I understand it is a division game; Jacksonville plays many games in London due to their stadium being renovated. They butchered the last game and lost to the Eagles with 8 secs on the clock. Jacksonville doesn't need to travel since they're staying in London back-to-back weeks.
Ever have that gut feeling when the line is too easy? Vegas is begging everyone to take jags -2.5 and ML.
Thoughts?
Texans went 0-4 SUATS 1st 4 games and finally got a victory. Usually thats good for the next game. Their 4 losses were all close except the Bengals who they outgained by over 100 yards. Texans are 13-3 SU vs Jags last 16
That 2.5 can be tricky. 2.5 on Seattle on Thursday that wouldn’t go to 3 no matter how much Seattle money they were taking.
Mike Palm , VP of Circa was on Follow The Money this week talking about that game. He said that in his weekly meeting with the oddsmakers/risk managers and the CEO Derek Stevens that they were extremely lopsided on Seattle. When they asked their team if they wanted to move to 3 the answer was no. That even though they had serious liability with Seattle they were comfortable with the number.
It just goes to show that the number that they put out there isn’t necessarily the books “prediction” of what will actually happen. Keep in mind, especially in games like this one, that the favorite is only the favorite because THEY are telling you who’s the favorite. Maybe it seems like a trap because they’re hanging that “easy” 2.5 in front of your face. But that may just be because they’re very comfortable with the action that they’re taking on both or even just one side.
And the unspoken part, if the bookmakers are comfortable with taking heavy action on one side and NOT moving the number, are they counting on some help from their friends the refs? A timely call here, a noncall there, and suddenly the refs have massaged the outcome of the game.
Texans are 13-3 SU last 16 times they played Jags.
Lawrence hasn’t had a bad game yet.
seems like he due honestly
texans may have a bad record but they know this guy
Texans mL for me
Even if I lose making +EV plays eventually leads to winning more than you lose assuming you bet enough
Which I do
Honestly everyone on this site does
If you think it's a 'trap line', you really need to start paying attention to more than just a team's record.
First of all, anyone who watched Jacksonville last week and is still buying into them as a really good team, I dunno what you were looking at. They went 0% on TD in the red zone. 2 times they went 1st and goal and got zero points, once each half!
The Texans rank higher in yards per game on offense. They rank higher in yards allowed on defense. They are 2nd in the league in sacks and the Jags couldn't block Jalen Carter last week. Eagles don't have much pass rush besides him and he still wrecked their o line.
Not helping matters in that regard is that they lost their left tackle last week too.
And I'm sure you didn't miss this because the booth announcers must have mentioned it 80 times, they also lost their long snapper which apparently is the most important position in football.
And as has been mentioned, the Texans kind of own the Jags. Who seem to be firmly falling back to earth.
Their coach is actually an idiot if you watched his red zone calls last week. And does anyone really trust Trevor Lawrence? His decision making is still awful. Threw a bad pick last week. The sliding at the goal line with half the 4th quarter still left tells you the mental capacity he has.
Houston looks like a great teaser leg imo if you’re into that. And with the price increase on teasers this is a spot where you don’t need 6 points to get to 7/7.5.
Well I can't explain it any better than i just did. It's only a trap if you're an idiot. It's a totally fair line between 2 fairly even AFC South rivals where one has just gotten the bounces more than the other.
However, that may continue and Jags still win. They scraped it last week and this is their more important game. Hopefully they kept their best goal line plays for this one because holy crap that was bad.
Please don't ever look at lines and think a small line is 'a trap'. that's decades old lingo that newbs tend to latch onto because they don't see the big picture which is even bigger now (more games, more playoff spots)
The big picture is this: the games are not fixed - they are designed and engineered to keep you watching (ads). The league wants parity and games to be in the balance as long as possible. You're betting on games that are probably coin flips in the last 2 mins more than half the time. Look at the spreads today most are small. Most games are close for most of the game. This one probably will be too.
That's why any line under 3 i highly suggest moneylining the fav and taking the points with the dog depending who you like. Plenty of games each year are won by1 or 2 points, not every game winning FG is during a tie game, and we have coaches playing all kinds of funny stuff with 2 pt conversions outsmarting themselves more often than not.
And OF COURSE they are going to want the international games to be exciting. They're not, but they're at least close. Last week was decided in the final moments, was it not? Probably the least enjoyable down to the wire game ever. And actually that's why the games usually are close it's not great plays it's coaching ineptitude and players being idiots. The notre dame QB actually fumbled last night on a spike attempt. The pros are getting worse too because these uncoachable idiot college kids are the new stars. Look at Travis Hunter, he actually was targeted and burned by Philly last week with their 4th string WR. Totally overrated. Looking at TL and Stroud number 1 and 2 picks and I don't think either of them are guys you can have utmost confidence in.
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