Some tech angles week 1

I tinkered with the last query in Post #76:

HD and tA(points) > 18.5 and game number < 16 and oA(o:points) > 21 and month < 12 and DIV

ATS:  28-55-3 (-3.90, 33.7%)

Once again, thank you for all of your time and effort, Indigo999.

Nice find Dogbite.....I am sure that tweaking certain parameters (or adding someone's own secret sauce parameter) that there can be a certain optimization of results in many of my initial queries. 

Play ON a team who present line is 10 points higher than their next game line in games 2 through 13 in Sunday day divisional  games.  (Non divisional games cover at only a 53.4% rate.)

Example:  If our play on team is +3 this week and they are favored by -8 their next game, this would qualify.

D and DIV and line-n:line>10 and 1<game number<14 and day=Sunday and snf=0

182-101-6 ATS, 64.3%, average line 8.1, 25% ROI

103-185-1 straight up, 35.8%, calculated moneyline of +359, 64% ROI

Indicated plays 2020

week 2 Chargers +6'

week 5 Giants +8'

week 9 Lions +7'

The reciprocal of the previous query.  Play AGAINST a divisional favorite where their next game line is 10 points greater than their present line.

152-243-6 ATS, 38.6%, average line -7.4,  19% ROI going AGAINST the favorite.

260-140 straight up, 65%, calculating a average moneyline of +333, ROI 51.6% playing underdog on moneyline.

F and DIV and line-n:line<-10 and snf=0 and day=Sunday and 16>game number>1

2020 indicated plays AGAINST

week 2      Packers -6',  Titans -11

week 5      Falcons -7,  Ravens -16',  Texans -9'

week 6      Giants -6,  Steelers -3'

week  7     Cowboys -8'

week 16    Chargers -1

In games 1-4 PLAY ON an away divisional dog that was worse last year in average scoring margin by at least 10 points/game than their week 1 opponent.

So, for example if team A was outscored by an average of 6 points/game last season, and their present divisional opponent, team B, outscored their opponents by an average of 5 points/game last season, that is an 11 points per game difference and team A would be a qualified play.  To qualify, our divisional away dog must be a +10 points or less underdog. 

game number<5 and AD and DIV and opS(margin)-tpS(margin)>160 and line<=10 and snf=0 and day!=Thursday and week<5

41-18 ATS (69.5%), 21-41 straight up (33.9%), average line +7.4

Cardinals, Dolphins, Browns

Line = 10 is only 2-3-1 ATS.

Line < 9.7 ---  ATS:  39-15-2 (3.44, 72.2%).  I use "line < 9.7" instead of  "line < 10" because it's less confusing for me.  I don't was "10" to mess up my thinking.

Tremendous indigo!!!

Thanks guys.

Oughta be enough info for people to win.....and of course I'll keep some tricks in my bag that won't see the light of day.

How do you search for new coaches in week 1?  I tried:

week=1 and coach != p:coach 

but it doesn’t give any results.

Hi Prop....I don't know the answer to that question....you may check with the sportsdatabase@googlegroups.com people to see if anyone can answer that for you.

I entered "coach" into the query text box and got a list of all the coaches and clicked on each one of them to get all of their games with each club, paying particular attention to their first game as head coach.  I only used their first game record if it was a game one of a season, so if they stepped in, in the middle of a season I didn't count that game, or the next season's game one either.  

That database goes back to 1989, so those coaches that started their careers before 1989, I had no way of accessing how they performed in that case.

The best category for teams with a new coach in week one is as away dogs (Cleveland), around 60% cover rate if I remember correctly.  Home divisional dogs with new coaches (Washington) hit around 42%.

Hey Indigo. Thanks for the explanation. I was able to find this query:

week=1 and p:coach!=coach?same_season_p=0

Hopefully that helps save you some time in the future.

Nice find, but for some reason I was unable to add more parameters such as "and AD".

If someone wanted to ask an expert in queries texts go to the sportsdatabase@googlegroups.com site and they should be able to put together the correct syntax for you.

I don't have my research results in front of me, but new coaches as away dogs in week 1 covered about 60% of the time.

Thanks.

Teams that haven't made the playoffs for at least three seasons....how have they done the following year?

As divisional dogs they do well in the first 5 games of the season, going 65-40 ATS, after that they are only 112-117 ATS.

Replace(season@team and playoffs = 1) + 3 <= season and game number<8 and D and site=away and DIV and game number<6

Those teams that have missed the playoffs the past three seasons have gone 48-63 to their regular season wins line.

Just as great as playing away dogs   we can fade teams that have missed the playoffs their past three seasons as favorites in the division early in the season.

Replace(season@team and playoffs = 1) + 3 <= season and game number<8 and AD, AF, HF, HD and DIV and game number<6

Teams that haven't made the playoffs for >=3 seasons playing a divisional rival,  now as

Away favorites 6-17 ATS

None indicated

Home favorites 18-27 ATS 

week 1  versus Lions

week 2  versus Browns 

week 5  versus Falcons

Home dogs      50-39 ATS

week 1  ON Jaguars and Redskins 

week 2  ON Dolphins 

Away dogs      65-40 ATS

week 1  ON Bucs, Cards, Jets, Browns, Dolphins

week 2  ON Lions, Jaguars

week 5  ON Raiders, Jaguars, Panthers, Giants, Panthers 

On the other hand, teams that didn't make the playoffs for the past three seasons that were favorites  before game 6 in non-divisional games have been 85-113 against the spread, 42,9%.

There  has been real advantage in playing ON those teams as dogs out of division.

My stats date back to 1994 and I only see a total of 8 instances over the last 25 seasons of a first time head coach being a week one road favorite.

Here is my question. If it covers 12 times and lost 15, What good is the stat? You have a 50-50 shot no matter which side you pick. Like throwing darts.

How am I thinking wrong?

If you had a stat that was 7-0 or 15-3.  Now I'm listening.

55% (15 out of 27) gives you approximately a 5% edge,....you do realize that Las Vegas has smaller edges than that in some of their table games, and they build palaces, right?

If you can't find anything useful here, then feel free not to come, and don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.

Coaching their first game as a hired NFL head coach and favored on the road in week one.

I included coaches who were former college coaches and also served as an interim head coach and I see a total of 10 instances over the past 30 years. I would like to see your results showing 27 instances on this.

JWD1984

An attitude already and the season hasn't started.

I'm just saying if you are a stat guy, there are better stats out there. Why post a 55% stat?

JWD

Be careful. Doubting his numbers could be dangerous. LOL

This is what I found searching first time NFL head coaches favored on the road in week one s/'90. 

1991 Eagles (R. Kotite) -1.5 @ Packers 20-3W ATS W

1992 Vikings (D. Green) -5.5 @ Packers 23-20W ATS L

1994 Cowboys (B. Switzer) -5 @ Steelers 26-9W  ATS W

1995 Oilers (J. Fisher) -3 @ Jaguars 10-3W  ATS W

1997 49ers (S. Mariucci) -6.5 @ Buccaneers 6-13L  ATS L

1999 Chiefs (G. Cunningham) -3 @ Bears 17-20L  ATS L

2004 Falcons (J. Mora Jr.) -3 @ SF 21-19W  ATS L

2007 Steelers (M. Tomlin) -6 @ Browns 34-7W  ATS W

2011 Titans (M. Munchak) -1 @ Jaguars 14-16L  ATS L

2019 Broncos (V. Fangio) -3 @ Raiders 16-24L  ATS L

I would be interested to see your results.

JWD1984

As far as the coaching history goes....I went into a database and went through every coach available and looked at their first game with that team as a head coach and only counted  if it was the team's first game of the season, going back to 1989, which took a few hours....I'm don't intend to  through the records again, as I have zero concern that someone might question what I researched.

If you doubt my figures, or my integrity, then you are welcome to spend your time going through those records as I did, AND perhaps you'd be interested in providing the forum in your own thread with some information that others could use.

However, for what reason would I falsify any data?

And with that, this conversation is over.