Some tech angles week 1

This is what I found searching first time NFL head coaches favored on the road in week one s/'90. 

1991 Eagles (R. Kotite) -1.5 @ Packers 20-3W ATS W

1992 Vikings (D. Green) -5.5 @ Packers 23-20W ATS L

1994 Cowboys (B. Switzer) -5 @ Steelers 26-9W  ATS W

1995 Oilers (J. Fisher) -3 @ Jaguars 10-3W  ATS W

1997 49ers (S. Mariucci) -6.5 @ Buccaneers 6-13L  ATS L

1999 Chiefs (G. Cunningham) -3 @ Bears 17-20L  ATS L

2004 Falcons (J. Mora Jr.) -3 @ SF 21-19W  ATS L

2007 Steelers (M. Tomlin) -6 @ Browns 34-7W  ATS W

2011 Titans (M. Munchak) -1 @ Jaguars 14-16L  ATS L

2019 Broncos (V. Fangio) -3 @ Raiders 16-24L  ATS L

I never said anything about your integrity. All I said was I would be interested to see your results since the numbers are so far off. Why didn't you just post the results instead of going on and on???

Indigo - thanks for all this - I have some ideas PM me if you like. For each team mentioned I put a + for bet one and a - for bet against. I think these are all week one but I was busy so may be a few errors.

Cardinals + + - + + + + Bet
Dolphins + + + + + + + Bet
Browns + + + + + + Bet
Jets + + + + + Bet
Bucs + + + + + Bet
Bears -
Packers - - - -
Titans - - -
Broncos +
Bucs + - -
Chargers - - - + -
Philly -
Wash + + + + Bet
Seattle +
Dallas - -
Raiders - -
Steelers -
Lions - + -
Houston - + - - -
Chiefs - -
Niners -
Balt -
Saints -
Pats -
Falcons +
Panthers +
JAGS +

team=Falcons and STD and week=1 and H and D

I have a week 1 query that I would rather not disclose as it is a variation of Indigo999's.  The results:

ATS:  30-10-1 (4.66, 75.0%) - it likes AZ and CLV.

I entered this into the sportsdatabase query box.

coach and team

Gives at least 100 coaches with their ATS and W/L records for the various teams they coached.

I went through each coach by hand, and it took 3 hours of my life that I'll never get back to do so, .  You guys are welcome to do the same.  

I didn't write down each coach and their game one record, but notated the situation of  HF, HD, AF and AD, and whether it was a divisional game or not.

I have it on paper somewhere, but because it didn't produce anything noteworthy, I can't be bothered looking for it, or posting it.

Being an away dog, first game with his team coach produced approximately a 60% cover rate....which fits the Browns week one.

Being a first game head coach with his present team as a home divisional dog (Washington) produced about a 44% cover rate.

For some reason you felt it was important to post this result which I completely disagree with. You apparently have gone back and searched it again two times but won't post your findings. 

One of the parameters you listed was coaching "his very first game" as head man. You do realize this is not the first game Mike McCarthy will be coaching as the head man right? McCarthy, having been the coach of the Packers from 2006-week 13, 2018, being a road favorite as the Cowboys new head coach is not the same as Vic Fangio coaching "his very first game" and being a week one road favorite last season.

Thanks for this thread, there is a lot of useful information.  I had difficulty figuring out how you were getting your # until I realized that you were adding 3.0 to the home team.  So once you determine your overlay, you subtract it from the spread and if there is a difference of 6 you have a play.  In the case of Denver (-2.13) vs Tennessee (4.44) the overlay is 3.56 to Tennessee when you factor in home field advantage of 3.  Wouldn't Tennessee be the play if Denver was a 2.5 or 3 point favorite?  You have *Bronco's listed as the play.

You have a TON of useful info on this thread, Indigo. Just a ton. Thanks for posting it all.

I'm wondering what effect, if any, the scamdemic will have in Week One. Will we see less false starts due to less crowd noise? Will we see refs calling penalties fairly instead of being intimidated by home fans? Will we see some lopsided scores with better prepared coaching staffs running up the score vs. staffs that are less prepared? Will the league's new travel rules severely hamper the Titans in Week One? It will be interesting.

Best of luck to you next week!

My concerns for betting on Arizona are Teams that lost the super bowl previous season and are home in week one are 11-6 SU & 9-8 ATS since 84. San Francisco just came off of losing and is playing at home.  Truth is we dont know how that will play out since there are no fans. If I had to say its San Francisco or no play.

jaho......we would theoretically go with the team having the disadvantage from last year of at least 6 points...and you are right, I am adding 3 points to the home team, so yes because the Titans performed better than the  Broncos last year, by 6.56 points/per game, I am giving the Broncos 3 points for home field, hence I'd make their line on LAST YEAR'S results at +3.56 (+6.56 - 3 points for home field)  for the Broncos in Denver versus the Titans based on the points differential between the two teams.  If the Broncos were to be favored where there is a difference between the calculated line of +3.56 and the week 1 line of >6 points we'd have an indicated play on Broncos at -2.5 (or if they were -3, -3.5, etc.).  It is looking probable that we won't find the Broncos get to -2.5 or -3, but obviously that is yet to be determined.

Alternatively we'd have an indicator on the  Titans if the Broncos were +10 or more. 

Is that judicious giving the home field advantage of 3 points considering there's no fans?

It's all in an inexact science, even less so this season with no fans and traditional protocol of exhibition games being cancelled, etc.

Thanks for those that expressed appreciation for what I've put out there, it was a labour of love with idea of helping those to have a more successful season, and it also benefited me to get it all written down in black and white.

Those that wish to can plug in the formulas I've put on the thread which is a 15 second exercise to see the results in black and white or when the situation dictates get a pen and paper out and do it by hand as I did for the coaches data. 

Is the data valid?  The better question would be "is the data valid in your realm of thinking?"  For many, it won't be, as we come from a myriad of perceptual realities.  I actually had a covers' employee blast me in a thread on college football that having a formula was not the way to go....three straight successful seasons later, I believe that has worked for me.  Him?  He probably still thinks that way, and who really cares?

Embrace that not everyone will think like you, or me.  Is a coach coaching his first game as a head coach in the league different than coaching a second team in his first game with that team like Mike McCarthy is with Dallas?

It might be different for you, you decide, but don't decide for me.

Good fortune this season, as I believe THIS  will be the times that we'll always remember, love those that come into your little world and forgive those that don't deserve it.

Finally, I have one further tech angles and, and week 1 plays.

Divisional away dogs that didn't make the playoffs last season against a team that did have been 17-4 against the spread.

AD and DIV and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0 and week=1

Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, Bucs

And finally, the creme de la creme query.

We are taking a team, team A that;

a)  did not win their game 1 last season

b)  are divisional game 1 underdogs this season, home OR away

c)  did not make the playoffs last season

d)  versus an opponent, team B that did make the playoffs last season

e)  team B  won their game one game a season ago

Those team As have been 13-0 ATS, covering by an average of 9 points/game  and winning outright 9 out of 13 times.

The query text is this for sportsdatabase is this....

D and DIV and week=1 and tpS(W@game number=1)=0 and opS(W@game number=1)=1

Jets, Dolphins, Redskins, Browns, Bucs, Cardinals

9 out of the 13 teams in the history were home divisional underdogs, they went 6-2-1 straight up, covering by an average of 7.83 points/game.

4 of them were away divisional underdogs and they went 3-1 straight up, covering by an average of 11.88 points/game.

Week 1 plays.

1)  Cardinals +7

If we just look at championship runners-up in almost every sport, they have a very difficult time the next season, if they do make the playoffs...the Rams last season, the Boston Bruins this season, the Sun of the WNBA, the Astros of MLB, the Warriors of the NBA.  It is almost like the kiss of death.  We're taking an up and coming team in the Cardinals that will have a potent offense this season. They gave the 49ers trouble last season when the 49ers were a dominant team.  Because I have no cajones I didn't take the moneyline, but they could win in an upset.

2)  Browns +7'

Everything went the Ravens' way last season, and Jackson had a breakout season.  The Ravens will be a mission team this season, as the Chiefs were the season before, when they should have beaten the Patriots in the conference finals and as is often the case in Patriots games, some inexplicable things happened to deny them a Super Bowl birth.  Another example of this was quite a few years ago when the Colts with Manning had a dominant season only to lose to the Steelers when Big Ben made a shoestring tackle on Bob Sanders who looked likely to return a fumble for a game winning score.  The Colts were much less dominant the next season, but in the playoffs, everything went their way, including getting to play the Bears in the Superbowl the next season who had no quarterback.  Ravens will be good this season, but not dominant, but come playoff time, the sporting gods will shine on them.

Browns super underachieved last season and now have a very smart new  coach, with a ton of talented players....THIS will be the season where they ascend, and they will make the playoffs.

3)  Bucs +3'

Well, I would say that both Brady and Belichick will want to prove that all those superbowl wins were mainly from their efforts and we got a mad scientist type coach in Arians whose offense  is gonna be prolific.  If Mr. Brady can figure out how not to throw the ball to the other team like his predecessor they'll automatically be 3 games better than they were last season.

Saints will regress this season, as multiple first place finishes will put a target on their back...I expect their divisional record against the spread to be dismal this season, and possibly Drew Brees' swan song to not be pretty, as they often are for even the best of quarterbacks at the end of their careers.

4)  Redskins +6 -113

Redskins part of the 13-0 ATS angle in the box above this one.

The Redskins are a prototypical example of how being a bad person who is successful in one business shouldn't expect that he can do a seperate business in which he has no expertise....example one, Bill Gates, and example two Daniel Snyder.  If he can keep his ass out of the football side of his business, it is looking like he has hired good quality people that have expertise and are good people and good leaders.  It looks like all the of the bad apples are out of the Redskins' organization, but of course, you have still have  a leader that was complicit in a culture of degrading others and hired others that did the same.

The Turners have done well as quarterback whisperers, and I expect the offense to be at least average this season.  The defense has nowhere to go but up and the head coach is defensive minded who has lead a past team to the superbowl.

As far as the Eagles go, I am not enamoured with their quarterback, and they have injuries to their receiver corps, a running back and offensive line.  The Redskins had a miracle non-cover against them last season when Washington was abysmal...I expect them to do well in their first game of the season.

Those plays are locked in....sitting on the fence are three games.  Those teams all have very good historical data to back them up and I will see if I wish to play them closer to game time.

You couldn't pay me to take the Jets in this spot. 

Sitting on the fence games.

a) Jets +.  I am not a Jets fan,...the situation they are in is very, very good, but Adam Gase teams never have the "it" factor, and his quarterback is not a leader nor does he have a very high football IQ.  And, of course the obvious point is, the two most important people on the football field for a team is their head coach and the quarterback.  Other than that they've lost their two best defensive players and are playing an elite defensive team.

On the opposite side of the coin, the Bills have a fullback playing quarterback...the guy can't pass, and in today's football you aren't going to win anything important if you can't.

That will show up more on the road than at home  for the Bills this season, and I expect that they'll take a long hard look at replacing Josh Allen next season. Teams that have had successful teams the season prior that have averaged a low amount of points on offense almost always regress the next season, so I'll watch the Bills this season with interest.

b)  Dolphins +.  Probably headed towards +7 here.  The Dolphins are in similar situation to the Jets, BUT do I really want to go against Belichick in a prove-it season?,...with revenge?, with the whole offseason to prepare?, with a prove-it season quarterback playing his first game?  I don't care if he got a couple of janitors to play defense for him this season, they will be a tough out this season, and I'm probably passing on the Dolphins.

c)  Vikings -.  We have the best home coach in pro football history against the spread in Mike Zimmer, with his team playing a divisional rival in double revenge.  Their opponent massively overachieved last season, with stats that said they should have won 9 or 10 games.  I expect the Packers to regress into the sunset this season, as Mister Rodgers is now an average quarterback, along with some very questionable decisions personnel-wise in the off=season which will lead to a dearth of big plays this season on offense for the Packers.

There is one very favorable situation on the Packers,  the subset of which is not very powerful.  Despite the defensive losses by the Vikings last season, you could put a couple of nobodies at cornerback for them this season and they'd be as good as what their cornerbacks were last season.  

This game if I can get -2', I'll more than likely pull the trigger.  People are liking the Packers, which could drive the price down.

Ingido , this still keeps your teams there

AD and DIV and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0 and week=1 and line>3

Thanks Hoodman....good fortune.

4-1-1

D and DIV and week=1 and tpS(W@game number=1)=0 and opS(W@game number=1)=1 and R and line>5 and line<7

7-1-1 just in case the line goes to 7

D and DIV and week=1 and tpS(W@game number=1)=0 and opS(W@game number=1)=1 and R and line>5 and line<8

Adding:

5)  Vikings -2'

Teams that won 13 games the season prior (Packers) are only 1-8 ATS as divisional away dogs in the first 3 weeks of the season, losing by an average of 11 points/game.  

Away divisional dogs that won the last two games versus their present  opponent (Packers) have been 5-12 ATS in that game in the first 10 games of the season.

Other plays so far...

1)  Cardinals +7

2)  Bucs +3'

3)  Browns +7'

4)  Redskins +6, -113

Correction...teams that won the last two games against a divisional rival have been 90-101 ATS the first 10 games of the season.

However, if the team in that situation that won 13 games last season have been 5-12 ATS, which is applicable to the Packers/Vikings.

The Bears also beat the Lions twice last season, but teams that won less than 9 games are 36-36 ATS in the first 10 games of the season in that scenario, so no advantage to either team.

I had to the choice of taking both the Jets and the Dolphins at +6.5 at +108 or at +7 -108....which is the percentage move?

For favorites that team wins by  7 points exactly, 5% of the time in the regular season, and 4% of the time week 1.  The difference between the prices of 6.5 or 7 is 16%, so one is paying a premium by getting the extra half point.  I took the 6.5 at plus money.  A factor in my decision process is that if the game goes to overtime, a team scoring a touchdown doesn't kick the extra point.

Those two were lesser plays than the first four games I played.

We'll call the first four  1.5 star plays and the last two (Jets, Dolphins) 1 star plays.

1)  Cardinals +7

2)  Bucs +3' ,-107 (half unit) and Bucs +3, +104 (half unit)

3)  Washington +6, -113

4)  Browns +7'

5)  Jets +6'

6)  Dolphins +6'

Good fortune this season.

What do you rank the Vikings play?

Thanks for all the hard work 

Hey BN, Ja, a little brain cramp there....I'll relist my plays, first 5 are all for 1.5 units, and last two for 1 unit.

1)  Cardinals +7

2)  Bucs +3/3'

3)  Vikings -2'

4)  Washington +6

5)  Browns +7'

6)  Jets +6'

7)  Dolphins +6'

The linemakers are testing the waters too. There can be value in week 1. BOL