I don't dispute or discredit your methodology but KC will have to show me with my own eyes today. I am the doubting Thomas on this one. Enjoyed your contributions and pondering your results throughout the year.
that's why doing the research is so important, I've seen it already in all the research over many years, that's what gives me the confidence, sometimes bob, the best bets are the hardest ones to see.................. ........ by the time you see it, is too late.
BOL bob this weekend ................................
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Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:
I don't dispute or discredit your methodology but KC will have to show me with my own eyes today. I am the doubting Thomas on this one. Enjoyed your contributions and pondering your results throughout the year.
that's why doing the research is so important, I've seen it already in all the research over many years, that's what gives me the confidence, sometimes bob, the best bets are the hardest ones to see.................. ........ by the time you see it, is too late.
BOL bob this weekend ................................
I do research, just not your style of research. One fast fact is that the KC D has given up more TDs than 22 other teams in the regular season. I don't trust that Chiefs' secondary and the 4th go around Burrow might have his way with them. Familiarity in this case can breed a blowout too.
Anyone who promotes any form of censorship is an enemy of human freedom. Free America!!!
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@theclaw
I do research, just not your style of research. One fast fact is that the KC D has given up more TDs than 22 other teams in the regular season. I don't trust that Chiefs' secondary and the 4th go around Burrow might have his way with them. Familiarity in this case can breed a blowout too.
@theclaw I do research, just not your style of research. One fast fact is that the KC D has given up more TDs than 22 other teams in the regular season. I don't trust that Chiefs' secondary and the 4th go around Burrow might have his way with them. Familiarity in this case can breed a blowout too.
I think you missed my point. I've done the research on my info, I know it produces winners. Have you researched the past and found that the info you just posted produces winners over time ?
That info you posted, you are quessing it works.
That's why I have so much confidence KC is the right play, I can believe in the info.
One example of what I am trying to say is, you say familiarity in this case can breed a blowout
Do you have any evidence of this ? Any past games and how many times has that info win and how many times has it lost ? What is the ATS record over history?
If you don't have that you are doing nothing more then quessing .
My info is not quessing, over time you are better off backing a team playing like KC, not Bengals
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Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:
@theclaw I do research, just not your style of research. One fast fact is that the KC D has given up more TDs than 22 other teams in the regular season. I don't trust that Chiefs' secondary and the 4th go around Burrow might have his way with them. Familiarity in this case can breed a blowout too.
I think you missed my point. I've done the research on my info, I know it produces winners. Have you researched the past and found that the info you just posted produces winners over time ?
That info you posted, you are quessing it works.
That's why I have so much confidence KC is the right play, I can believe in the info.
One example of what I am trying to say is, you say familiarity in this case can breed a blowout
Do you have any evidence of this ? Any past games and how many times has that info win and how many times has it lost ? What is the ATS record over history?
If you don't have that you are doing nothing more then quessing .
My info is not quessing, over time you are better off backing a team playing like KC, not Bengals
Nice weekend for KC backers Eagles left over points vs. Chiefs leftover points difference I'm going assume leans strongly for KC in that metric of yours??
Eagles about 10, KC with many over 30, but remember, this method does not tell us who will win , only how many pts if they do win.
method does not favor the team with most pts left.
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Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
Nice weekend for KC backers Eagles left over points vs. Chiefs leftover points difference I'm going assume leans strongly for KC in that metric of yours??
Eagles about 10, KC with many over 30, but remember, this method does not tell us who will win , only how many pts if they do win.
method does not favor the team with most pts left.
Do we have an update (or can someone find it) on the actual W/L record of the Bator Rule?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Bator Rule says to bet against any team that scores 30+ points and allows 10 or less in 2 consecutive weeks. The Eagles have done this in their two playoff games.
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@theclaw
Do we have an update (or can someone find it) on the actual W/L record of the Bator Rule?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Bator Rule says to bet against any team that scores 30+ points and allows 10 or less in 2 consecutive weeks. The Eagles have done this in their two playoff games.
According to PR I KC out-played Bengals and should of won by 11.09 pts not 3. Don't be fooled by that score. KC was held to FG's instead of getting TD's and with a 7 pt lead and driving into Bengals territory and a chance to go up 2 scores I think at start of 4th but then Mahomes has an unforced error, mis-handling the ball, fumbles and Bengals recover and score a TD tp tie the game.
Bengals did nothing to cause that fumble, game was not as close as it appears.
Eagles on the other hand should of won by 7.33 pts not 24, another mis-leading final score. Hurts had a lower QBPR then 9ers did with a 4th stringer taking most of the pass atts. But one of the problems with QBPR is it gives to much credit for passing TD's, what makes the difference if you pass or run for a TD ? They count the same.
Eagles were incredible at rushing TD's getting 31 in regular season compare that to 9ers 16, no contest. Eagles had 4 rushing TD's in this game.
Passing TD's reward teams with a weakness many times because they choose to pass because they can't run, like Marino did and ARod as well. Troy Aikmen had low passing TD's therefore a lower QBPR because they had a monster offensive line and Emmit with many rushing TD's. That's a choice based on team strength which QBPR does not measure, and why I may develop my own QBPR someday.
Point being if we adjusted Hurts for this he rates far, far better but even then Eagles win only by 12.13, still not close to final score.
This favors KC in the SB.
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1-1 ATS, won 1.5 units
According to PR I KC out-played Bengals and should of won by 11.09 pts not 3. Don't be fooled by that score. KC was held to FG's instead of getting TD's and with a 7 pt lead and driving into Bengals territory and a chance to go up 2 scores I think at start of 4th but then Mahomes has an unforced error, mis-handling the ball, fumbles and Bengals recover and score a TD tp tie the game.
Bengals did nothing to cause that fumble, game was not as close as it appears.
Eagles on the other hand should of won by 7.33 pts not 24, another mis-leading final score. Hurts had a lower QBPR then 9ers did with a 4th stringer taking most of the pass atts. But one of the problems with QBPR is it gives to much credit for passing TD's, what makes the difference if you pass or run for a TD ? They count the same.
Eagles were incredible at rushing TD's getting 31 in regular season compare that to 9ers 16, no contest. Eagles had 4 rushing TD's in this game.
Passing TD's reward teams with a weakness many times because they choose to pass because they can't run, like Marino did and ARod as well. Troy Aikmen had low passing TD's therefore a lower QBPR because they had a monster offensive line and Emmit with many rushing TD's. That's a choice based on team strength which QBPR does not measure, and why I may develop my own QBPR someday.
Point being if we adjusted Hurts for this he rates far, far better but even then Eagles win only by 12.13, still not close to final score.
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: Nice weekend for KC backers Eagles left over points vs. Chiefs leftover points difference I'm going assume leans strongly for KC in that metric of yours?? Eagles about 10, KC with many over 30, but remember, this method does not tell us who will win , only how many pts if they do win. method does not favor the team with most pts left.
THX
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: Nice weekend for KC backers Eagles left over points vs. Chiefs leftover points difference I'm going assume leans strongly for KC in that metric of yours?? Eagles about 10, KC with many over 30, but remember, this method does not tell us who will win , only how many pts if they do win. method does not favor the team with most pts left.
TC, I am also not crazy about the QBR. A QB could have a weak arm or his HC or OC could call lots of short passes, screens, and RB passes. His QBR would go up because of a high completion percentage.
I have mention my Passing Power Index (PPI) before. The formula: (PY - INT*50)/PA. What really matters is moving down the field and avoiding INTs. Mayfield, Brissett, Watson or any other QB on any team should not be penalized because of fewer TDs since their team has a strong rushing attacks and fewer passes in the red zone.
I call it PPI and not a QBR because a passing attack consists of many elements, not just the QBs talents and experience. A QB gets too much credit, and sometimes a backup QB can surprise because he is working behind the same OFF line, throwing to the same WRs with the same handss, running the same routes at the same speed with plays called by the same HC or OC. The same applies to YAC. That is also why frequently Injuries Are Bullshxt.
I use the same formula to rate passing DEFs.
1
TC, I am also not crazy about the QBR. A QB could have a weak arm or his HC or OC could call lots of short passes, screens, and RB passes. His QBR would go up because of a high completion percentage.
I have mention my Passing Power Index (PPI) before. The formula: (PY - INT*50)/PA. What really matters is moving down the field and avoiding INTs. Mayfield, Brissett, Watson or any other QB on any team should not be penalized because of fewer TDs since their team has a strong rushing attacks and fewer passes in the red zone.
I call it PPI and not a QBR because a passing attack consists of many elements, not just the QBs talents and experience. A QB gets too much credit, and sometimes a backup QB can surprise because he is working behind the same OFF line, throwing to the same WRs with the same handss, running the same routes at the same speed with plays called by the same HC or OC. The same applies to YAC. That is also why frequently Injuries Are Bullshxt.
TC, I am also not crazy about the QBR. A QB could have a weak arm or his HC or OC could call lots of short passes, screens, and RB passes. His QBR would go up because of a high completion percentage. I have mention my Passing Power Index (PPI) before. The formula: (PY - INT*50)/PA. What really matters is moving down the field and avoiding INTs. Mayfield, Brissett, Watson or any other QB on any team should not be penalized because of fewer TDs since their team has a strong rushing attacks and fewer passes in the red zone. I call it PPI and not a QBR because a passing attack consists of many elements, not just the QBs talents and experience. A QB gets too much credit, and sometimes a backup QB can surprise because he is working behind the same OFF line, throwing to the same WRs with the same handss, running the same routes at the same speed with plays called by the same HC or OC. The same applies to YAC. That is also why frequently Injuries Are Bullshxt. I use the same formula to rate passing DEFs.
Exactly, if we look at Burrows completion % and subtract the defense they were a very strong +9.5 % . Mahomes subtract his defense was only about +3.6% not really close.
But ave yards per pass att margin Bengals +.3 while KC +1.9 huge difference with KC far superior.
When a team has a big completion % margin ave per pass should reflect that but Bengals did not
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
TC, I am also not crazy about the QBR. A QB could have a weak arm or his HC or OC could call lots of short passes, screens, and RB passes. His QBR would go up because of a high completion percentage. I have mention my Passing Power Index (PPI) before. The formula: (PY - INT*50)/PA. What really matters is moving down the field and avoiding INTs. Mayfield, Brissett, Watson or any other QB on any team should not be penalized because of fewer TDs since their team has a strong rushing attacks and fewer passes in the red zone. I call it PPI and not a QBR because a passing attack consists of many elements, not just the QBs talents and experience. A QB gets too much credit, and sometimes a backup QB can surprise because he is working behind the same OFF line, throwing to the same WRs with the same handss, running the same routes at the same speed with plays called by the same HC or OC. The same applies to YAC. That is also why frequently Injuries Are Bullshxt. I use the same formula to rate passing DEFs.
Exactly, if we look at Burrows completion % and subtract the defense they were a very strong +9.5 % . Mahomes subtract his defense was only about +3.6% not really close.
But ave yards per pass att margin Bengals +.3 while KC +1.9 huge difference with KC far superior.
When a team has a big completion % margin ave per pass should reflect that but Bengals did not
@theclaw Do we have an update (or can someone find it) on the actual W/L record of the Bator Rule? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Bator Rule says to bet against any team that scores 30+ points and allows 10 or less in 2 consecutive weeks. The Eagles have done this in their two playoff games.
Not sure if it will work the same in playoffs and SB. I tried to look up SB teams but couldn't find any team did it
Teams can win bigger in playoffs and not regress so not sure what it means at this time but something to take serious in this game
1
Quote Originally Posted by Erik48:
@theclaw Do we have an update (or can someone find it) on the actual W/L record of the Bator Rule? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Bator Rule says to bet against any team that scores 30+ points and allows 10 or less in 2 consecutive weeks. The Eagles have done this in their two playoff games.
Not sure if it will work the same in playoffs and SB. I tried to look up SB teams but couldn't find any team did it
Teams can win bigger in playoffs and not regress so not sure what it means at this time but something to take serious in this game
........ by the time you see it, is too late.
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