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Some tech angles week 1

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Posted: #51

I went back and checked a third time.

A team with a regular season win total>=9

All teams BUT the Patriots 32-53 o/u

 

Patriots 7 OVERs, 0 UNDERs, 2 ties

 

Team regular season win total >=11

10-5-2 o/u (including the Patriots at 2-0-2)

 

Team regular season win total <6

9-15-1 o/u

 

Looks like the teams that are predicted to be very good, are...those >=11 RSWL teams have mean averaged 12 wins/season.

The crummy teams with RSWL<6 have mean averaged 5 wins.

 
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Posted: #52

A team who had a turnover margin that exceeded 10 for the prior season, meaning they committed 10 more turnovers than they forced last year.

 

How did those teams do the following season against their regular season wins line?

 

25 OVERs 18 UNDERs

Bengals, Chargers, Panthers, Giants, Bucs

 

Conversely, a team that forced 10 more turnovers than they had offensive turnovers last season...how did they do the following season?

24 OVERs, 19 UNDERS

Seahawks, Vikings, Saints, Patriots

 
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Posted: #53

A team that:

a)  Played in 3 or 4 playoff games last season.

b)  A home divisional favorite

c)  Won <14 games last season.

d)  Game numbers 1-13

e)  Sunday only games

HF and game number<14 and tpS(playoffs) > 2 and day = Sunday  and DIV and PRSW<14

19-44 ATS, 39-24 straight up, average line -7.5

 

AGAINST Titans, Chiefs, 49ers as home divisional favorites

 
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Posted: #54

Parameters:

a)  Home divisional favorite

b)  Made the playoffs the two previous seasons

c)  Their divisional opponent DID NOT make the playoffs two previous seasons

d)  game numbers 1-6

e) Sunday games only

HF and tpS(playoffs) > 0 and day = Sunday and game number < 7 and DIV and tppS(playoffs) > 0 and opS(playoffs) = 0 and oppS(playoffs) = 0

16-33 ATS, 32-17 straight up, average line -8.3

AGAINST Ravens, Chiefs, Saints, Titans, Patriots, Texans.......as a home divisional favorite when playing a team that didn't make playoffs the two previous seasons

 
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Posted: #55

Regular season wins.

A team:

a)  won >9 games last season

b)  won four or greater games last season than the season previous

12 OVERs, 26 UNDERs

Teams in this scenario for 2020?

Bills, 49ers, Ravens, Packers

 

 
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Posted: #56

Regular season wins.

A team that:

a)  two seasons ago, they played in three or four  playoff games

How have they done the two seasons later with their o/u regular season wins line?

8 OVERs and 16 UNDERs

They have mean averaged 3 divisional wins out of 6 games played

They have mean averaged 5 non-divisional wins out of 10 games played

Rams, Patriots

 

 
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Posted: #57

Word comes out that the Patriots have been fined over a million bucks for having a camera crew film a game inappropriately, too little too late for the NFL in dealing with the Patriots.

Seems that following the rules has been a difficult task for the Patriots...the NFL Super Bowl in 2001 was a travesty, and who knows how long they were doing it before it got noticed?

Bill Belichick and William Kraft have  lived a charmed existence, as the NFL did nothing when it became public notice that they were spying on other team's pre-game preparation, as the NFL basically said, "We can't give the public the idea that our game is tainted, can we?"

If the NFL was serious they should have stripped the Patriots of ALL their draft picks for two years afterwards.

And then, a few years later, there was deflategate, where the footballs used by the opposition in big games were deflated to lessen performance, also the Patriots were involved....there is evidence that Tom Brady was also involved.

Again, nothing much of anything was done in response to the cheating.

The latest film crew incident is the NFL's attempt at making themselves look like they are tough guys that enforce the rules,...however the horses have already escaped from the barn,...you had the chance when playoff games and Super Bowls were on the line to enforce rules and police the game.....you dropped the ball  both times.

You can basically shut down players' careers when they have an addiction or even make a mistake, but when it comes to owners wrecking the integrity of the game, you turn a blind eye.

It ain't right.

 
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Posted: #58

I have regular season wins data going back to 2012.

 

Team won 12 games their previous season, how did they do versus their regular season wins line (RSWL) THE NEXT SEASON?....Patriots, Chiefs  

9 OVERs          12 UNDERs

 

Team won 13 games their previous season.....Packers, Saints, 49ers

5 OVERs          9 UNDERs

 

Team won 11 games their previous season....Seahawks

16 OVERs         9 UNDERs

 

Team won 10 games their previous season...Vikings, Texans, Bills

11 OVERs         22 UNDERs

 
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Posted: #59

Going back to the 1989 season there have been 132 teams that had a negative turnover ratio of greater than 10 from the season prior, meaning they committed more than 10 turnovers than they created. 

tpS(TOM)>10 and season and playoffs=0 and team

How many of them made the playoffs the following season?

20 out of 132

tpS(TOM)>10 and season and playoffs=1 and team

None of those teams won the Super Bowl

Chargers, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, Bengals

 
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Posted: #60

 

In week one, when there has been a negative in turnover margin of at least 10 between the two teams' results from last year, those teams that had the worse turnover  ratio have been 94-64 ATS in week 1 in Sunday day games.

tpS(TOM) - opS(TOM) > 10  and game number = 1 and day = Sunday and snf = 0

Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Browns, Dolphins

This continues through September as this angle is 333-267 (55.5%) in September, before dissapating  into breakeven when October starts.  This holds true in Sunday day games ONLY, and in fact the worse turnover team from last year is 20-30 ATS on Sunday night and 50-50 in the other days of the week.

 

 
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Posted: #61

Playoffs?

A team that had the worse won/loss record last year between them and their present playoff opponent  in non-Super Bowl playoff games.

PRSW<o:PRSW and playoffs=1 and C and game number

60-102 ATS

Game number 17............33-63 ATS

Game number 18............24-32 ATS

Game number 19.............3-7 ATS

Since 2009 though, this has only been 38-45 ATS.

 

HOWEVER, in the Super Bowl, the team with the lesser record last season has been 12-7 ATS

PRSW<o:PRSW and playoffs=1 and not C

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