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Some tech angles week 1

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Posted: #1

I am putting these out to the general public....most of those that comment will be positive, although sometimes I get pretty surprised that some will give me some harsh admonitions that "systems don't work, technical angles are for suckers", etc., etc.   IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT, fade them and use them to your advantage and move on.   Just as there is a lot of different ways to make a million bucks, so are there many different ways to handicap....chose what works for you.

Will the season start on time?  Will a possible lessening of attendance affect the history of these,...we don't know.

Week 1 angles.

1)  Play ON a week 1  away dog that won 4, 5 or 6 regular season games last year....63-34 ATS.....Cardlnals, Dolphins and Browns  

Those teams are 25-12 ATS if the game is a divisional match-up

 

2)  We are looking at an week 1 away dog that finished last year with less wins than their week one opponent.

AD and game number=1 and PRSW-o:PRSW<0 (sportsdatabase or killersports.com)

Those teams have been 105-75 ATS

If our play ON team from the previous query won 4, 5, 6 or 7 games last year, this moves to 70-35 ATS

AD and game number=1 and 3<PRSW<8 and PRSW<o:PRSW

Divisional games are 29-16 ATS and non-divisional games have been 41-19 ATS

Away dogs of <7 points have been 44-15 ATS

ON Dolphins, Jets and Bucs

 

 

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3)  On the other hand teams that won more games than their week one opponent in the regular season last year and are week 1 away dogs have been 19-37 ATS if they won >7 games last season

AD and game number=1 and PRSW>o:PRSW and PRSW>7

AGAINST Bears, Packers and Titans

 

 

 
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4)  Another method of playing week one games is to calculate the average margin from the season previous and to go AGAINST the perceived advantage when there is greater than 6 point difference.

So to get the average points difference from last season, we do this (and this will also work from game 8 onwards when taking away dogs only).

team and season=2019 and playoffs=0

Home                               Away                       Calculated home team line

Vikings (+6.50)                Packers (+3.94)             -5.54

Broncos (-2.12)                Titans (+4.44)               +3.56        * ON Broncos if line is -2.5, or -3

Chiefs (+8.94)                 Texans (-.44)                -12.38

Ravens (+15.56)              Browns (-3.62)              -22.18        * Play on Browns

Giants (-6.88)                  Steelers (-.88)                +3

Falcons (-1.12)                Seahawks (.44)              -1.44

Saints (7.31)                    Bucs (.56)                     -9.75         Play on Bucs if line drops to 3.5

Redskins (-10.56)            Eagles  (1.94)                 +9.5

Rams (1.88)                    Cowboys (7.06)              +2.18

Raiders (-6.62)                Panthers (-8.12)              -1.5

Patriots (12.18)               Dolphins (-11.75)            -26.93     * Dolphins +6.5

Lions (-5.12)                   Bears (-1.12)                   +1

Jaguars (-6.06)                Colts (-.75)                     +2.31

49ers (10.56)                  Cardinals (-5.06)              -18.62   *Cardinals +8

Bengals (-8.81)               Chargers (-.50)                +5.31

Bills (3.44)                      Jets (-5.19)                      -11.63   ON Jets if line drops to 5.5                          

 

 
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5)  In the last 30 seasons, a regular season non-divisional away favorite that will be a home dog their next game have been 51-90 ATS, 6-11 ATS game 1s.....AGAINST Chargers.

 
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6)  A game 1 away divisional favorite that made the playoffs last season versus a team that didn't make the playoffs.

tpS(playoffs)>0 and AF and DIV and game number=1 and opS(playoffs)=0

5-12 ATS, 8-8 straight up.....VERSUS Eagles

 

7) A game 1 away non-divisional favorite that made the playoff last season versus a team that didn't make the playoffs.

tpS(playoffs)>0 and AF and not DIV and game number=1 and opS(playoffs)=0

18-11 ATS.....ON Seahawks

 

 

 
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Posted: #6

Love it! Thank you for posting!

 
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Posted: #7

I look at everything, that being said, week one is and always has been my test week. Some years I don't even play outside of a an office pool. Which isn't to say you cant win week one, I just like to know what I'm working with. But always looking for an edge, regardless of the week. Thx for ur input Indigo!

 
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Thanks guys....

In the last 30 years, a team with a coach, coaching his very first game as head man has been an away favorite 27 times.

They have covered 12 and lost ATS 15 times.....the Cowboys are in this situation in game 1. 

 
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Week 1 divisional away dogs

 

Won at least 4 away games last season, now game 1 divisional away dog.

tpS(W@A, N=8)>4 and AD and DIV and game number=1

4-14 ATS......AGAINST Bucs, Packers

 

Won less than 3 road games last season, now game 1 road divisional dog

tpS(W@A, N=8)<3 and AD and DIV and game number=1

26-14 ATS.....ON Jets, Dolphins and Browns

 
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Posted: #10

Week 1 away non-divisional favorites

The away favorite  week one, did not make the playoffs last season and won less than 4 road games last season.

tpS(W@A, N=8) <4 and AF and not DIV and game number = 1 and tpS(playoffs)=0 (using sportsdatabase.com)

9-16 ATS, 11-13 straight up....AGAINST Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers

 
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Posted: #11

A team's game numbers 1, 2 or 3, Sunday afternoon games only.

A home favorite who won 2 or less games at home last season.

tpS(W@H) <= 2.0 and HF and month = 9 and game number < 4 and day = Sunday and snf = 0

16-32 ATS....AGAINST:  

  1) Lions -1'       week 1 

  2) Bucs -8'        week 2

  3) Cardinals -3  week 3

  4) Chargers -6'  week 3

 

 
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Posted: #12

Looking hard at the bears/lions

winning money is better than earning it
 
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Posted: #13

in the last 5 years, 17 teams won at least 12 games and exceeded their regular season win total by 3 games or more.

How did they do the following season?

PRSWL-PRSW<-3 and team and season and playoffs=0 and PRSW>11

The median amount of wins for that team was 9 the following season.

Teams in that category this season.......49ers, Packers and Ravens

 

There have been 7 teams that have had a season win total of 9 of greater, and won 2 or less games than their regular season win line.

RSWL>=9 and PRSWL-PRSW>2 and team and season and playoffs=0

How did those teams do the following year?....four or those teams won 11 or more games the following year and 3 won 8 or less....Browns, Chargers

 

 
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Posted: #14

A regular season wins line of 9 or above...how have those teams  done?

They've gone OVER their regular season wins line 32 times and UNDER 47 times.

 

Season wins futures for the coming season...

1)  Ravens 11.5

2)  Chiefs 11.5

3)  Saints 10.5

4)  49ers 10.5

5)  Bucs 10

6) Cowboys 9.5

7) Eagles 9.5

8) Steelers 9.5

9) Seahawks 9.5

10) Bils 9

11) Patriots 9

12) Vikings 9

13) Packers 9

14) Colts 9

 

And, here's an interesting one to ponder....a team that had a regular season wins total of 9 or above the PREVIOUS season, has eclipsed that number the next season only 21 out 62 times.

 

 
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Posted: #15

Correction:  From post #814 directly above, I re-checked....

Teams that had a regular season win total the previous season of >=9, went OVER their regular season win total the next season, 27 out of 66 times (40.9%).

PRSWL>9 and team and season and playoffs=0 and RSWL

Sorry for the miscalculation.

 
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Teams with a season wins total of 11.5 or more have beaten the line 7 times, lost once and tied once.

team and season and playoffs=0 and RSWL>11 and RSWL

Chiefs, Ravens

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

A regular season wins line of 9 or above...how have those teams  done? They've gone OVER their regular season wins line 32 times and UNDER 47 times.   Season wins futures for the coming season... 1)  Ravens 11.5 2)  Chiefs 11.5 3)  Saints 10.5 4)  49ers 10.5 5)  Bucs 10 6) Cowboys 9.5 7) Eagles 9.5 8) Steelers 9.5 9) Seahawks 9.5 10) Bils 9 11) Patriots 9 12) Vikings 9 13) Packers 9 14) Colts 9   And, here's an interesting one to ponder....a team that had a regular season wins total of 9 or above the PREVIOUS season, has eclipsed that number the next season only 21 out 62 times.

good info.  I have been using this strategy for awhile.  The only team that consistently bucked this trend has been the patriots.  If you take the patriots out of the equation the percentage is skewed much more towards the under.   I have chiefs under  ravens under,  saints and 49ers under 11 (got them early) 

 

 
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I love seeing these trends. Where I live it's been a two-week war zone. Entire city streets looted and burned. Complete lawlessness with local police departments told to stand down. This kind of football analysis helps take my mind off the mess. I don't think I'll ever be more happy about a preview magazine than I will when Marc Lawrence's and Lindy's magazines go on sale. If only to act as a temporary distraction. Although, I can't really support the NFL anymore. Everything that brings humor, fun, joy, or even relief to life, the left destroys.

 
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Posted: #19

Lordb.....yes, I went back and the Patriots are something like 8-0 in going over their totals, so the actual percentage of overs is much less when you subtract the Patriots.  I'm not a futures guy, but if I played future wins o/u I'd take out the elite teams (Ravens and Chiefs) and the Belichicks and play UNDER on every other team with a win total of over or equal to 9.

Sorry to hear about the issues close by DocS....unfortunately, there will be 3-4 years of continued issues in the USA and another financial meltdown in approximately 6-7 years in the United States.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

I love seeing these trends. Where I live it's been a two-week war zone. Entire city streets looted and burned. Complete lawlessness with local police departments told to stand down. This kind of football analysis helps take my mind off the mess. I don't think I'll ever be more happy about a preview magazine than I will when Marc Lawrence's and Lindy's magazines go on sale. If only to act as a temporary distraction. Although, I can't really support the NFL anymore. Everything that brings humor, fun, joy, or even relief to life, the left destroys.

The "Left" meaning sum sort of extreme political agenda does not apply to "hoodlums" who, first of all couldn't even spell "politics," and are point blank simply "criminals" who are just taking advantage of the protests and mob mentality that comes with it. 

Yes, anything positive is welcome, sports has always been my outlet, although playing is what I'd rather be doing. Best of luck to you and stay safe!

 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

I love seeing these trends. Where I live it's been a two-week war zone. Entire city streets looted and burned. Complete lawlessness with local police departments told to stand down. This kind of football analysis helps take my mind off the mess. I don't think I'll ever be more happy about a preview magazine than I will when Marc Lawrence's and Lindy's magazines go on sale. If only to act as a temporary distraction. Although, I can't really support the NFL anymore. Everything that brings humor, fun, joy, or even relief to life, the left destroys.

Stay safe.

 
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Posted: #22

Alright, here's another.

Criteria:

1)  Team did not make playoffs last season

2)  Is a game number 1 underdog

3)  Had a worse regular season record last season than their week 1 opponent

Away dog division   41-28 ATS, 19-54 straight up, average line +6.5......Jets, Browns, Bucs, Cards, Dolphins

Away dog non-div   56-36 ATS, 33-60 straight up, average line +6.6

Home dog not-div   34-35 ATS, 20-49 straight up, average line +4.1.......Bengals, Falcons, Panthers, Giants

Home dog division   31-25 ATS, 21-34 straight up, average line +4.........Jaguars, Redskins  

 

 
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If we exclude Monday night, teams that made the playoffs last season and are an away underdog have been 12-33 ATS in game 1s.

game number = 1 and tpS(playoffs)>0 and D and day!=Monday and site

AGAINST Texans, Packers

 

Teams that made the playoffs last season and are a game 1 underdog have been 7-3 ATS.

game number = 1 and tpS(playoffs)>0 and D and day=Monday

Texans

 
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If we exclude Monday night, teams that made the playoffs last season and are an away underdog have been 12-33 ATS in game 1s.

game number = 1 and tpS(playoffs)>0 and D and day!=Monday and site=away

AGAINST Texans, Packers  

 

 

Teams that made the playoffs last season and are a game 1 underdog on Monday night have been 7-3 ATS.

game number = 1 and tpS(playoffs)>0 and D and day=Monday

Texans

 
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Posted: #25

A home dog where neither team involved made the playoffs last season

game number = 1 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)=0 and HD

47-40 ATS     30-57 o/u ................Bengals, Rams, Giants, Panthers, Giants

If the total is >40 this moves to 10-28 o/u (-4.38)

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