NFL Playoff Ponderings and Plays Thread

Initial thoughts for Super Wild Card weekend 

Rams -10 PANTHERS - The Rams look to avenge a 31-28 loss in Week 13. Sean McVay elected to play his starters last week, but the Cardinals still gave them all they could handle for a while. The Panthers are now 13-0 ATS as a dog off a SU loss in their last 13 tries, and are on a 10-2 ATS run as a home pooch.

BEARS -1' Packers - Both teams come limping into the playoffs. Of the six games on tap for this weekend this is the one I'm least likely to bet on. Flip a coin.

Bills -1' JAGUARS - The Bills might be the scariest team in the AFC, but they haven't been consistent. You want consistency? Look no further than Jacksonville. They're on an 8-0 SU and ATS run (7-1 ITS) and are 7-1 SU and ATS at home, AND just might be the best team in the AFC. Liam Coen is my coach of the year.

EAGLES -4' 49ers - The Niners were humbled at home last week by Seattle, 13-3, and it could've been worse than that. Can they get up off the mat after losing the NFC West title and a first round bye? They ARE 7-2 SU and ATS on the road this year, so there's that. The Eagles defense is legit, but their offense has been inconsistent, with last year's OC Kellen Moore now HC at New Orleans. For the life of me I don't understand why Nick Sirianni elected to rest his starters last week. They need the work.

PATRIOTS -3' Chargers - This line seems a bit short, BUT, Jim Harbaugh has had more playoff success than Mike Vrabel, and Justin Herbert has more playoff experience than Drake Maye, who will be making his first postseason start. This is Herbert's first game as a playoff dog.

Texans -3' STEELERS - Houston has won nine straight after a slow start (6-3 ATS), but will the warm weather Texans be able to handle temps in the mid 30s? The Steelers get D.K. Metcalf back from suspension, but during the regular season Pittsburgh was outgained by 51 yards a game, the worst in the playoff field! 

No official plays yet, Still pondering. All thoughts and opinions are welcome here. And prayers. DEFINITELY prayers. 

3* PANTHERS +10' over Rams - As I posted above, Carolina has been money as a dog off a loss and as a home dog in general, but there are a number of playoff systems that also favor the Panthers, including these gems; Home playoff dogs are 9-4 SU, and 11-2 ATS since 2016, and in the last 50 years home playoff dogs of four plus points are 9-0 ATS with six outright wins! I'm not so bold as to call for an outright win here, but in what could be a sloppy game with rain in the forecast, I'll say 23-20, Rams!

This is Wagering 101

never lay DD on the road, especially in the playoffs 

take Panthers or pass on the game

also like the Eagles to cover vs the 49ers who lack a pass rush

GL

@Biscuit

 I'm still looking at the Niners-Eagles game. Line is up to -5 now. 

Adding a little fuel to my play on Carolina. The Panthers played last Saturday at Tampa and have a full week to prepare for this game. Meanwhile the Rams are on their second straight short week, having played at Atlanta on a Monday night two weeks ago, home vs Arizona last Sunday, and now a road trip to Charlotte on Saturday. Every little edge matters in the playoffs. 

@nmgolf57

A lot of line movement since my first post. 

The Packers are now favored by a point and a half. I still think this is a coin flip game, and whoever wins probably won't make it past the divisional round.

The Bills-Jaguars line also jumped the fence and the Jags are now favored by a point. There's no hotter team in the NFL right now than Jacksonville, but have they peaked too soon? They've averaged 36.4 points over their last five games. That's just not sustainable and the Bills should come in ready to go after resting their starters last week. Tough call.

The Eagles are now favored by six over the 49ers. Seems kinda steep to me. Still pondering over that one.

As things stand right now the Steelers are the only other home dog in the wild card round besides Carolina. I'll never fade a home dog in the playoffs, and since 2001 Pittsburgh is an eye popping 15-1 SU on Monday nights. Hmmm...

B8 

@Fuse 

Play #2

4* STEELERS +3 over Texans - WILD CARD GOTY! D.K. Metcalf is back, T.J. Watt is back to his dominant self, cold weather game for the warm weather Texans, home playoff dogs on an 11-2 ATS run, and the most amazing stat of all; after further digging I discovered that Pittsburgh has lost just ONE Monday night game since 1992 (23-1 SU)!  That's incredible! Should be a defensive slugfest, with Aaron Rodgers making more clutch plays than C.J. Stroud. 20-13, STEELERS!

One other tidbit: Mike Tomlin is 23-9-3 as a home dog with the Steelers. 

Panthers are shitting the bed. They can't afford to be giving the Rams this many gifts! 

@Boisestateand8

 wish that line was +3.5 -  I would load up on it

I didn't wanna wait and take a chance on it dropping to 2.5. But even then I'd still play it. 

3* PANTHERS +10'  

Off to a good start! Carolina has now covered 14 straight as a dog off a loss, but the season is over for that cash cow. 

@Boisestateand8

Definitely got me pondering. 

STEELERS UNDEFEATED AT HOME ON MNF... THE LEAGUE KNOWS WHAT THEY ARE DOING AND CLEARLY WANTS THE BURGH TO MOVE ON

BILLS ROLL I THINK

NINERS AND CHARGERS COVER

RAMS VS BILLS SB

@LuckyGuy 

 @UglyKidJoe 

 @CCYCO I might be with you on the 49ers.

@Boisestateand8

@kidd22

Play #3

3* 49ers +6 over EAGLES -  There's some risk involved with this play given the state of the 49ers' defense. But I'm betting that the Eagles' offense can't take advantage. Since their bye week, Philadelphia is averaging just 19.25 points a game over an eight game span (not counting the finale when they rested their starters). That number is inflated by wins over the hapless Raiders and Redskins where they scored a combined 60 points. This is important because home favorites in the Wild Card round that score less than 21 points are 3-38-1 ATS! It's also worth noting that in the playoffs, whichever team wins the .game SU covers the spread about 87% of the time. I wouldn't make this bet unless I thought San Francisco had no chance of winning. 20-19, 49ERS!

 Let’s win some $$

@boro33