Sharps Report Week 9

HOUSTON AT MINNESOTA: Not much interest here. There was a tick up from -4 to -4.5 for the Vikings. Four's not exactly a critical number. The people who are playing the game like the Vikings. This is largely a pass for the sharps at this point. Nothing happening on the total yet. And, in a dome, it's not like anyone is waiting for a weather report. There may be some dog interest if the public bets the line up to Minnesota -6 on game day. This is a spot where there's no reason to bet early if you like Houston. So, Minnesota money acted early. Houston money, if it exists, is still to come. I'm not sensing much interest in this game from sharps at the moment.

JACKSONVILLE AT CINCINNATI: Some sentiment for the home underdog and the Under. But the moves have just been a half a point in those directions so far. Cincinnati looked so bad last week that it's very tough to invest heavily in them at any price. Of course, Jacksonville doesn't inspire confidence as a big road favorite either. The spread of Jacksonville -7.5 or -8 will create some "basic strategy" teaser options for sharps. They like crossing the 7 and the 3 when they move the line on two-team teasers. They have become wary of road favorites this year though. Things haven't exploded for this strategy in 2008 the way they did in 2007. Another game with limited sharp action unless something happens from the public over the weekend.

TAMPA BAY AND KANSAS CITY: Slight interest again in the dog and Under with a pricey road favorite. These just aren't the games that are in the wheelhouse of most sharps. Well, they like taking eight points with GOOD underdogs! The bottom of the barrel teams are so bad this year that there just isn't much enthusiasm for what used to be "value" spots unless the lines are double digits. Some guys are just playing blanket double digit dogs in the NFL this year and cleaning up. Neither Cincinnati nor Kansas City are that high yet. If the public bets the favorites up, sharps will step in on game day. Far from a sure thing. Kansas City is also in the teaser window if you're keeping track of those.

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Cleveland opened -2.5 and got bet down immediately to -1.5. That may not sound like much, but it's actually a sign of very strong sentiment on the underdog. A line of -2.5 is right near the field goal. If ANYBODY liked the Browns, it would have shot to -3 immediately. It shot the other way. So, the sharps like Baltimore to win this game straight up, and were happy to take any points. Note also that the Ravens are in the teaser window as a dog going up. You can move them up over the 3 and the 7 in two-team teasers at the current price. You know that's happening if the sharps like Baltimore to begin with. Sportsbooks haven't been hurt yet by teasers in 2008. This will be a Sunday (and Monday) they have to sweat.

NY JETS AT BUFFALO: Surprisingly little action here considering how many transplanted New Yorkers there are in the area. Buffalo is -5.5 and 42. I have seen some Under money. I think this is a game where people are waiting for a weather report. It would be easy to love the Under if there's any wind or rain. If conditions are great, then Brett Favre's passing potential would discourage Under action. The sharps generally like underdogs in divisional rivalries. My read is that they're waiting to see if the public bets the line up to -6 or higher. Then they'd come in on the Jets. Since the public likes betting on Favre, that may not happen. Some games the sharps pass because they're just not interested. Others they pass early because they're waiting. I think this one's a "waiting" game.

ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: Big move here on the Under. It's the first big move we've had to talk about! The total opened at 50, but is down to 48 as I write this. Sharps have been impressed with the St. Louis defense the past few weeks. They've shown well on that side of the ball against Washington, Dallas, and New England since theie bye. That also inspired some St. Louis money at +3. I'm now seeing increased juice in places if you want to take the dog. You can have Arizona -3 at even money instead of 11/10 in other words. Could St. Louis be the only serious threat to Arizona in the NFC West? Who would have thought we'd be asking that question a few weeks ago?

DETROIT AT CHICAGO: We had a one-point move to the Under from 43 down to 42. This game has a double digit spread, so many guys will be on Detroit come game day. Many are already on now at +12.5. Others are waiting to see if they can get a +13 after the public starts to bet. Not that many games land on 12. So, it's worth it in their mind to wait and see if public money comes in on the favorite. If not and the line goes down, they lose a half point that doesn't matter so much anyway. Sharps aren't laying double digits this year (they hardly ever do anyway). So, it's Lions or pass in this one from their perspective. If weather becomes an issue here or anywhere else in the Northern cities, you'll see some Under money on game day.

GREEN BAY AT TENNESSEE: Here's another total that's fallen two points. It opened at 42.5, but is down to 40.5 as I write this. I think we have another "waiting" game here. Sharps are looking to take the dog because the favorite has a short preparation week after a big Monday Night win. The public is prone to bet favorites, particularly those who just won on TV! I think the sharps are lying in wait here hoping for something as good as +6 on Sunday. If that doesn't happen, they'll take what they can get before kickoff. There's no reason to act now if you like the Packers. I'm not sensing that there's anyone who wants to lay the points with the Titans, or the line would have already moved up.

MIAMI AT DENVER: We saw a huge jump on the Over right out of the gate. The opener was 47, and we're seeing 50 in places now. It's been a good year for the totals guys so that's a move you have to respect. Denver's defense sure has been bad this year. Miami has played high scoring games away from home too. I'm far from a totals specialist, but I can see the thinking there. Miami got bet at +3.5 on the opener. We're seeing Denver -3 at increased juice (12/10 or -12.5/10) right now. The public make back the Broncos at that price. If the line goes back up to 3.5 though, the sharps would come right back on the Dolphins. The expectation here from the Wise Guys is for a close high scoring game.

ATLANTA AT OAKLAND: The Over got hit hard here, moving up from 39 to 41. Oakland's offense has looked very bad recently, so I'm not sure what the totals guys are thinking there. I'm not saying they're wrong. I'm just saying the move can't be because of the Raiders offense! There's been some action on Oakland +3, but not so much that you could call it a sharp play. Can't see much interest unless the public bets the line off a field goal one way or the other. I'd have to say this is one of the quietest weeks we've seen so far from the sharps. With the ugly games, and the "waiting" games, there's a ton of money that just isn't in action yet.

DALLAS AT NY GIANTS: Early sharp action was on the favorite at -7.5. That's a huge move because it's near a critical number. If anyone liked the underdog, they'd take the hook without batting an eyelash. Money came in the other way, meaning strong sentiment on the favorite. Those betting think the line should be about -10 in other words. How could they think that about a marquee game? The Dallas offense has looked so bad without Tony Romo...and the offensive line is struggling so badly, that they just can't see the Cowboys playing well against this pass rush. Note also that the Giants are sitting in the teaser window, providing plenty of options for basic strategy users this week.

PHILADELPHIA AT SEATTLE: Strong move on the Under here, as the opener of 44.5 has dropped to 42.5. At least the totals guys will have something to root for this weekend. We've seen a few big totals moves, hardly anything of interest on team sides. Note that not much has happened on this particular game line either. The sharps don't like laying points on the road. Many of the home dogs are so bad, or injured, that you can't invest seriously in them at this point either. There's a threshold in the power ratings that some guys won't go below, even though they like taking home underdogs in general. They're more likely to take a .500 type team as a home dog against a league power than they are a 2-14 type team as a home dog against anyone.

NEW ENGLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Early sentiment for the dog and Under at lines of +6.5 and 45. We're now seeing +6 and 44. That's actually a small total move based on others that have been bet. The drop from 6.5 to 6 is bigger than it seems because it's so close to the seven. If the sharps thought the public was going to bet the Colts, they would have waited for a possible +7. The fact that they took +6.5 right away tells you they like the Pats, and aren't expecting any gift points from the public. I know some guys who are still pretty high on the Pats even though they've dropped so much in power ratings from last year. This is likely to be a popular sharp underdog Sunday night.

PITTSBURGH AT WASHINGTON: Another two point drop on a total, as 38 moved down to 36 fairly quickly. Washington has played very conservatively this year, with a strong defense keeping games from getting out of hand. This move makes a lot of sense to me. Pittsburgh has already played low scoring games with the NY Giants and Philadelphia from this division too. Not much yet happening on the team side. I'm sensing that guys want the dog with as many points as possible. That might not be much. If the sharps liked the favorite, they'd have stepped in at less than a field goal. That didn't happen, which suggests another "waiting" game with underdog sentiment. We'll have to wait and see what the public does on Monday. You can usually count on squares to bet cheap home teams on Monday nights. Note that Pittsburgh is in the teaser window. Many sharps will include the Steelers in teaser round robins then buy back some on the Skins and shoot for a middle if things go well Sunday.