My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, as annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe how the teams are performing before betting real money.
It's fun to have good results...but over the years, hard earned experience in the betting trenches, I've learned to be very cautious in wake of a HOT streak -- because that's when I can expect a change in the weather pattern (ie, beatdown likely coming) It's like entering hurricane season in Florida....we can't stop it, all we can do is prepare for it. I'll still cap the games same as usual but starting now I'm cutting back 25% on my bet size. And if I get lucky and continue this hot streak again this week (ie, 70% or better), I'll chop my bet sizes in HALF thereafter.
2
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, as annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe how the teams are performing before betting real money.
It's fun to have good results...but over the years, hard earned experience in the betting trenches, I've learned to be very cautious in wake of a HOT streak -- because that's when I can expect a change in the weather pattern (ie, beatdown likely coming) It's like entering hurricane season in Florida....we can't stop it, all we can do is prepare for it. I'll still cap the games same as usual but starting now I'm cutting back 25% on my bet size. And if I get lucky and continue this hot streak again this week (ie, 70% or better), I'll chop my bet sizes in HALF thereafter.
*As noted above, I am on a HOT streak and that usually spells BAD NEWS. Regression toward the mean is looming! Fading these might be a good bet, but then again, I'm not sure of that either. No matter, I do like these and haven't altered my capping style, BUT I have cut my wager size in anticipation of the higher risks during a hot streak.
If my history follows I'll likely lose this weekend...
Week 10 risky bets : (buying pts at some)
Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet Dolphins -192 *Best Bet Titans -150 *Best Bet daaahhBears -146 *Best Bet Giants -216 *Best Bet Chiefs -2.5-350 *Best Bet Steelers +3.5-160 *Best Bet Cowboys -207 *Best Bet 49ers -291 *Best Bet daahRaiduhs -216
GL with YOUR bets this week, fellas!!
to my fellow vets:
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*As noted above, I am on a HOT streak and that usually spells BAD NEWS. Regression toward the mean is looming! Fading these might be a good bet, but then again, I'm not sure of that either. No matter, I do like these and haven't altered my capping style, BUT I have cut my wager size in anticipation of the higher risks during a hot streak.
If my history follows I'll likely lose this weekend...
Week 10 risky bets : (buying pts at some)
Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet Dolphins -192 *Best Bet Titans -150 *Best Bet daaahhBears -146 *Best Bet Giants -216 *Best Bet Chiefs -2.5-350 *Best Bet Steelers +3.5-160 *Best Bet Cowboys -207 *Best Bet 49ers -291 *Best Bet daahRaiduhs -216
*If my history follows I'll likely lose this weekend...
*As noted above, I am on a HOT streak and that usually spells BAD NEWS. Regression toward the mean is looming! Fading these might be a good bet, but then again, I'm not sure of that either. No matter, I do like these and haven't altered my capping style, BUT I have cut my wager size in anticipation of the higher risks during a hot streak.
If my history follows I'll likely lose this weekend...
Week 10 risky bets : (buying pts at some)
Loser Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet
And it has begun The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field.
As noted above, my betting history over decades typically turns ugly following a hot streak. Nothing I can do about it, because backing off the succeeding week does nothing. Still happens whenever I restart betting. Inevitable. HOT STREAKS do not last. Best I can do is slash my bet size and play through it, minimizing my losses. I've done that.
But this is probably a betting-profit opportunity FOR YOU ......to fade some of these (above)
Regardless what you do, I sincerely wish YOU good profits with YOUR bets today!
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
*If my history follows I'll likely lose this weekend...
*As noted above, I am on a HOT streak and that usually spells BAD NEWS. Regression toward the mean is looming! Fading these might be a good bet, but then again, I'm not sure of that either. No matter, I do like these and haven't altered my capping style, BUT I have cut my wager size in anticipation of the higher risks during a hot streak.
If my history follows I'll likely lose this weekend...
Week 10 risky bets : (buying pts at some)
Loser Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet
And it has begun The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field.
As noted above, my betting history over decades typically turns ugly following a hot streak. Nothing I can do about it, because backing off the succeeding week does nothing. Still happens whenever I restart betting. Inevitable. HOT STREAKS do not last. Best I can do is slash my bet size and play through it, minimizing my losses. I've done that.
But this is probably a betting-profit opportunity FOR YOU ......to fade some of these (above)
Regardless what you do, I sincerely wish YOU good profits with YOUR bets today!
Loser Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet And it has begun The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field. As noted above, my betting history over decades typically turns ugly following a hot streak. Nothing I can do about it, because backing off the succeeding week does nothing. Still happens whenever I restart betting. Inevitable. HOT STREAKS do not last. Best I can do is slash my bet size and play through it, minimizing my losses. I've done that. But this is probably a betting-profit opportunity FOR YOU ......to fade some of these (above) Regardless what you do, I sincerely wish YOU good profits with YOUR bets today!
Sure enough......as predicted......the hot streak crashed and I lost -1.14 net units, albeit at 25% smaller bet sizes.
Adding MNF:
EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Loser Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet And it has begun The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field. As noted above, my betting history over decades typically turns ugly following a hot streak. Nothing I can do about it, because backing off the succeeding week does nothing. Still happens whenever I restart betting. Inevitable. HOT STREAKS do not last. Best I can do is slash my bet size and play through it, minimizing my losses. I've done that. But this is probably a betting-profit opportunity FOR YOU ......to fade some of these (above) Regardless what you do, I sincerely wish YOU good profits with YOUR bets today!
Sure enough......as predicted......the hot streak crashed and I lost -1.14 net units, albeit at 25% smaller bet sizes.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Loser Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet And it has begun The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field. As noted above, my betting history over decades typically turns ugly following a hot streak. Nothing I can do about it, because backing off the succeeding week does nothing. Still happens whenever I restart betting. Inevitable. HOT STREAKS do not last. Best I can do is slash my bet size and play through it, minimizing my losses. I've done that. But this is probably a betting-profit opportunity FOR YOU ......to fade some of these (above) Regardless what you do, I sincerely wish YOU good profits with YOUR bets today! Sure enough......as predicted......the hot streak crashed and I lost -1.14 net units, albeit at 25% smaller bet sizes. Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet
no way i would ever risk so much chalk
but good luck
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Loser Seahawks +3.5-145 *Best Bet And it has begun The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field. As noted above, my betting history over decades typically turns ugly following a hot streak. Nothing I can do about it, because backing off the succeeding week does nothing. Still happens whenever I restart betting. Inevitable. HOT STREAKS do not last. Best I can do is slash my bet size and play through it, minimizing my losses. I've done that. But this is probably a betting-profit opportunity FOR YOU ......to fade some of these (above) Regardless what you do, I sincerely wish YOU good profits with YOUR bets today! Sure enough......as predicted......the hot streak crashed and I lost -1.14 net units, albeit at 25% smaller bet sizes. Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet
Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game.
Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again.
Onward.
TNF:
Titans +10 -307 buying pts @BetCRIS *BEST BET
BoL with your bets tonight, fellas
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet
Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game.
Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game. Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again. Onward.
Winnerpeg Blue Bombers -245 to defeat Toronto Argos
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game. Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again. Onward.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game. Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again. Onward.
Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets: (buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BB W Ravens -6-256 *BB W Falcons -150 W Bills -370 *BB L Giants -165 *BB W Saints -143 L Broncos -145 *BB W Bengals -180 *BB L Vikings +8.5-280 *BB
MNF in Mexico: 49ers -3-315 *BB
GL with your bets this week fellas!
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game. Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again. Onward.
Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets: (buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BB W Ravens -6-256 *BB W Falcons -150 W Bills -370 *BB L Giants -165 *BB W Saints -143 L Broncos -145 *BB W Bengals -180 *BB L Vikings +8.5-280 *BB
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game. Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again. Onward. Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets:(buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BBW Ravens -6-256 *BBW Falcons -150W Bills -370 *BBL Giants -165 *BBW Saints -143L Broncos -145 *BBW Bengals -180 *BBL Vikings +8.5-280 *BB MNF in Mexico:49ers -3-315 *BB
GL with your bets this week fellas!
Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets: (buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BB W Ravens -6-256 *BB W Falcons -150 W Bills -370 *BB L Giants -165 *BB W Saints -143 L Broncos -145 *BB W Bengals -180 *BB L Vikings +8.5-280 *BB W 49ers -3-315 *BB
7 - 3
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding MNF: EAGLES -1 -500 *Best Bet Huge loss ....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game. Hopefully this ends the anticipated correction to my recent HOT STREAK that I had predicted (above), and so I am returning to betting full units again. Onward. Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets:(buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BBW Ravens -6-256 *BBW Falcons -150W Bills -370 *BBL Giants -165 *BBW Saints -143L Broncos -145 *BBW Bengals -180 *BBL Vikings +8.5-280 *BB MNF in Mexico:49ers -3-315 *BB
GL with your bets this week fellas!
Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets: (buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BB W Ravens -6-256 *BB W Falcons -150 W Bills -370 *BB L Giants -165 *BB W Saints -143 L Broncos -145 *BB W Bengals -180 *BB L Vikings +8.5-280 *BB W 49ers -3-315 *BB
Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets: (buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BB W Ravens -6-256 *BB W Falcons -150 W Bills -370 *BB L Giants -165 *BB W Saints -143 L Broncos -145 *BB W Bengals -180 *BB L Vikings +8.5-280 *BB W 49ers -3-315 *BB
7 - 3
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, gentlemen!
Are we all looking forward to 4 very long days of football?
Plus the festivities, the meal, and don't forget the massive sales this week!!!
And we get to do it all over again in 4 weeks. LOL
All the best to you with your bets this week!
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
.
Week 11, Nov 20, risky bets: (buying pts at some) W Titans +10-307 *BB W Ravens -6-256 *BB W Falcons -150 W Bills -370 *BB L Giants -165 *BB W Saints -143 L Broncos -145 *BB W Bengals -180 *BB L Vikings +8.5-280 *BB W 49ers -3-315 *BB
7 - 3
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, gentlemen!
Are we all looking forward to 4 very long days of football?
Plus the festivities, the meal, and don't forget the massive sales this week!!!
And we get to do it all over again in 4 weeks. LOL
By my reckoning, the Lions have been fortunate to win their last 3 games. They've been outplayed statistically in each and beneficiaries of considerable good fortune. While the Lions did lose at home to mediocre Dolphins by 27-31, they were fortunate to be that close as they got the game's only turnover at their 22 when Tua was driving in for the tying score. Playing at home vs a mediocre team, +1 net turnover to end a scoring drive and keep the game close
Lions next game, also at home, also against a mediocre opponent (Green Bay) was a shocker to most who watched it. I had posted my bet on the Lions to cover 10 pts, but even I thought no way they would actually win straight up. Rogers played horribly and tossed 3 INTs! Two of those were early in the game after the Packers had driven down inside the Lions 6 yd line, and turned over in the endzone, denying 14 points on the board early! The lions were outgained by 135 yards too, but hung on to get the lucky win, at home, thanks to that lucky turn of events in the first Q. Playing at home vs a mediocre team, +2 net turnovers in the endzone to deny Packers 14 pts
more...
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Some key notes about the early game...
By my reckoning, the Lions have been fortunate to win their last 3 games. They've been outplayed statistically in each and beneficiaries of considerable good fortune. While the Lions did lose at home to mediocre Dolphins by 27-31, they were fortunate to be that close as they got the game's only turnover at their 22 when Tua was driving in for the tying score. Playing at home vs a mediocre team, +1 net turnover to end a scoring drive and keep the game close
Lions next game, also at home, also against a mediocre opponent (Green Bay) was a shocker to most who watched it. I had posted my bet on the Lions to cover 10 pts, but even I thought no way they would actually win straight up. Rogers played horribly and tossed 3 INTs! Two of those were early in the game after the Packers had driven down inside the Lions 6 yd line, and turned over in the endzone, denying 14 points on the board early! The lions were outgained by 135 yards too, but hung on to get the lucky win, at home, thanks to that lucky turn of events in the first Q. Playing at home vs a mediocre team, +2 net turnovers in the endzone to deny Packers 14 pts
Their next game they took to the road against a struggling 3 - 6 team, daaaaaBears, where more great fortune smiled on them. They were outplayed, 85 fewer yards gained and only 5.5 ypp compared to the Bears 7.0 ypp! And they needed the +71 net yards in penalty margin in their favor. Additionally, the lone turnover in the game went their way as well - a pick-6 from Chicago's 17 yd line. Despite being outplayed, but gaining big breaks on penalty yardage and that pick-6 the BEars missed a routine PAT, leaving the door open for the lucky Lions to win with a converted TD with 9 minutes left. A one point win against a bad team, where the lucky pick-6 from the 17 was the difference between a win and a loss. Playing on the road but against a weak opponent, +1 net turnover, a pick-6 in a one point win
Then on Sunday, Lucky Lions faced a decent Giants squad on the road. I took the Giants straight up, figuring the Lions luck from the past 3 games - making them look better than they really are - would end in East Rutherford. I was wrong. Although the lucky Lions were outplayed for the 4th consecutive game, they gained all 3 of the game's turnovers....one from the 18 leading to an easy TD, and another from the 33 leading to another quick TD. Playing on the road vs a decent team, a whopping +3 net turnovers!
Three straight wins has the Lions fans and the Lions themselves believing! Maybe even some bettors too! With 7 games left there's actually an outside chance the Lucky Lions could win the NFC north (if the Vikings tank). Hope is eternal! But today they are finally facing a powerful team. Bills rated among the top 3 teams in the league for good reasons. Lions have the worst defense overall and are the 5th WORST pass defence, while Bills have the #2 best offense overall (behind KC) and #3 best passing attack. Have to figure the powerful Bills are still fuming about that fluke loss at home to the Vikings and have something to prove to right the ship. I do not believe the Lions luck will extend to 5 games. They are not facing a weak or mediocre squad this game! All things being equal, the better team here should win outright by double-digits, imo. But there's the rub. The lucky Lions *could* get lucky once again! It certainly can happen! And they will likely need the breaks to cover the spread and most certainly need multiple breaks to win outright vs arguably the best team in the league. Bills -3-298
3
Their next game they took to the road against a struggling 3 - 6 team, daaaaaBears, where more great fortune smiled on them. They were outplayed, 85 fewer yards gained and only 5.5 ypp compared to the Bears 7.0 ypp! And they needed the +71 net yards in penalty margin in their favor. Additionally, the lone turnover in the game went their way as well - a pick-6 from Chicago's 17 yd line. Despite being outplayed, but gaining big breaks on penalty yardage and that pick-6 the BEars missed a routine PAT, leaving the door open for the lucky Lions to win with a converted TD with 9 minutes left. A one point win against a bad team, where the lucky pick-6 from the 17 was the difference between a win and a loss. Playing on the road but against a weak opponent, +1 net turnover, a pick-6 in a one point win
Then on Sunday, Lucky Lions faced a decent Giants squad on the road. I took the Giants straight up, figuring the Lions luck from the past 3 games - making them look better than they really are - would end in East Rutherford. I was wrong. Although the lucky Lions were outplayed for the 4th consecutive game, they gained all 3 of the game's turnovers....one from the 18 leading to an easy TD, and another from the 33 leading to another quick TD. Playing on the road vs a decent team, a whopping +3 net turnovers!
Three straight wins has the Lions fans and the Lions themselves believing! Maybe even some bettors too! With 7 games left there's actually an outside chance the Lucky Lions could win the NFC north (if the Vikings tank). Hope is eternal! But today they are finally facing a powerful team. Bills rated among the top 3 teams in the league for good reasons. Lions have the worst defense overall and are the 5th WORST pass defence, while Bills have the #2 best offense overall (behind KC) and #3 best passing attack. Have to figure the powerful Bills are still fuming about that fluke loss at home to the Vikings and have something to prove to right the ship. I do not believe the Lions luck will extend to 5 games. They are not facing a weak or mediocre squad this game! All things being equal, the better team here should win outright by double-digits, imo. But there's the rub. The lucky Lions *could* get lucky once again! It certainly can happen! And they will likely need the breaks to cover the spread and most certainly need multiple breaks to win outright vs arguably the best team in the league. Bills -3-298
Their next game they took to the road against a struggling 3 - 6 team, daaaaaBears, where more great fortune smiled on them. They were outplayed, 85 fewer yards gained and only 5.5 ypp compared to the Bears 7.0 ypp! And they needed the +71 net yards in penalty margin in their favor. Additionally, the lone turnover in the game went their way as well - a pick-6 from Chicago's 17 yd line. Despite being outplayed, but gaining big breaks on penalty yardage and that pick-6 the BEars missed a routine PAT, leaving the door open for the lucky Lions to win with a converted TD with 9 minutes left. A one point win against a bad team, where the lucky pick-6 from the 17 was the difference between a win and a loss.Playing on the road but against a weak opponent,+1 net turnover, a pick-6 in a one point win Then on Sunday, Lucky Lions faced a decent Giants squad on the road. I took the Giants straight up, figuring the Lions luck from the past 3 games - making them look better than they really are - would end in East Rutherford. I was wrong. Although the lucky Lions were outplayed for the 4th consecutive game, they gained all 3 of the game's turnovers....one from the 18 leading to an easy TD, and another from the 33 leading to another quick TD.Playing on the road vs a decent team,a whopping +3 net turnovers! Three straight wins has the Lions fans and the Lions themselves believing! Maybe even some bettors too! With 7 games left there's actually an outside chance the Lucky Lions could win the NFC north (if the Vikings tank). Hope is eternal! But today they are finally facing a powerful team. Bills rated among the top 3 teams in the league for good reasons. Lions have the worst defense overall and are the 5th WORST pass defence, while Bills have the #2 best offense overall (behind KC) and #3 best passing attack.Have to figure the powerful Bills are still fuming about that fluke loss at home to the Vikings and have something to prove to right the ship.I do not believe the Lions luck will extend to 5 games. They are not facing a weak or mediocre squad this game!All things being equal, the better team here should win outright by double-digits, imo. But there's the rub. The lucky Lions *could* get lucky once again! It certainly can happen! And they will likely need the breaks to cover the spread and most certainly need multiple breaks to win outright vs arguably the best team in the league.Bills -3-298
That's a lot of juice to risk against a hot team playing at home on a short week. Hard to pass up Detroit getting 10 pts here.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Their next game they took to the road against a struggling 3 - 6 team, daaaaaBears, where more great fortune smiled on them. They were outplayed, 85 fewer yards gained and only 5.5 ypp compared to the Bears 7.0 ypp! And they needed the +71 net yards in penalty margin in their favor. Additionally, the lone turnover in the game went their way as well - a pick-6 from Chicago's 17 yd line. Despite being outplayed, but gaining big breaks on penalty yardage and that pick-6 the BEars missed a routine PAT, leaving the door open for the lucky Lions to win with a converted TD with 9 minutes left. A one point win against a bad team, where the lucky pick-6 from the 17 was the difference between a win and a loss.Playing on the road but against a weak opponent,+1 net turnover, a pick-6 in a one point win Then on Sunday, Lucky Lions faced a decent Giants squad on the road. I took the Giants straight up, figuring the Lions luck from the past 3 games - making them look better than they really are - would end in East Rutherford. I was wrong. Although the lucky Lions were outplayed for the 4th consecutive game, they gained all 3 of the game's turnovers....one from the 18 leading to an easy TD, and another from the 33 leading to another quick TD.Playing on the road vs a decent team,a whopping +3 net turnovers! Three straight wins has the Lions fans and the Lions themselves believing! Maybe even some bettors too! With 7 games left there's actually an outside chance the Lucky Lions could win the NFC north (if the Vikings tank). Hope is eternal! But today they are finally facing a powerful team. Bills rated among the top 3 teams in the league for good reasons. Lions have the worst defense overall and are the 5th WORST pass defence, while Bills have the #2 best offense overall (behind KC) and #3 best passing attack.Have to figure the powerful Bills are still fuming about that fluke loss at home to the Vikings and have something to prove to right the ship.I do not believe the Lions luck will extend to 5 games. They are not facing a weak or mediocre squad this game!All things being equal, the better team here should win outright by double-digits, imo. But there's the rub. The lucky Lions *could* get lucky once again! It certainly can happen! And they will likely need the breaks to cover the spread and most certainly need multiple breaks to win outright vs arguably the best team in the league.Bills -3-298
That's a lot of juice to risk against a hot team playing at home on a short week. Hard to pass up Detroit getting 10 pts here.
Are you buying down to -3 for -298? Thanks Lantz54
Yes. Given the Lions luck of late I didn't want to risk -485 on the ML but still believe Bills odds of winning are very high here, so they should cover a fieldgoal, I hope.
Lions looked impressive on their TD drive. No luck there.
GL with your bets today
2
Quote Originally Posted by Lantz54:
Are you buying down to -3 for -298? Thanks Lantz54
Yes. Given the Lions luck of late I didn't want to risk -485 on the ML but still believe Bills odds of winning are very high here, so they should cover a fieldgoal, I hope.
Lions looked impressive on their TD drive. No luck there.
Great info write up keep them coming. Much appreciated. I suggested you take the OVER 2. Happy Thanksgiving
Thank you.
I am walking a tightrope though due to my legendary "writeups curse."
And sure enough, although the Bills gain a turnover and turn it into points, offsetting that gain is now the loss of Vonn Miller for the game, which is tied now. Lions covering the pt spread looks really good right now. Could have a shootout brewing here.
2
Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha:
Great info write up keep them coming. Much appreciated. I suggested you take the OVER 2. Happy Thanksgiving
Thank you.
I am walking a tightrope though due to my legendary "writeups curse."
And sure enough, although the Bills gain a turnover and turn it into points, offsetting that gain is now the loss of Vonn Miller for the game, which is tied now. Lions covering the pt spread looks really good right now. Could have a shootout brewing here.
Their next game they took to the road against a struggling 3 - 6 team, daaaaaBears, where more great fortune smiled on them. They were outplayed, 85 fewer yards gained and only 5.5 ypp compared to the Bears 7.0 ypp! And they needed the +71 net yards in penalty margin in their favor. Additionally, the lone turnover in the game went their way as well - a pick-6 from Chicago's 17 yd line. Despite being outplayed, but gaining big breaks on penalty yardage and that pick-6 the BEars missed a routine PAT, leaving the door open for the lucky Lions to win with a converted TD with 9 minutes left. A one point win against a bad team, where the lucky pick-6 from the 17 was the difference between a win and a loss.Playing on the road but against a weak opponent,+1 net turnover, a pick-6 in a one point win Then on Sunday, Lucky Lions faced a decent Giants squad on the road. I took the Giants straight up, figuring the Lions luck from the past 3 games - making them look better than they really are - would end in East Rutherford. I was wrong. Although the lucky Lions were outplayed for the 4th consecutive game, they gained all 3 of the game's turnovers....one from the 18 leading to an easy TD, and another from the 33 leading to another quick TD.Playing on the road vs a decent team,a whopping +3 net turnovers! Three straight wins has the Lions fans and the Lions themselves believing! Maybe even some bettors too! With 7 games left there's actually an outside chance the Lucky Lions could win the NFC north (if the Vikings tank). Hope is eternal! But today they are finally facing a powerful team. Bills rated among the top 3 teams in the league for good reasons. Lions have the worst defense overall and are the 5th WORST pass defence, while Bills have the #2 best offense overall (behind KC) and #3 best passing attack.Have to figure the powerful Bills are still fuming about that fluke loss at home to the Vikings and have something to prove to right the ship.I do not believe the Lions luck will extend to 5 games. They are not facing a weak or mediocre squad this game!All things being equal, the better team here should win outright by double-digits, imo.But there's the rub. The lucky Lions *could* get lucky once again! It certainly can happen! And they will likely need the breaks to cover the spread and most certainly need multiple breaks to win outright vs arguably the best team in the league.
Bills -3-298
Cowboys -3-350
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Their next game they took to the road against a struggling 3 - 6 team, daaaaaBears, where more great fortune smiled on them. They were outplayed, 85 fewer yards gained and only 5.5 ypp compared to the Bears 7.0 ypp! And they needed the +71 net yards in penalty margin in their favor. Additionally, the lone turnover in the game went their way as well - a pick-6 from Chicago's 17 yd line. Despite being outplayed, but gaining big breaks on penalty yardage and that pick-6 the BEars missed a routine PAT, leaving the door open for the lucky Lions to win with a converted TD with 9 minutes left. A one point win against a bad team, where the lucky pick-6 from the 17 was the difference between a win and a loss.Playing on the road but against a weak opponent,+1 net turnover, a pick-6 in a one point win Then on Sunday, Lucky Lions faced a decent Giants squad on the road. I took the Giants straight up, figuring the Lions luck from the past 3 games - making them look better than they really are - would end in East Rutherford. I was wrong. Although the lucky Lions were outplayed for the 4th consecutive game, they gained all 3 of the game's turnovers....one from the 18 leading to an easy TD, and another from the 33 leading to another quick TD.Playing on the road vs a decent team,a whopping +3 net turnovers! Three straight wins has the Lions fans and the Lions themselves believing! Maybe even some bettors too! With 7 games left there's actually an outside chance the Lucky Lions could win the NFC north (if the Vikings tank). Hope is eternal! But today they are finally facing a powerful team. Bills rated among the top 3 teams in the league for good reasons. Lions have the worst defense overall and are the 5th WORST pass defence, while Bills have the #2 best offense overall (behind KC) and #3 best passing attack.Have to figure the powerful Bills are still fuming about that fluke loss at home to the Vikings and have something to prove to right the ship.I do not believe the Lions luck will extend to 5 games. They are not facing a weak or mediocre squad this game!All things being equal, the better team here should win outright by double-digits, imo.But there's the rub. The lucky Lions *could* get lucky once again! It certainly can happen! And they will likely need the breaks to cover the spread and most certainly need multiple breaks to win outright vs arguably the best team in the league.
Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha: Great info write up keep them coming. Much appreciated. I suggested you take the OVER 2. Happy Thanksgiving Thank you. I am walking a tightrope though due to my legendary "writeups curse." And sure enough, although the Bills gain a turnover and turn it into points, offsetting that gain is now the loss of Vonn Miller for the game, which is tied now. Lions covering the pt spread looks really good right now. Could have a shootout brewing here.
Wow. Bills miss a PAT after making 105 consecutive without a miss. That means Lucky Lions only need a FG to tie it instead of a TD. Huge break for Lions.
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha: Great info write up keep them coming. Much appreciated. I suggested you take the OVER 2. Happy Thanksgiving Thank you. I am walking a tightrope though due to my legendary "writeups curse." And sure enough, although the Bills gain a turnover and turn it into points, offsetting that gain is now the loss of Vonn Miller for the game, which is tied now. Lions covering the pt spread looks really good right now. Could have a shootout brewing here.
Wow. Bills miss a PAT after making 105 consecutive without a miss. That means Lucky Lions only need a FG to tie it instead of a TD. Huge break for Lions.
Wow. Bills miss a PAT after making 105 consecutive without a miss. That means Lucky Lions only need a FG to tie it instead of a TD. Huge break for Lions.
Pushed because of that fluky missed PAT
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Wow. Bills miss a PAT after making 105 consecutive without a miss. That means Lucky Lions only need a FG to tie it instead of a TD. Huge break for Lions.
to my fellow vets: 
The better team not only loses outright but fails to cover as an underdog on a neutral field.
......to fade some of these (above)
....but I've never been able to accurately predict net turnovers and their impact in a given game.
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