c) Their divisional opponent DID NOT make the playoffs two previous seasons
d) game numbers 1-6
e) Sunday games only
HF and tpS(playoffs) > 0 and day = Sunday and game number < 7 and DIV and tppS(playoffs) > 0 and opS(playoffs) = 0 and oppS(playoffs) = 0
16-33 ATS, 32-17 straight up, average line -8.3
AGAINST Ravens, Chiefs, Saints, Titans, Patriots, Texans.......as a home divisional favorite when playing a team that didn't make playoffs the two previous seasons
0
Parameters:
a) Home divisional favorite
b) Made the playoffs the two previous seasons
c) Their divisional opponent DID NOT make the playoffs two previous seasons
d) game numbers 1-6
e) Sunday games only
HF and tpS(playoffs) > 0 and day = Sunday and game number < 7 and DIV and tppS(playoffs) > 0 and opS(playoffs) = 0 and oppS(playoffs) = 0
16-33 ATS, 32-17 straight up, average line -8.3
AGAINST Ravens, Chiefs, Saints, Titans, Patriots, Texans.......as a home divisional favorite when playing a team that didn't make playoffs the two previous seasons
Word comes out that the Patriots have been fined over a million bucks for having a camera crew film a game inappropriately, too little too late for the NFL in dealing with the Patriots.
Seems that following the rules has been a difficult task for the Patriots...the NFL Super Bowl in 2001 was a travesty, and who knows how long they were doing it before it got noticed?
Bill Belichick and William Kraft have lived a charmed existence, as the NFL did nothing when it became public notice that they were spying on other team's pre-game preparation, as the NFL basically said, "We can't give the public the idea that our game is tainted, can we?"
If the NFL was serious they should have stripped the Patriots of ALL their draft picks for two years afterwards.
And then, a few years later, there was deflategate, where the footballs used by the opposition in big games were deflated to lessen performance, also the Patriots were involved....there is evidence that Tom Brady was also involved.
Again, nothing much of anything was done in response to the cheating.
The latest film crew incident is the NFL's attempt at making themselves look like they are tough guys that enforce the rules,...however the horses have already escaped from the barn,...you had the chance when playoff games and Super Bowls were on the line to enforce rules and police the game.....you dropped the ball both times.
You can basically shut down players' careers when they have an addiction or even make a mistake, but when it comes to owners wrecking the integrity of the game, you turn a blind eye.
It ain't right.
3
Word comes out that the Patriots have been fined over a million bucks for having a camera crew film a game inappropriately, too little too late for the NFL in dealing with the Patriots.
Seems that following the rules has been a difficult task for the Patriots...the NFL Super Bowl in 2001 was a travesty, and who knows how long they were doing it before it got noticed?
Bill Belichick and William Kraft have lived a charmed existence, as the NFL did nothing when it became public notice that they were spying on other team's pre-game preparation, as the NFL basically said, "We can't give the public the idea that our game is tainted, can we?"
If the NFL was serious they should have stripped the Patriots of ALL their draft picks for two years afterwards.
And then, a few years later, there was deflategate, where the footballs used by the opposition in big games were deflated to lessen performance, also the Patriots were involved....there is evidence that Tom Brady was also involved.
Again, nothing much of anything was done in response to the cheating.
The latest film crew incident is the NFL's attempt at making themselves look like they are tough guys that enforce the rules,...however the horses have already escaped from the barn,...you had the chance when playoff games and Super Bowls were on the line to enforce rules and police the game.....you dropped the ball both times.
You can basically shut down players' careers when they have an addiction or even make a mistake, but when it comes to owners wrecking the integrity of the game, you turn a blind eye.
Going back to the 1989 season there have been 132 teams that had a negative turnover ratio of greater than 10 from the season prior, meaning they committed more than 10 turnovers than they created.
tpS(TOM)>10 and season and playoffs=0 and team
How many of them made the playoffs the following season?
20 out of 132
tpS(TOM)>10 and season and playoffs=1 and team
None of those teams won the Super Bowl
Chargers, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, Bengals
2
Going back to the 1989 season there have been 132 teams that had a negative turnover ratio of greater than 10 from the season prior, meaning they committed more than 10 turnovers than they created.
tpS(TOM)>10 and season and playoffs=0 and team
How many of them made the playoffs the following season?
In week one, when there has been a negative in turnover margin of at least 10 between the two teams' results from last year, those teams that had the worse turnover ratio have been 94-64 ATS in week 1 in Sunday day games.
tpS(TOM) - opS(TOM) > 10 and game number = 1 and day = Sunday and snf = 0
Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Browns, Dolphins
This continues through September as this angle is 333-267 (55.5%) in September, before dissapating into breakeven when October starts. This holds true in Sunday day games ONLY, and in fact the worse turnover team from last year is 20-30 ATS on Sunday night and 50-50 in the other days of the week.
1
In week one, when there has been a negative in turnover margin of at least 10 between the two teams' results from last year, those teams that had the worse turnover ratio have been 94-64 ATS in week 1 in Sunday day games.
tpS(TOM) - opS(TOM) > 10 and game number = 1 and day = Sunday and snf = 0
Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Browns, Dolphins
This continues through September as this angle is 333-267 (55.5%) in September, before dissapating into breakeven when October starts. This holds true in Sunday day games ONLY, and in fact the worse turnover team from last year is 20-30 ATS on Sunday night and 50-50 in the other days of the week.
We'll look at teams that have the lesser win percentage, which in query language is tA(W)<oA(W).
As I've said before, Sundays are the best dog days, and Saturday games, though not wonderful has been breakeven,..... however it has been a low percentage play to take away dogs on Monday night or Thursday games.
Here is our query text for sportsdatabase.....AD and game number<16 and tA(W)<oA(W) and day and snf
Here are our results
Tuesday 1-0 ATS
Thursday 27-44 ATS
Monday 75-96 ATS
Saturday 23-21 ATS
Sunday night 81-70 ATS
Sunday day 1055-935 ATS
0
Let's do a study of away dogs.
We'll look at teams that have the lesser win percentage, which in query language is tA(W)<oA(W).
As I've said before, Sundays are the best dog days, and Saturday games, though not wonderful has been breakeven,..... however it has been a low percentage play to take away dogs on Monday night or Thursday games.
Here is our query text for sportsdatabase.....AD and game number<16 and tA(W)<oA(W) and day and snf
Because we're looking a finding a higher percentage of winners based on past history, we'll only consider Sunday and Saturday games.
How do we do when using how a team has done in their past 3 road games, considering only a team that has played at least 3 away games in this present season? Does it pay off to take teams that have done well, or poorly on the road in their 4th-8th road games based on their past three road games results?
The query text for the results of a team's prior three road games is this....tS(W@A, N=3) so this is the query text in its entirety.....
AD and game number<16 and tA(W)<oA(W) and day=Sunday, Saturday and tS(W@A, N=3)
Here are the results by the number of road games a team has won out of their last three road games and the day.
Road games won out of their last 3 Away dog record day
0 9-4 ATS Saturday
1 11-10 ATS Saturday
2 3-3 Saturday
3 0-4 Saturday
0 318-239 (57.1%) Sunday
1 360-323 (52.1%) Sunday
2 120-126 (48.8%) Sunday
3 10-19 (34.5%) Sunday
Regression rules the day. Those teams that have won 0 or 1 out of the past 3 road games as away dogs are profitable as away dogs, and those that have won 2 or 3 road games out of their past three road games in their present season have been a losing proposition.
Good fortune in your betting season.
1
Because we're looking a finding a higher percentage of winners based on past history, we'll only consider Sunday and Saturday games.
How do we do when using how a team has done in their past 3 road games, considering only a team that has played at least 3 away games in this present season? Does it pay off to take teams that have done well, or poorly on the road in their 4th-8th road games based on their past three road games results?
The query text for the results of a team's prior three road games is this....tS(W@A, N=3) so this is the query text in its entirety.....
AD and game number<16 and tA(W)<oA(W) and day=Sunday, Saturday and tS(W@A, N=3)
Here are the results by the number of road games a team has won out of their last three road games and the day.
Road games won out of their last 3 Away dog record day
0 9-4 ATS Saturday
1 11-10 ATS Saturday
2 3-3 Saturday
3 0-4 Saturday
0 318-239 (57.1%) Sunday
1 360-323 (52.1%) Sunday
2 120-126 (48.8%) Sunday
3 10-19 (34.5%) Sunday
Regression rules the day. Those teams that have won 0 or 1 out of the past 3 road games as away dogs are profitable as away dogs, and those that have won 2 or 3 road games out of their past three road games in their present season have been a losing proposition.
Now, the winning percentage of those teams that have won 1 out of the past three games has been about breakeven.
The greater value of the last two posts is eliminating losing propositions...filtering out those situations where your percentages are low....basically they are -EV wagers.
Most of your wealthy stock market investors will tell you the most important maxim is to NOT lose, before you think about winning, which is placing stop-losses to limit losses etc., in the markets.
We'll want to filter out playing away dogs on Thursday and Monday games, and we'll probably be filtering out teams from our consideration that have done well on the road their prior in-season three road games, or even possibly betting against them.
2
Now, the winning percentage of those teams that have won 1 out of the past three games has been about breakeven.
The greater value of the last two posts is eliminating losing propositions...filtering out those situations where your percentages are low....basically they are -EV wagers.
Most of your wealthy stock market investors will tell you the most important maxim is to NOT lose, before you think about winning, which is placing stop-losses to limit losses etc., in the markets.
We'll want to filter out playing away dogs on Thursday and Monday games, and we'll probably be filtering out teams from our consideration that have done well on the road their prior in-season three road games, or even possibly betting against them.
1) Team A has been a underdog their last two games
2) Team B, A's opponent, has also been a underdog their last two games
3) Team A is favored in a non-Thursday game
p:D and pp:D and op:D and opp:D and F and day!=Thursday and game number<16
site
Home 54-77 ATS, 41.2%
Away 147-208 ATS, 41.4%
16 possible games so far this season....obviously the lines will change and some that are indicated plays now will not be when that game becomes the present.
0
Parameters:
1) Team A has been a underdog their last two games
2) Team B, A's opponent, has also been a underdog their last two games
3) Team A is favored in a non-Thursday game
p:D and pp:D and op:D and opp:D and F and day!=Thursday and game number<16
site
Home 54-77 ATS, 41.2%
Away 147-208 ATS, 41.4%
16 possible games so far this season....obviously the lines will change and some that are indicated plays now will not be when that game becomes the present.
This one is a bit tricky to explain, so I'll use an example.....2019 Indy Colts, won on the road as 10 point dogs to KC...two games later they were a 5.5 point home favorite. If we subtract their two games ago line from their present line, the difference is 15.5 points, so the Colts would have qualified under our angle.
pp:line - line >10 and HF and day!=Thursday and 8<month<12
Parameters:
1) Was a dog two games ago and now are home favorites.
2) Their present line is is at least 10 points less than it was two games ago.
3) We delete December games and also Thursday games.
211-280 ATS
If our play AGAINST team WON as a dog two games ago, this has been 64-109 ATS
If out play AGAINST team LOST as a dog two games ago, this has been 146-171 ATS
Possible games this upcoming season...
VERSUS
week 3, Browns -9 and Cardinals -4
week 4, Bengals -3' and Rams -6'
week 5, Chiefs-11 and Texans -9'
week 6, Chargers -3', Colts -9' and Giants -6
week 9, Cardinals -4'
week 10, Steelers -10
week 11, Panthers -1
week 12, Patriots -7
0
This one is a bit tricky to explain, so I'll use an example.....2019 Indy Colts, won on the road as 10 point dogs to KC...two games later they were a 5.5 point home favorite. If we subtract their two games ago line from their present line, the difference is 15.5 points, so the Colts would have qualified under our angle.
pp:line - line >10 and HF and day!=Thursday and 8<month<12
Parameters:
1) Was a dog two games ago and now are home favorites.
2) Their present line is is at least 10 points less than it was two games ago.
3) We delete December games and also Thursday games.
211-280 ATS
If our play AGAINST team WON as a dog two games ago, this has been 64-109 ATS
If out play AGAINST team LOST as a dog two games ago, this has been 146-171 ATS
Since 1989, there have been 75 teams that covered more than 10 out of 16 regular season games ATS, of which 34 went to the playoffs.
Their mean average wins their next regular season was 9.
Their mean amount of covers the next season during the regular season was 8.
They covered 49% of their games the following season.
28 out of those 75 that covered >10/16 went to the playoffs that following season, and 4 won the Super Bowl.
Of the 34 that went to the playoffs the season previous, only 18 went to the playoffs the following season, 3 of which won the Super Bowl.....they mean averaged 9 wins, and covered a mean of 8 out of 16 games.
Saints and Chiefs
0
Since 1989, there have been 75 teams that covered more than 10 out of 16 regular season games ATS, of which 34 went to the playoffs.
Their mean average wins their next regular season was 9.
Their mean amount of covers the next season during the regular season was 8.
They covered 49% of their games the following season.
28 out of those 75 that covered >10/16 went to the playoffs that following season, and 4 won the Super Bowl.
Of the 34 that went to the playoffs the season previous, only 18 went to the playoffs the following season, 3 of which won the Super Bowl.....they mean averaged 9 wins, and covered a mean of 8 out of 16 games.
For choosing home dogs, teams that score 21 points in the game is pretty much the break even point.
Teams that score >21 points in the game have covered 78.7% of the time as home dogs.
points>21 and HD and game number<16
Teams that score <21 points have covered 32.1% of the time.
points<21 and HD and game number<16
That is not to say that teams averaging >21 points/game coming into the game will make you rich,...their record is 278-269 ATS, 50.8%.
That record, however is better than a home dog playing a team that has allowed >21 points/game, 341-368 ATS, 48.1%
Teams that average >21 points/game on offense playing a team allowing an average of >21 points/game are only 84-101 ATS as home dogs, 45.4%, and 54-74 ATS 42.2%, before the month of December.
HD and tA(points)>21 and game number<16 and oA(o:points)>21 and month<12
Add "and DIV" (divisional games) this moves to 16-28 ATS, 36.4%
1
For choosing home dogs, teams that score 21 points in the game is pretty much the break even point.
Teams that score >21 points in the game have covered 78.7% of the time as home dogs.
points>21 and HD and game number<16
Teams that score <21 points have covered 32.1% of the time.
points<21 and HD and game number<16
That is not to say that teams averaging >21 points/game coming into the game will make you rich,...their record is 278-269 ATS, 50.8%.
That record, however is better than a home dog playing a team that has allowed >21 points/game, 341-368 ATS, 48.1%
Teams that average >21 points/game on offense playing a team allowing an average of >21 points/game are only 84-101 ATS as home dogs, 45.4%, and 54-74 ATS 42.2%, before the month of December.
HD and tA(points)>21 and game number<16 and oA(o:points)>21 and month<12
Add "and DIV" (divisional games) this moves to 16-28 ATS, 36.4%
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