@vanzack
Hey bud...I wish you all the best. I'd love to be able to do what you're doing, honestly. Just don't have the capital.
Have a great 20201
@vanzack
Hey bud...I wish you all the best. I'd love to be able to do what you're doing, honestly. Just don't have the capital.
Have a great 20201
@vanzack
Hey bud...I wish you all the best. I'd love to be able to do what you're doing, honestly. Just don't have the capital.
Have a great 20201
i'm not a line shopper at all. and i have no problem with it.
i have to go to the books, time and expenses. get the game i want.
that's why i got the boys ml back when it was +240-maybe i was lazy, but i didn't have to make a trip back to the books, which again involves time and expense. could have predicted a move for the buccs-but then i can't predict the top offensive lineman for the boys being out for Covid.
2 different worlds, i'm happy with how i deal with it. really, it's the only way for me. it's about getting it down, minus expenses and time and ability to get to the book, not the price.
bottom line is ca$h-you either have it, or you don't.
i'm not a line shopper at all. and i have no problem with it.
i have to go to the books, time and expenses. get the game i want.
that's why i got the boys ml back when it was +240-maybe i was lazy, but i didn't have to make a trip back to the books, which again involves time and expense. could have predicted a move for the buccs-but then i can't predict the top offensive lineman for the boys being out for Covid.
2 different worlds, i'm happy with how i deal with it. really, it's the only way for me. it's about getting it down, minus expenses and time and ability to get to the book, not the price.
bottom line is ca$h-you either have it, or you don't.
@vanzack
i hear ya i just started turning into lifetime profit couple years ago after 15+ years playing, nothing crazy but the books have been paying me instead of me paying them
funny enough i was actually arbing before i knew what arbing was
@vanzack
i hear ya i just started turning into lifetime profit couple years ago after 15+ years playing, nothing crazy but the books have been paying me instead of me paying them
funny enough i was actually arbing before i knew what arbing was
Same to you.
Same to you.
Totally understand this and have zero issues with it. Different strokes, different folks.
Totally understand this and have zero issues with it. Different strokes, different folks.
Starting to see some very cheap -3.5's.
Pinnacle -3.5 +100
Surprised to see it this low. But will be watching closely.
Starting to see some very cheap -3.5's.
Pinnacle -3.5 +100
Surprised to see it this low. But will be watching closely.
-8.5 is an important line because of teasers. It is quite enticing to tease through 3 and 7. Moving to -9 is a big deal because now -3 is just a push and no action in many games.
-8.5 is an important line because of teasers. It is quite enticing to tease through 3 and 7. Moving to -9 is a big deal because now -3 is just a push and no action in many games.
I agree with you. But I think this is more perception than modern day reality.
Not sure how much this matters anymore. Will circle back to this in about a month with data.
I agree with you. But I think this is more perception than modern day reality.
Not sure how much this matters anymore. Will circle back to this in about a month with data.
@DB51daBEARS
good point i was just assuming his arb paid out less on the saints side, but good eye as there was loss there as if he was safe on both sides he should have remained at his 15k profit level regardless of the game outcome or actually eeked out a small profit from the successful arb
@DB51daBEARS
good point i was just assuming his arb paid out less on the saints side, but good eye as there was loss there as if he was safe on both sides he should have remained at his 15k profit level regardless of the game outcome or actually eeked out a small profit from the successful arb
@vanzack
response to #71
so are you determining that mainly off ROI factors??
the +4.5 obviously gives you that little added insurance, but the juice is increasing your needed win % (if no arb situation)
@vanzack
response to #71
so are you determining that mainly off ROI factors??
the +4.5 obviously gives you that little added insurance, but the juice is increasing your needed win % (if no arb situation)
Good thread. I've always said that someone who can consistently tell which way a line will move throughout the day/week is almost as valuable as someone who can pick winners consistently. Those extra .5 1 points on a spread or +10 +20 on a moneyline can make all the difference in the long run. Lotta good knowledge being dropped Vanzack as well as the other posters too. Arbing is definitely a full time job and not for fun. Gl with it Vanzack.
Good thread. I've always said that someone who can consistently tell which way a line will move throughout the day/week is almost as valuable as someone who can pick winners consistently. Those extra .5 1 points on a spread or +10 +20 on a moneyline can make all the difference in the long run. Lotta good knowledge being dropped Vanzack as well as the other posters too. Arbing is definitely a full time job and not for fun. Gl with it Vanzack.
I should qualify not at all a line shopper
When i get to the book i line shop. ml or spread
Usually dog ml fav spread cause i want to risk less
But in big games there can be a real skew and i take fav ml. Or in regular games too, tho much less frequently
It's one big game lol
I should qualify not at all a line shopper
When i get to the book i line shop. ml or spread
Usually dog ml fav spread cause i want to risk less
But in big games there can be a real skew and i take fav ml. Or in regular games too, tho much less frequently
It's one big game lol
You have to think of value in terms of the next 100 bets. Not just this bet.
So is -4.5 -120 better over the next 100 bets than -4 -105? Knowing the answer to all of these questions makes a huge difference.
Remember, if you plan on doing this for a while - THIS BET IS NOT IMPORTANT. The next 100 bets are important. Having "insurance" or paying more to have a better chance of winning THIS GAME often comes at the expense of long term profits. Insurance in general is a bad bet, but it covers utility. Things you cant afford to lose you insure - but given the choice - rarely is insurance a profitable decision. Same with sports wagering. Think long haul.
You have to think of value in terms of the next 100 bets. Not just this bet.
So is -4.5 -120 better over the next 100 bets than -4 -105? Knowing the answer to all of these questions makes a huge difference.
Remember, if you plan on doing this for a while - THIS BET IS NOT IMPORTANT. The next 100 bets are important. Having "insurance" or paying more to have a better chance of winning THIS GAME often comes at the expense of long term profits. Insurance in general is a bad bet, but it covers utility. Things you cant afford to lose you insure - but given the choice - rarely is insurance a profitable decision. Same with sports wagering. Think long haul.
Hey Budwiser...
Very curious to hear your process. I assume you live in Vegas.
How do you know where to place a wager? Do you use software? Online or you just walk in? Do you always just bet at the same place?
Hey Budwiser...
Very curious to hear your process. I assume you live in Vegas.
How do you know where to place a wager? Do you use software? Online or you just walk in? Do you always just bet at the same place?
@vanzack
No software. I get as much down as i'm willing to risk or as i can.
That's what matter in my world.
Vegasinsider up.to date lines, sbr offshore. I think they're delayed 5 minutes or whatever
If i a limit and got all day, time yeah i shop
@vanzack
No software. I get as much down as i'm willing to risk or as i can.
That's what matter in my world.
Vegasinsider up.to date lines, sbr offshore. I think they're delayed 5 minutes or whatever
If i a limit and got all day, time yeah i shop
Van, Its tough trying to teach the younger bettors anything. They already know everything. Most bettors online now are just trying to start a tout service and make a quick buck off down and out bettors. My God twitter and facebook have more tout guys then i think there are bettors on both of those site, lmfaooooo.
I remember 40 years ago i had 2 bookies giving me 10 cent lines on baseball games. I got them both to let me move the line s 5 cents in either direction. I had to bet the entire card, which i didnt care because all i needed was for the bookies to be off 5 cents with each others line, which meant i would now have a 15 cent difference on the dog. was playing 500 a game, which meant if the dog won i cleared 75 bucks for doing nothing. If the other games had no differences, it didnt matter, i would just play both sides and game would break out even no matter who won. Basically every night i would have around 8 plays that i needed the dogs to win. 19 years old and i was rolling in the dough with free cash each week with no risk at all. Well there was 1 risk, some weeks 1 bookie would get buried owing me, so there was always that risk that i wouldnt get paid, but still owe the other guy. I loved it when neither bookie got buried, that was perfect. What your doing is light years ahead of what i was doing.
Good Luck My Friend
CD
Van, Its tough trying to teach the younger bettors anything. They already know everything. Most bettors online now are just trying to start a tout service and make a quick buck off down and out bettors. My God twitter and facebook have more tout guys then i think there are bettors on both of those site, lmfaooooo.
I remember 40 years ago i had 2 bookies giving me 10 cent lines on baseball games. I got them both to let me move the line s 5 cents in either direction. I had to bet the entire card, which i didnt care because all i needed was for the bookies to be off 5 cents with each others line, which meant i would now have a 15 cent difference on the dog. was playing 500 a game, which meant if the dog won i cleared 75 bucks for doing nothing. If the other games had no differences, it didnt matter, i would just play both sides and game would break out even no matter who won. Basically every night i would have around 8 plays that i needed the dogs to win. 19 years old and i was rolling in the dough with free cash each week with no risk at all. Well there was 1 risk, some weeks 1 bookie would get buried owing me, so there was always that risk that i wouldnt get paid, but still owe the other guy. I loved it when neither bookie got buried, that was perfect. What your doing is light years ahead of what i was doing.
Good Luck My Friend
CD
Thanks for posting CD. Always good to hear from you.
Thanks for posting CD. Always good to hear from you.
@vanzack
Please recommend a software for tracking odds. Your system sounds good. Would you be able to post or send me a step by step guide to your system. Thank you
@vanzack
Please recommend a software for tracking odds. Your system sounds good. Would you be able to post or send me a step by step guide to your system. Thank you
Yeah, I will get right on that.
25 years of work, money, and effort and I will just give it all to you for free. Talk about choosing beggars.
I am very generous at covers with my knowledge. I prefer to teach you to fish. Look up my past posts here and start reading. There are 20 years worth of posts here.
Yeah, I will get right on that.
25 years of work, money, and effort and I will just give it all to you for free. Talk about choosing beggars.
I am very generous at covers with my knowledge. I prefer to teach you to fish. Look up my past posts here and start reading. There are 20 years worth of posts here.
right, it was a plan by Vegas. Are we talking Qanon theories here?
right, it was a plan by Vegas. Are we talking Qanon theories here?
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