NFL Monday Night Ravens Raiders

@vanzack

 yup  gotcha did the same thing during last SB but it was made easier due to promo bets

you obviously have a large bankroll and commit a lot of time to the effort. good on ya

I will say this...  And a lot has already been said by others in this thread.

The traditional "10 cents for every half point, and 20 cents off 3 and 7" pricing model in the NFL is outdated and not accurate.

The game has changed with rules, 2 point conversions - but mostly by coaches FINALLY catching up with game theory on when to go for things and when not to.

So you need to analyze it all.  When is good to take -3.5 at -120 vs -4 at -105.  

Remember - every game has a line - and every line has a price.  There is money to be made by simply knowing which line at which price is the best option. When you get the grid that shows all lines at all prices - how do you know which one is the best?  Most just select the line the BOOK gives you, which is the one that is the most even.  But what if the price on a line slightly higher is better because you know you are getting better value?

THESE ARE THINGS YOU MUST KNOW AND WILL MAKE YOU MONEY.

@vanzack

 agree, not much sense in buying down from -5.5 to -4.5, less common scenarios for that to play out, although obviously still possible

most books rarely offer -6.5 anymore i find, they either want you buying down from 7.5 or selling up to 8.5 and lowering your odds (potential profit) in buying down scenario or losing potential wins by selling up to 8.5 (what just happened in begginnerboy thread)

Sorry, I am sure you not a square.  But this is the most square statement possible.

I often make wagers that I THINK WILL LOSE.  Why?  Because there is a price / payout ratio associated to every wager.  Nobody bets a +400 underdog thinking they will win.  They bet a +400 underdog if they think they have a better than 4-1 chance of winning.

I am "sitting around waiting for 3.5" because I want the best line I can get on any game, and will put the work in to get it.  Half points over the course of an NFL season will often determine if you win money or lose money.

The simplest - but most overlooked - advice I could give anyone.....  Just get the best price you can for the bet you want to make.

THIS!

Great example of buying a point, just for "comfort".  No reasoning.

 LINK

@vanzack

 I like/understand arb betting, but at the same time to do it regularly would take the fun/risk out of it for myself and it would become a job/boring to me

now if my book gives me an easy one of course i will take advantage

do you ever have concern about your account being closed or bets being cancelled and losing a good chunk of change? im assuming you been at it so long that this has already happened to you?

@dubz4dummyz

 he gives liquidity. it's a good thing.  the more of him the better.

Then why bother posting play with spread ... you might as well declare yourself a winner a be done with it. If you are posting play, you are going to judge by your record.

@budwiser

 solid point, they would need a lot of "arbs" for the size of the liquidity to truly matter i would assume, we are talking about large entities here for the most part, not small fries

If you want an even better line just tease 2 teams. Surely there are at least 2 games per slate that you love.

You are 100% correct.  It is not "fun".  It is work.

"arb" betting implies instant arbs on both sides simultaneously.  That happens, but more often than not it is taking a position on one side expecting a line move.  Remember, this is not taking a position on who you "like" in that game, but on which way you think lines will move both temporarily and longer term (up to 7 days).  I run constant analysis on line moves alone - so that you have graphs that display trends in line moves.

A key part of this is finding books that allow big wagers at small spreads.  Why small spreads?  Because a 2 cent difference in both sides is easier to overcome than a 20 cent difference, and profits are incrementally higher.  So exchanges are great like Betfair and Matchbook.  Small spreads - and never will be banned.  I also am careful to not cover wagers at the same book on both sides - so that book only think it is a wager that is made on one side. So to answer your question - I do not have problems with books banning me or giving me issues.

Software I had developed helps a lot with this.  I can set prices, tolerances - just like stock market software that allows limit offers and uses parameters so when I am sleeping it can make moves that I would have normally missed.  That is a big investment.  But well worth it.

But make no mistake, this is not FUN.  This resembles work more than fun.

This boy posted a good line! 

Unlike most where their posted play always seem to be half a point to their favor...

Undecided on this game, but lean Ravens.

BOL!

I am 100% fine with being judged on my record.

How many people at covers finished top 10 in the Supercontest?

I am fine with my record.  My point is simply to encourage people to explore other avenues of making money with sports wagering. It is like people are raising cows only to sell the beef, but throwing away the hides and ignoring the leather industry altogether.

@vanzack

 well in that scenario both 3 and 4 point outcomes are fairly common due to the structure of scoring in the NFL

this week there were 2 4-point games and 1 3-point game....so if those games were this game the +3.5 would have won 1 while the +4.5 would have won all 3

where you are on both sides it doesnt matter to you, you want the better odds to get the better payout to help you your arb situation (i am kinda assuming there but it makes logical sense), as long as you are risk free.....

This is no good.

Teasing is essentially a combination of buying points, and then parlaying them.  BOTH OF WHICH COST YOU MONEY.

*Unless there is an inefficiency in pricing like there was a few years ago on 2 team 6 point NFL teasers.  But for the most part, teasers are losers.  And you can often bet a teaser by parlaying the lines for a better price.

When I post a pick here, I ALWAYS use a current widely available line.  Not the line I get, not a fake line, always the real line that most can get.

Everyone should do this.  Who cares what you got?  Everyone only cares what they can get.

@dubz4dummyz

Uh huh...that's what vanzack is saying (he's "arbing") without saying it dubz.

We'd all know what he was doing if he just said he was looking to catch a middle, but he's doing much more, and good for him. 

And with his bankroll he can obviously bet both sides and win on the spread (OVER TIME), or hedge it linked to the ML, in addition to occasionally catching some nice sized middles in the eternal revenue stream with his fly rod setup.

Alas, most of us will just sit and stare in wild wonder.  And that's cool...and good luck to the arbitrage king for a great 2021 NFL season !!!

Hey dubs...just read closely vanzack's post #47 above, the last paragraph.  His slip is showing a bit; TMI.  He tells us he profited either way from the Green Bay loss...but what he's really saying is he lost a bet on the Packers which resulted in his total profits being $2,500 instead of $15.000.  That wasn't "profit on both sides" as he would like you to think.  It was a GB play that lost and wiped out a big chunk of his weekly profits...that's all.  No arbitrage there...just a stand alone loss on GB that wiped out a large chunk of profits.

Cheers  

@dubz4dummyz

 he gets it from the bettors and lowers the risk for the books.  it's good period.  allows books to put forth higher limits.  books never take wagers they're unwilling to make.

i'll never do it-as he said he has to bust his /ss-but glad he's doing it for the rest of us.

My point was to simply say that the LINE AND THE PRICE TOGETHER are what is important.

And the ability to compare two sets of lines / prices to determine IN THAT SITUATION which is better.

Most don't have this understanding or capability.

Touche.

Very very very sharp.  The part I bolded and underlined above.

You are very smart to point out that it is incorrect to connect my packers wager to my profits made on that game from trading.  They indeed should not be connected - they have no connection - and I blew a big part of my profit in order to bet a loser.

You are a smart dude.

@vanzack

 reply to #62

cool man good on ya, so you made a full time job of it?? interesting career to say the least

would say GL but you literally dont need it....well i guess certain outcomes profit more than others so GL 

OG...

Been doing this a long time.  A lot of years of losing went in to more years of profit.

I am no longer a "kid", and you learn things along the way that are counter-intuitive to the average person doing this.  Like any industry.  If you are an expert in knitting, you know shit that the average knitter doesnt even think about - or even worse know things that the average knitter would swear the opposite is true.

I love talking about it though.  Fun for me.