🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

Bengals +7.5 -240  *Best Bet

?? Bengals +7.5-240      *BEST BET   (pending)

You made my day, thanks Fubah!

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

You made my day, thanks Fubah!

Thank you, sir!

YTD: 44 - 17  (to begin week 13)
----------------------------------------------

Thursday:
Lose  Pats +10.5-260 *BEST BET
W   BILLS -198

Sunday:
W   Lions +4.5-222        *BEST BET
W   Vikings -150
W   Eagles -220            *BEST BET
W   Giants +3.5-160
W   Bengals +7.5-240     *BEST BET

@fubah2

These two bets were winners as well but you forgot to add them in your summary

Nice day!

Ahhh yeah....I forget to add those two!

Thanks for the heads up!

Thursday:
Lose   Pats +10.5-260   *BEST BET
W   BILLS -198

Sunday:

W   Lions +3.5-177         *BEST BET

W   Bengals +3.5-177     *BEST BET

W   Lions +4.5-222        *BEST BET

W   Vikings -150

W   Eagles -220             *BEST BET

W   Giants +3.5-160

W   Bengals +7.5-240     *BEST BET

=    8 - 1         (5 - 1 *BB)

Should have a bet on tonight too.... double checking injury info first

For Tampa, four starters are out -- safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) and Mike Edwards (hamstring),  tight end Cameron Brate (illness), CB Murphy-Bunting

Very questionable, on the defensive line: Nose tackle Vita Vea (foot) and Akiem Hicks (foot)

Both defenses hurting!   Is this going to be a shoot out??

High risk bet on MNF, Dec 5:

Bucs -175

Brady's offense sure misses having Gronk in there this year but I obviously got lucky with this bet.

That luck is about to run out almost certainly over my next 10-20 NFL bets.   Typical "correction" in the markets.

Always happens at the peak of a hot streak (25 - 5 the past 3 weeks) So while I had trimmed my bets this past weekend to 75% of normal, I will now drop my bet sizes to just 66% of normal, all in begrudging anticipation of the inevitable "correction" headed my way (to significantly reduce my expected losses)

I also have $10,800 invested in the Georgia runoff, on Reverend Warnock

Mucho congratulations.

51-49 beats 50-50.

          @fubah2 

@fubah2

  = Warnock!

Thank you, sir!   BoL with your bets this week!

@Zeus4par  Thank you sir.  GL to you with your bets this week!

My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5)
Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe
how the teams are performing before betting real money.

Week 05:  1 - 1      (1 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 06:  1 - 1      (1 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 07:  4 - 3      (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 08:  7 - 2      (4 - 2 *Best Bets)
Week 09:  9 - 1      (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 10:  6 - 5*    (5 - 4 *Best Bets) (heavy losses on juice)
Week 11:   7 - 3~     (5 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 12:   9 - 1       (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 13:   9 - 1*     (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 14:       **
-------------------------------------------
YTD: 53 - 18

  *Reduced my bet sizes to 75% anticipating correction to HOT Streak
**Reducing my bet sizes again, now to 66% usual size.
~ resumed normal bet sizes week 11 & 12

@fubah2

WARNING!

I am on a 25 - 5 HOT STREAK. That's actually BAD NEWS for future bets because such streaks NEVER persist, and in my capping history, usually blowup with a BANG! So I am once again proceeding with caution by reducing my bet sizes. I haven't altered my capping method, but the law of averages is going to hit sooner or later and yield a "market correction."  Could blow up this weekend. Or not. Or I may get mixed results. Trouble is I don't know which ones will lose and which will win. But I believe the odds are solid that I most likely flirt with mixed results this weekend, starting the "market correction" to my season...........or I could be wrong.

I have hit 31 - 10 on Home Favs this year, so far, but remember, I am now due for a bad week, and probably soon. Sorry, I wish I could be more optimistic but like my Dad always used to say: "That's just the way the cookie bounces"

My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:
BENGALS -238     *BB
BILLS -2.5-342     *BB

Just a thought but if you're so concerned that losing is imminent why not just back off for a week or two until after your "correction" happens?

Gl buddy ..you are spot on about regression

Seems logical, and I have thought about it ....but the problem is, at least for me, I've done that before a few times, and it just didn't matter.  When I waited it out and got back to betting/posting after "losing on paper" I still got whacked.  So I figure since I'm gonna get thumped with mounting losses anyway the best I can do is either a) quit altogether (not an option) or b) significantly cut back on my bet sizes and endure those losses, then resume my normal wages after the storm passes. 

Sound reasonable?

The two I posted for today are *BEST BETS I feel strong about but I have resisted betting/posting 3 others that I normally would.

If these two both cover (Bengals and Bills) then I'll risk a couple more for the late pm games

GL to you with your bets today!

Thank you.    I suppose there are mixed views on how best to deal with it but the reality about regression never changes when on a super hot streak, like 25 - 5.  There's real cause for concern.  In retrospect I might prefer to just go maybe 6 - 4 every week and avoid a crippling "market correction" from a hot streak.

The other thing is it may not be a disaster for one given week, but rather like maybe  a couple net losses for each of the next few weeks, working out to be about the same net regression. 

But I do think that scaling back my wager size and toughing it out is worth a try.

So my point isn't lost, I point all this out so that forum members are alerted than when they see my records (above) it's not a good time now to jump on any pics I post!

Was considering the Chargers as home dogs earlier but ...

LOS ANGELES -- The Chargers will be without several key players on defense when they face the Dolphins on "Sunday Night Football."

Safety Derwin James Jr., defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day and cornerback Bryce Callahan will be out because of injuries, a source told ESPN.
Right tackle Trey Pipkins III, listed as doubtful, also is expected to be out as he continues to nurse a knee injury that sidelined him last Sunday.

James leads the Chargers with 106 tackles