Posted:
#1
Alright, I made a post similarly to this after week 5, and feel like I should bring a few of these points up again. It is pretty lengthy, but I feel I have some good points. Props to anyone who reads this thing through lol. I'd love to hear how you guys feel about this, because it seems too easy sofar this year. Not just betting the favorites, but the high value dogs stick out like a sore thumb as well. I've only been betting football for 4 years, and don't claim to be any sort of Guru. I only bet $250 a game, and use it as a way to make some side money for College expenses. I just call em like I see em.
First off, Vegas is not some kind of All-Knowing being like a lot of people seem to believe on here. They have much more Invested in these games than anybody else, so they clearly put alot of work into their lines. Contrary to belief, they do not know the outcome of the game before it is played. If they did, how can you explain the bloodbath that they endured this weekend, and in weeks past?
Yes, it is a matter of statistical probability, that the Public should be due for a loss. People keep fading the public because "They are due to lose". Well, betting on football isn't Roulette. There is not just blind luck involved as to why the Public has been cashing. Its not like by some fluke, the ball landed on black 10 times in a row, and a red is due up. There is a REASON why the public keeps winning, and its because Vegas is being extremely hesitant to adjust for some reason.
The amount of Heavy favorites that have been covering sofar this year is unprecedented. Vegas has been making a killing on sports betting for a long time, but they are clearly showing vulnerability this season with the loss of parity in the NFL. They are slow to adjust their lines. First the heavy favorites were laying 9 points the first few weeks of the season, and they finally adjusted around week 5 to laying 14~. This is not the same NFL of old, the colts laying 14 points isn't going to cut it against a Ram's team. There has been an increadible amount of value on a ton of games sofar this year, not just the favorites.
The books are stuck between a rock in a hard place in games involving the bottom feeders of the league, ie) St. Louis, Kansas City, Washington, Cleveland, Carolina, Detroit, etc. In the games where they play upper echelon teams, the books are only giving them 14 or so points. Yet when they play mediocre teams such as Jaxonville, or even playing against themselves, they are still getting 8-9 points (such as Washington vs St. Louis / Kansas City). There is clearly value in both of those situations, and Vegas can't figure out how to handle it. Another example for next week will be the Rams @ Lions. I am anxious to see what this line comes out as. It sounds stupid to say there will be value on a game, before you see the line, but that is how I feel. If they give the Rams too many points, people will pound the Rams. If they don't give enough, people will be all over the Lions. Can the books really have the lions laying 7+ Points to anybody? It looks like they may have to, because I for one, will pound Detriot at anything under 7 here.
Throw the public betting %'s out of the window. It is absolutely irrelevant who the public is on. You are betting against Vegas, that is it. It is important to know what the public is thinking, and how Vegas is reacting to it. Public Perception is one of the key components of analyzing a game and its line, IMO. The public perception is much more of a factor for the "Water Cooler" type of games. The games that the casual sports fan likely brings up, because that was highlighted in "Football Night in America" the day before. The games being talked about today were obviously Last night's game, and tonights game, but also the Vikings/Steelers, and Obviously New Orleans/Miami. Last weeks "Water Cooler" discussions were "How the Hell did Oakland and Buffalo beat the Eagles and Jets? Wow those teams are overrated as hell". And sure enough the Jets and Eagles both opened as only 7 point favorites to Oakland and Washington respectively. I saw a ton of value in both of these games, and jumped on them. The majority of public bettors are so wrapped up in what happened last week, and they can't see the big picture. Lets imagine that last week never happened. The Eagles never lost to the Raiders, and the Jets never lost to the Bills. Everybody and their mother would take both of those teams as 7 point favorites this week. But, because of the public perception, the books had to lower the spread to get the action. I'm a Jets homer, but I don't think we will win the division, but only laying 7 points to the Raiders... Cmon'.
So, anyway, I'll wrap this up. Basically, you are clearly seeing alot of hesitation from Vegas this year. They don't quite know how to react with these lines. Vegas clearly isn't happy about being punched in the nose by strait chalk this weekend. I expect to see them Overadjusting their lines either this week or next week. Way too many people have been riding the heavy favorite cash cow for too long now. This is the week where Las Vegas is going to dare Joe Public to keep playing the favorites.
First off, Vegas is not some kind of All-Knowing being like a lot of people seem to believe on here. They have much more Invested in these games than anybody else, so they clearly put alot of work into their lines. Contrary to belief, they do not know the outcome of the game before it is played. If they did, how can you explain the bloodbath that they endured this weekend, and in weeks past?
Yes, it is a matter of statistical probability, that the Public should be due for a loss. People keep fading the public because "They are due to lose". Well, betting on football isn't Roulette. There is not just blind luck involved as to why the Public has been cashing. Its not like by some fluke, the ball landed on black 10 times in a row, and a red is due up. There is a REASON why the public keeps winning, and its because Vegas is being extremely hesitant to adjust for some reason.
The amount of Heavy favorites that have been covering sofar this year is unprecedented. Vegas has been making a killing on sports betting for a long time, but they are clearly showing vulnerability this season with the loss of parity in the NFL. They are slow to adjust their lines. First the heavy favorites were laying 9 points the first few weeks of the season, and they finally adjusted around week 5 to laying 14~. This is not the same NFL of old, the colts laying 14 points isn't going to cut it against a Ram's team. There has been an increadible amount of value on a ton of games sofar this year, not just the favorites.
The books are stuck between a rock in a hard place in games involving the bottom feeders of the league, ie) St. Louis, Kansas City, Washington, Cleveland, Carolina, Detroit, etc. In the games where they play upper echelon teams, the books are only giving them 14 or so points. Yet when they play mediocre teams such as Jaxonville, or even playing against themselves, they are still getting 8-9 points (such as Washington vs St. Louis / Kansas City). There is clearly value in both of those situations, and Vegas can't figure out how to handle it. Another example for next week will be the Rams @ Lions. I am anxious to see what this line comes out as. It sounds stupid to say there will be value on a game, before you see the line, but that is how I feel. If they give the Rams too many points, people will pound the Rams. If they don't give enough, people will be all over the Lions. Can the books really have the lions laying 7+ Points to anybody? It looks like they may have to, because I for one, will pound Detriot at anything under 7 here.
Throw the public betting %'s out of the window. It is absolutely irrelevant who the public is on. You are betting against Vegas, that is it. It is important to know what the public is thinking, and how Vegas is reacting to it. Public Perception is one of the key components of analyzing a game and its line, IMO. The public perception is much more of a factor for the "Water Cooler" type of games. The games that the casual sports fan likely brings up, because that was highlighted in "Football Night in America" the day before. The games being talked about today were obviously Last night's game, and tonights game, but also the Vikings/Steelers, and Obviously New Orleans/Miami. Last weeks "Water Cooler" discussions were "How the Hell did Oakland and Buffalo beat the Eagles and Jets? Wow those teams are overrated as hell". And sure enough the Jets and Eagles both opened as only 7 point favorites to Oakland and Washington respectively. I saw a ton of value in both of these games, and jumped on them. The majority of public bettors are so wrapped up in what happened last week, and they can't see the big picture. Lets imagine that last week never happened. The Eagles never lost to the Raiders, and the Jets never lost to the Bills. Everybody and their mother would take both of those teams as 7 point favorites this week. But, because of the public perception, the books had to lower the spread to get the action. I'm a Jets homer, but I don't think we will win the division, but only laying 7 points to the Raiders... Cmon'.
So, anyway, I'll wrap this up. Basically, you are clearly seeing alot of hesitation from Vegas this year. They don't quite know how to react with these lines. Vegas clearly isn't happy about being punched in the nose by strait chalk this weekend. I expect to see them Overadjusting their lines either this week or next week. Way too many people have been riding the heavy favorite cash cow for too long now. This is the week where Las Vegas is going to dare Joe Public to keep playing the favorites.
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