogs are 57-18 ATS in the past 10 years. This simple little system cranks out winners at a rate of 76%.
Giants would be the play
What do you think bro?
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Posted:
#134
Posted: 9/27/2007 3:41:56 AM
Contrarian Betting - back the teams that are not getting bet in the thinking that the linemakers are smart and either laying a trap for the public, happy to take a stand on the game, as they wouldn't willingly accept exposure on a matchup if they didn't feel they had the "right side."
I featured the contrarian play last week >>
This angle is essentially " Fade the Public" theory >>>
according to two minute warning ...based on 2005 year numbers only ...(not much statistical data to draw from ..) and a year of the favorite ...taking a side that draws less than 20 % of the action will be profitable .
As for what day of the week has the most meaningful numbers, they don't have any hard research.
However last season the teams with less than 20% of the bets on Tuesday fared very well against the spread.
On Week 4 , based on Tuesday's percentages the team with the highest percentage of backing is :
Houston ( the play would be on Atlanta )
next in line were GB ( play on Minnesota )
and Pitssburgh ( play on Arizona )
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Posted:
#135
NY Jets (1-2, 1-1-1 ) at Buffalo Bills (0-3, 1-2)
Buffalo Bills are 8-1 ATS as Home Dogs vs NY .
However,
NY Jets are 9-4-1 ATS as Road favs overall.
Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss
Bills are 11-1 ATS after playing New England since 1999
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS vs NY Jets
NY Jets are 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500.
Home Team is 7-2 SU in this matchup
Jets are 5-1 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.
Bills are 9-4 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
Bills are 9-4 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
Had I gone with the SINGLE biggest trend out there
Buffalo may have been the choice ...
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Posted:
#136
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
This is provided by winning Picks and states the following :
Teams that win by a margin of greater than 20 points for 2 consecutive weeks and find themselves a Road Favs the third week will not cover the spread at a rate of 90 % ...since 1996
These teams often lose the game outright ...
This situation usually happens at an average of about 2 to 3 times a year ...
The last time a team won two consecutive weeks by a margin of greater than 20 points and ended up covering the third week against the spread was in 2001 with the St Louis Rams .
Not having checked the numbers , but going with the assumption
that this occurs then on average 2 to 3 times a year ( as they stated ) ....since 1996
we would have between 22 and 33 such games ...
If we use the medium of 27 ...and apply the conservative percentage of under 90 % ...then we would have >>>
Teams that have won 2 consecutive games by over 20 points , and are Road Favs are 6 - 21 ATS last 27 ...since 1996
conversely ...
Home Dogs are 21-6 ATS ( 77.8 % ) vs opponents off 2 consecutive wins of > 20 points since 1996
This is an estimate .....
Based on this : Play on cincinnati + the points
someone disputed these numbers ...as I stated I never checked them ...
winningpicks picked cincinnati and used this " blowout trend " to validate ...but didn't offer specific numbers ...only that it has hit at around 90 % ....
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Posted:
#137
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
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I definitely missed this one !! ...as I didn't select them as the underdog pick ...
though I picked them elsewhere
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Posted:
#138
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Week Four
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
NFL Week 4 , 2007
From two minute Warning >>>
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering.
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Analysis: the simulations show a very high confidence value in Kansas City covering the large spread this week. While three games doesn't provide the sample you would ideally want, we have found the UPM to be predictive this early (and in fact, it's been an excellent week two predictor).
Favor: Kansas City +11.5
This two punch combination maybe should have helped Kansas City take the underdog trend pick of the week ...
this information was at least out there........
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Posted:
#139
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Over is 13-3-1 in CHI last 17 games as a favorite.
Over is 17-7-1 in CHI last 25 games overall.
For all it is worth ....this is what winning picks had to say about that >>>>>
Under Bears/Lions 44 - okay, okay, okay the Lions can score, but the Bears can stop that. Last week Dallas managed only 10 points until late in the 3rd quarter. Thanks to Rex the defense was completely exhausted by then. Well Rex is now on the bench. The under is 12-7 when these two teams play since 1996 and 7-3 in Detroit.
However .....>>>
Over is 15-2-1 in CHI last 18 vs. NFC.]
The Chicago bears defense is banged up ..and who knows if that will turn into more or less points ...
The way Detroit got light up last week vs Philadelphia for 56 points ...it would be hard to think that Griese can't generate some offense against this group ....But in the NFL ...a 56 point defensive collapse can mean a 10 point effort the following week...
Frankly , I have no opinion on most games ...and that's how I keep my opinions more valuable ...and focused ...
This was another case for taking the strongest stat avaliable and throwing out the rest ,,,,,,!
The Over was the play !
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Posted:
#140
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
New England @ Cincinnati
Dogs of 6.5 or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU last 6 years before a bye
MNF Home teams are 12-8 ATS since 2006
Carson Palmer is 2-5 ATS as a Home Dog
MNF Home Dogs are 4-3 ATS since 2006
Road Teams favored by more than 7 are 38-63-3 ATS ( 37 % ) from 1997-2007
New England is 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as Favorite of 7 or more
& 6-4 SU
New England as a Road Favorite of less than 7 is 14-4 ATS
Of these 4 losses ...3 were SU
This is what I had for Monday night Football
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Posted:
#141
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS as Dogs of 6 or more
New England is 4-17 ATS when playing second road game of the season
New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins
New England is 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.
New England is 9-1 ATS off a DD division win.
New England is 9-1 ATS off a DD division win.
New England is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10
New England is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing prior game
New England is 7-0 ATS last 7 after scoring more than 30 points prior game
Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS last 11 games in week 4
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Posted:
#142
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Last scenario where on MNF there was a Road Favorite of 7 or more , Chicago Bears were favroed by 10 over the hosting Arizona Cardinals
Chicago managed to win 24-23 ..and not cover
Before that , it was in 2004
New England visited Miami as a 9.5 point favorite ...and went on to lose the game by a score of 29-28
It should also be noted the similarity of the situation from last year involving the Chicago Bears and this year's New England Patriots >>>
On week 8 2006 , Chicago was favored by 16.5 points over the SF 49ers same spread as New England was favored over the Bills last week )
The Bears won the game 41-10 easily covering the large spread
Then >>>
On week 9 Chicago traveled , to face another conference opponent as a 10 point Favorite in Arizona on MNF ...
Chicago managed a 1 point victory
The time before that , it involved Denver on the road giving up 7 points to Baltimore who covered the 7 point spread and tacked on 11 more
some information ...compliments of DogPlaya ...
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Posted:
#143
New England Patriots (3-0, 3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, 1-1-1)
Cincinnati would appear to have faint hope when it hosts New England, the hottest team on Planet NFL.
However, the Bengals have 'covered' six of eight as dogs of six points or more and the Patriots are a dismal 4-17 ATS when playing their second road game of the season.
New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins and 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.
The Pats are also 9-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. Cincinnati is 15-32 ATS at home in September.
The Bengals have failed to 'cover' seven of eight versus non-division opponents when playing on Monday.
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Posted:
#144
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
2004-2007 >>>
Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone
8-6-0 ATS & 7-7 SU
Home Underdogs ( >= 7 ) on Monday night have gone 2-0 ATS & 1-1 SU
2002-2007 >>>
Home Underdogs on Monday night have gone 12-12 ATS & 11-13 SU
Home Underdogs (>=7 ) on Monday night have gone
3-0 ATS & 2-1 SU
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Posted:
#145
am now looking at the Under on MNF though as history is on the side of the under ....with no MNF matchups going over when the line is set @ above 52 since 1996 ( 3 unders )
and no overs have been registered since 1996 for either club when the total has been set at >= 52 since 1996 ( 5 unders combined )
The Under seems to be the right play ....
Line is climbing as well...which I love to see
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