NFL Playoff Ponderings and Plays Thread

Outstanding job brother!!!!

3* 49ers +6  Didn't miss my predicted score of 20-19 by much. I'll try harder next time. 

Just need the Steelers for the trifecta! 

Temps in mid thirties, with a wind chill in the twenties tonight in Pittsburgh! Brrrrr! 

Gonna be even colder in Chicago next Sunday for the Rams-Bears game. My ratings say Rams -1. +3 or better is a definite take! 

Gl tonight. Great job over the weekend 

I need Houston.   ??

Looks like you got em! Congrats! 

4* STEELERS +3 

Awesome performance by the Texans defense! Still a winning week, thanks to the Panthers and 49ers. I'll take it! 

I had philly moneyline attached to just about everything… so I had losing weekend… I didn’t so much see Philly righting the ship…. I played it off how beat up Frisco was… at home.  Rested last week… nothing..said Frisco would win that game… except team unity cancer…. Philly team is sick as a team… and that won the day.  I’m putting Seattle teaser into most every pick this week… I don’t see Frisco moving on…oh.. and I think you could still faintly hear …..we are the champions …..from the eagles locker room after the game…. I don’t think anyone ever took the time to turn off the record player from last year.   

Initial thoughts on the Divisional Playoffs - Saturday 

Bills -1' BRONCOS - The line in this game has flipped since it opened at Denver -1', and I wouldn't be shocked if it flipped right back again. The home field advantage is strong for both of these teams, and while I have Buffalo two and a half points better on a neutral field, I'm giving the Broncos a four point home field edge, playing at home off a bye, and with the Bills playing on a short week. Still, in a game like this would you rather depend on Josh Allen or Bo Nix? I have the slightest of leans towards Denver here, but I'm not betting against Superman. Feels like a 27-26, 24-23 kind of game. 

SEAHAWKS -7' 49ers - San Francisco just can't catch a break. Few teams have been bit as hard and as often by the injury bug than the 49ers. George Kittle is the latest key player to go down, blowing out his Achilles in Sunday's 23-19 upset win at Philadelphia. They did get LT Trent Williams back last week and that was huge, and they MAY get WR Ricky Pearsall back this week. The Seahawks grade out as my top team in the NFC, but there is a concern about the play of QB Sam Darnold during the second half of the season. After throwing 16 TD passes with five interceptions in his first eight games, he's regressed to nine TDs and nine picks over his last nine. The road team has won the last four meetings and the Niners have won four straight in Seattle. This game opened at -7 and quickly went to -7'. Even with SF playing on a short week and with all their injuries, AND the Seahawks off a bye, I don't think this line should be any more than four or five points. The 49ers are a resilient bunch. They have been all year. They're also 8-2 SU and ATS on the road this season. The 'Hawks are 6-2 SU at home, but just 4-4 ATS. The 49ers can hang here, and an upset wouldn't shock me. 

Agree Boise … I’ve teased a bit… including Houston … I think you may hit either way… not sure anyone wins by more than 7 in bills broncos… I lean broncos.. only because of buffalo injuries..but cannot play against josh.  Then I think frisco plus 14. Or Seattle pick… prob both hit.   Unless there is a crazy late pick for td… I don’t think you can go wrong in the nfc.    

Great breakdown down. Looking forward to see your final thoughts. 

Sunday games

PATRIOTS -3 Texans - Both teams used strong defensive performances to win in Super Wild Card Weekend vs. overmatched opponents. Houston ran roughshod over the Steelers in the cold at Pittsburgh, which surprised me since I had the Steelers +3 for my top play. But while the Texans defense was stifling and their run game relentless, C.J. Stroud committed three turnovers and struggled with the cold temps. He can't afford a repeat performance in Foxboro, in similar conditions, against a team that's probably about a TD better than the Steelers. The Patriots dominated the Chargers in Drake Maye's first postseason game, but there are also some red flags with THIS team. The biggest one may be pass protection. Drake Maye was sacked five times last week, bringing New England's season total to 53 that they've allowed. Going up against the best defense in football, one that's sacked opposing QBs 51 times, isn't ideal. Tough call in this one, but I won't be underestimating the Texans in the cold weather again.

Rams -3' BEARS - I played against Houston last week because of a super strong system going against them, and the fact that they'd never won a playoff game on the road. I lost, but the system is still strong and is in play this week. Here it is with updated numbers. DOME TEAMS PLAYING OUTSIDE IN THE PLAYOFFS ARE 14-43 SU SINCE 1990, INCLUDING 6-26 SU IN GAMES WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW 40°, AND 1-7 SU AND ATS AS CHALK. This is a strong play against the Rams this week. Temperatures in Chicago are supposed to be in the teens on Sunday, with a wind chill anywhere between 0° and -10°. Matthew Stafford injured a finger on his throwing hand last week in Carolina, which could be problematic in the bitter cold. L.A. needed a last minute rally to beat the Panthers, and are on the road again for the second straight week. The Bears are riding high after rallying from 21-3 down to eliminate the Packers behind another clutch performance from Caleb Williams. No way I'm going against them here.

Weaker Defense cold or not rams will  score and win I like the over too in the cold weather Bol either way my opinion not bashing 

I also don’t have biffs book so anything can happen 

@kidd22

 BOL 

I don't normally bet the games until game day, but I got some favorable lines. For the season I'm up 15.2 units combined in college and pro. Go big or go home right? 

5* BEARS +4 over Rams - NFL playoff game of the year! 27-17, Bears.

4* 49ers +7 over SEAHAWKS - 23-20, 49ers.

3* Texans +3' over PATRIOTS - 17-13, Texans.

Game write-ups in Posts 34 and 37. No clue what's gonna happen in Denver between the Bills and Broncos, but I trust Josh Allen more than I do Bo Nix. What I DON'T trust is the Bills defense. BOL peeps!

@Boisestateand8

 FD and DK have Bears +3.5

Where did you get Bears +4?

That stafford stat 1-9 in cold weather has me rethinking the outcome of that game Bol 

Local book.

@Fuse  BOL! 

Some further reasons for my plays today and tomorrow:

49ers-Seahawks 

Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 20 turnovers, and his meltdown in his last two games of the 2025 season still resonate. Seattle has the better defense for sure, but the 49ers COULD have a huge QB edge if Darnold continues his downward trend. Brock Purdy has never won a Superbowl, but at least he's been there, and has a huge edge in playoff experience.

Texans-Patriots

The current line is Patriots by three, which is exactly where I have it at. Getting three and a hook was too good to pass up. Houston has won ten straight, while New England has won 14 of their last 15. But the Texans have played the tougher schedule by far. The Pats went 2-2 in the only games they played vs. teams that finished with a winning record. Last week they took advantage of a Chargers team with an injury riddled offensive line, but their own line gave up five sacks. That's a bad omen going up against the NFL's best defense. However, for Houston to win this game C.J. Stroud will have to take far better care of the football than he did last week in Pittsburgh.

Rams-Bears

Two more reasons I don't like the Rams, besides the dome team-cold weather angle. Against playoff teams on the road, on a grass field, the Rams went 1-2 ATS this season, and this will be their second straight game on grass after struggling at Carolina last week. The Rams play their home games on artificial turf. Also, as good as the Rams are on offense and defense, their special teams are the second worse unit in the NFL, ahead of only the Saints. And lastly, while Chicago's defense isn't stellar by any means, they have a league leading 33 takeaways this season, and I have to wonder if Matthew Stafford's injured finger will hamper him in bitter cold playing conditions. It wouldn't be a shocker for the Bears to win both the special teams and turnover battles in this game, while surrendering more total yardage. And I expect D'Andre Swift to have a big game as both a runner and receiver in this game.

BOL this weekend boys and girls! 

Almost forgot this important tidbit:

Including last week's action, home dogs in the playoffs are now 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS since 2016! Only one game applies in the divisional round: The Rams and da Bears. 

The Bears have turned garbage points into a game winning strategy. 

@ETWINS

 Whatever works! 

Rough start for the 49ers........and my wager.