Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
Now we have 2 full days of solid college football
GL with your bets this weekend, gentlemen! 
2
🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets
Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by AllDay51:
@fubah2 Where’d you get these lines? Alternate lines?
@fubah2 Where’d you get these lines? Alternate lines?
Yes, correct. Of course as you can see from the juice I do pay aheavy price to buy down the pts, but I try and pick and choose carefully the right spots to do it based on my assessment of overall probabilities of winning.
Two weeks ago I took an "alternate line" at -1 -500......and lost
It happens
1
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
7 - 3 last week
7 - 3 last week
Week 12 so far:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
W Commanders -185
W NY Jets -290
W Dolphins -6-280
W Jaguars +10.5-270
W Browns +10-298
W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET
Seahawks -200 *BB pending Eagles -300 *BB pending
2
Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Eagles -300 *BB pending
7 - 3 last week
Week 12 so far:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
W Commanders -185
W NY Jets -290
W Dolphins -6-280
W Jaguars +10.5-270
W Browns +10-298
W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET
Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET
3
Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
7 - 3 last week
7 - 3 last week
Week 12 so far:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
W Commanders -185
W NY Jets -290
W Dolphins -6-280
W Jaguars +10.5-270
W Browns +10-298
W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET
Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET
Eagles -300 *BB pending
Who do you like in the MNF game?
1
Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
7 - 3 last week
This week results:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
W Commanders -185
W NY Jets -290
W Dolphins -6-280
W Jaguars +10.5-270
W Browns +10-298
W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET
Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET
W Eagles -300 *BEST BET
9 more winners!
3
Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
7 - 3 last week
This week results:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
W Commanders -185
W NY Jets -290
W Dolphins -6-280
W Jaguars +10.5-270
W Browns +10-298
W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET
Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET
W Eagles -300 *BEST BET
9 more winners!
Heck of a run 
1
Posted:
#87
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
7 - 3 last week
7 - 3 last week
This week results:
Push Bills -3-298
W Cowboys -3-350
W Vikings -135 *BEST BET
W Commanders -185
W NY Jets -290
W Dolphins -6-280
W Jaguars +10.5-270
W Browns +10-298
W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET
Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET
W Eagles -300 *BEST BET
Heck of a run.
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022
Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe
how the teams are performing before betting real money.
Week 05: 1 - 1 (1 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 06: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 07: 4 - 3 (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 08: 7 - 2 (4 - 2 *Best Bets)
Week 09: 9 - 1 (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
**Reduced my bet sizes for Week 10 anticipating correction to 2 week HOT Streak
Week 10: 6 - 5 
(5 - 4 *Best Bets)
**Beatdown on juice, but would've been worse if I had not reduced bet sizes
Resumed normal bet size for Week 11
Week 11: 7 - 3 (5 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 12: 9 - 1 (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
------------------------------------
YTD: 44 -17
**Reducing my bet sizes again, anticipating a correction to this 2nd HOT streak
2
Posted:
#88
Quote Originally Posted by zircon:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 7 - 3 last week Week 12 so far: Push Bills -3-298 W Cowboys -3-350 W Vikings -135 *BEST BET W Commanders -185 W NY Jets -290 W Dolphins -6-280 W Jaguars +10.5-270 W Browns +10-298 W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET Eagles -300 *BB pending
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 7 - 3 last week Week 12 so far: Push Bills -3-298 W Cowboys -3-350 W Vikings -135 *BEST BET W Commanders -185 W NY Jets -290 W Dolphins -6-280 W Jaguars +10.5-270 W Browns +10-298 W 49ers -2.5-324 *BEST BET Loss Seahawks -200 *BEST BET Eagles -300 *BB pending
Who do you like in the MNF game?
Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way
1
Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
YTD: 44 -17
**Reducing my bet sizes again, anticipating a correction to this 2nd HOT streak
Who do you like in the MNF game?
Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way
In fact, I think I won't make a serious pre-game bet this evening and just play around with live action props.
But since I believe this is no more than a TD either way here's a fun prop I grabbed:
Steelers +8.5 -307 *AND* Colts +4.5 -256
*Note: posted after kickoff (Pitt gets 7 yds on 1st down) and will not count on my YTD regardless win or lose.
2
Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
YTD: 44 -17
**Reducing my bet sizes again, anticipating a correction to this 2nd HOT streak
......should be close........probably within 7 max either way In fact, I think I won't make a serious pre-game bet this evening and just play around with live action props. But since I believe this is no more than a TD either way here's a fun prop I grabbed: Steelers +8.5 -307 *AND* Colts +4.5 -256 *Note: posted after kickoff (Pitt gets 7 yds on 1st down) and will not count on my YTD regardless win or lose.
First and goal, down 6 pts at home................ and the fumble the handoff for a sure TD.......and lose it.
Flukes happen like that. There's just no consistent way to handicap when, where, or how often the breaks will occur
2
Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Who do you like in the MNF game?
Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Who do you like in the MNF game?
Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way
Thursday game...
Ordinarily I would lean toward Bills on Thursday night at -3.5 as the road fav at Patriots, but the absense of Vonn Miller now gives serious pause. He's a force and they won't have him for at least a week if not two.
Pats looking better now
1
Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Who do you like in the MNF game? Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way Thursday game... Ordinarily I would lean toward Bills on Thursday night at -3.5 as the road fav at Patriots, but the absense of Vonn Miller now gives serious pause. He's a force and they won't have him for at least a week if not two. Pats looking better now
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Who do you like in the MNF game? Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way Thursday game... Ordinarily I would lean toward Bills on Thursday night at -3.5 as the road fav at Patriots, but the absense of Vonn Miller now gives serious pause. He's a force and they won't have him for at least a week if not two. Pats looking better now
I see it the other way. While Miller is a serious loss to the front 7 they get two defensive ends back on the line. Epenesa and Rousseau. They can now freely substitute in that defensive front wall and keep them fresher with quality bookend pass rushers. Bills don't have to worry about Jones taking off with the ball. Advantage Bills!
2
Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Who do you like in the MNF game? Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way Thursday game... Ordinarily I would lean toward Bills on Thursday night at -3.5 as the road fav at Patriots, but the absense of Vonn Miller now gives serious pause. He's a force and they won't have him for at least a week if not two. Pats looking better now I see it the other way. While Miller is a serious loss to the front 7 they get two defensive ends back on the line. Epenesa and Rousseau. They can now freely substitute in that defensive front wall and keep them fresher with quality bookend pass rushers. Bills don't have to worry about Jones taking off with the ball. Advantage Bills!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by zircon: Who do you like in the MNF game? Neither........should be close........probably within 7 max either way Thursday game... Ordinarily I would lean toward Bills on Thursday night at -3.5 as the road fav at Patriots, but the absense of Vonn Miller now gives serious pause. He's a force and they won't have him for at least a week if not two. Pats looking better now I see it the other way. While Miller is a serious loss to the front 7 they get two defensive ends back on the line. Epenesa and Rousseau. They can now freely substitute in that defensive front wall and keep them fresher with quality bookend pass rushers. Bills don't have to worry about Jones taking off with the ball. Advantage Bills!
I see your point
1
Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022
Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe
how the teams are performing before betting real money.
Week 05: 1 - 1 (1 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 06: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 07: 4 - 3 (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 08: 7 - 2 (4 - 2 *Best Bets)
Week 09: 9 - 1 (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
**Reduced my bet sizes for Week 10 anticipating correction to 2 week HOT Streak
Week 10: 6 - 5 (5 - 4 *Best Bets)
**Beatdown on juice, but would've been worse if I had not reduced bet sizes
Resumed normal bet size for Week 11
Week 11: 7 - 3 (5 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 12: 9 - 1 (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
------------------------------------
YTD: 44 -17
**Reducing my bet sizes again, anticipating a correction to this 2nd HOT streak
Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction):
*I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some
Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet
Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet
GL with your bets this weekend, fellas!
2
Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
k Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas!
k Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas!
Tonight:
Patriots +10.5 -260
I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor)
2
Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: k Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor)
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: k Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor)
Upgrading my Patriots +10.5-260 to a *BEST BET
and going for a middle here, adding: BILLS -198
1
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: k Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor) Upgrading my Patriots +10.5-260 to a *BEST BET and going for a middle here, adding: BILLS -198
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: k Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor) Upgrading my Patriots +10.5-260 to a *BEST BET and going for a middle here, adding: BILLS -198
Starting LT for Bills in trouble now. It's obvious.
Pats are definitely going to exploit this on Josh Allen's blind side!!
2
Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:YTD: 44 -17
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:YTD: 44 -17
Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor) Upgrading my Patriots +10.5-260 to a *BEST BET and going for a middle here, adding: BILLS -198
**Reducing my bet sizes again, anticipating a correction to 2nd HOT streak
Split my middle shot on Thursday
Sunday's risky bets following hot streak = very risky!:
Lions +4.5-222 *BB
Vikings -150
Eagles -220 *BB
Giants +3.5-160
2
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:YTD: 44 -17 Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor) Upgrading my Patriots +10.5-260 to a *BEST BET and going for a middle here, adding: BILLS -198
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:YTD: 44 -17 Very risky bets for Week 13 (due to anticipation for correction): *I have once again trimmed my bet sizing by 25%; and buying pts on some Lions +3.5-177 *Best Bet Bengals +3.5-177 *Best Bet GL with your bets this weekend, fellas! Tonight: Patriots +10.5 -260 I see this one possibly going either way, actually. Can make a good case for either team. That said I like the cushion of 10.5 points on the homies here (yes I am paying for it but the odds it stays within 10 pts are heavily in my favor) Upgrading my Patriots +10.5-260 to a *BEST BET and going for a middle here, adding: BILLS -198
**Reducing my bet sizes again, anticipating a correction to 2nd HOT streak
Split my middle shot on Thursday
Sunday's risky bets following hot streak = very risky!:
Lions +4.5-222 *BB
Vikings -150
Eagles -220 *BB
Giants +3.5-160
GL with your bets today, fellas!!
2
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