NFL Monday Night Ravens Raiders

Line just got to 3.5 -108 and I hit the Ravens.

Ravens -3.5 (2 units)

Too much uncertainty with the Raiders OLine and with the defense.  The Raiders D should be improved, but after some time.  Ravens should be able to run the ball, control the clock, and win by 2 scores.

GL all

After watching the games yesterday, I am not so sure! What was supposed to happen didn't in a lot of games.

BOL on the play! 

must picked circa or superbook, i don't see 3.5's anywhere else.  yet.

may be headed there.

It seems the consensus is nearly even tonight but what is the money being put down on. If you know that then you know who will win pretty much

Welcome to NFL betting my friend.

What exactly is "supposed to happen"?  Why is the Ravens -3.5 "supposed to happen"?

You need to get out of this mindset to win.  

When I say just hit - I mean just hit.  Literally a minute before I posted this.  I have automated software that allows me to put in "offers" (kind of like limit orders for stocks") and set a price.  I set -3.5 -108 early this morning.  Was taken about 5 minutes ago, and sure enough - most books are following.

If you aren't line shopping with sophisticated methods - there is no way to make money at this.

Pinnacle -3.5 -107
Nitrogen -3.5 -108
Bookmaker -3.05 -112

GL, and good to see you Bud.

And just like that, Bookmaker is at -3.5 -108

I watch these lines in real time non-stop.  I posted this, and everything moved 5 minutes after.  I dont post very often here - but this is a big part of what I do.  Line moves can make you rich.

He's right. If you like a game and the line adjusts in your favor, hit it. Could be difference between winning and losing,  or losing or pushing. And in that case pushing is as good as winning

fade

I was reading one of the posts on covers about this guy or that guy joining Covers new "forum expert" tout program.  And there was a very insightful post about ROI by "gutinstinctus" in this THREAD

ROI is the only thing that matters.  Read that again.

This is how touts get by.  Post big favorites, but don't track your units up or down, just track your win percentage.  Or post 3*, 5*, 10* - but in recordkeeping only show wins or losses or unit size depending on which is better for you at that given time.

I went 3-3 on my posted plays yesterday, but I made good money last week.  How?  Multiple streams of wagering income.  Line buying and selling all week, setting up arbs, setting up middles.  This all requires sitting around a computer (or software) to monitor this stuff 24/7.  Having as many reliable outs as possible.  Knowing what line moves will happen when.  Beating those line moves by a minute or two.

THIS IS THE SECRET SAUCE TO WINNING $$$ - not just winning picks.  Get it?  99.9% of people here are concerned with picks.  Give me a winner.  That aint it.

What is "it" is being able to lose more bets than you win and STILL MAKE MONEY.  ROI.

If you want to brag to your buddies that you picked a winner, keep at what you are doing.  If you want to MAKE MONEY, think outside of the box.

This is the thing....  

You can fade and bet the Raiders, and if they win 51-0, I WILL STILL MAKE MORE MONEY THAN YOU.

I already have banked "free money" on this game.  Much more than you will wager.

Individual "winners" don't make you money.  Look at the date next to my name, then add 5 more years here where they weren't even tracking the date.  Think you can do this for 25 years and still be profitable year in and year out?  I am here to help you.  I am serious about that.  I realize I am trying to teach calculus to a bunch of smooth brained 4 year olds, but this is my character flaw in life.

Think about it.  You know I am right.  Anyway, GL on your "fade" tonight.  Won't matter to me at all.

FanDuel, Circa, Westgate all at 3.5 now also.

I'm tempted to get on this now.  Liked it at 4.  Might wait until closer to game time to pull the trigger. 

I don't see this going to 3.  I think this is as good as it gets.

If you can see a -3.5 in the -107 range I am not sure it will get better.

GL

South Point, Stations just moved to 3.5

@vanzack

 understood.  good stuff, good to c u too

i do brick and mortar, no line to the book.  see the lines but it doesn't matter until i get to the window

 i will have something tonight, if i can get to the window

onlines only wagerweb.  as u said a lot of vegas books moved

            Absolutely agree on this one, too much being made about home field and christening new stadium, Ravens roll

It simply amazes me that there are still people who believe in this type of logic...god bless the people like this one who keeps feeding the system to enable guys like myself to always know their money is safe and will have no issues when clicking on the withdraw button 

GL tonight Van, getting -3.5 could end up being very wise if this ends 28-24 Ravens  

Too much respect for you to think anything negative 

@vanzack

 Any team on any day can win

@packersbackers

of course 3 is the big number to worry about.

3 hits over 14% of the time (wow), 4 over 4%.  7 almost 10%

that was a study from 2015-2019.  But, with the new xtra point length i figure 4 will hit more often, as will 2.  who knows.

-3.5 @ -115 odds would be a no play for you?

Exactly on your second sentence. Yes key numbers still matter but not nearly as much as they used to. It is a product of not only more XP misses but also more 2 point conversion attempts. Of the 15 games so far this week only 2 landed on either 3 or 7. 

@Getty3

 true, i was pissed off when they moved the xtra point back, i don't know what the %s are but it seems to me if you are rolling on offense better to go for 2

like everything you adjust.  points matter more than ever now.  even 5 matters, which was almost useless before.

buccs boys landed on 2 because zuerlein couldn't hit an xp.  about 6% of extra points are missed now, more than 1 in 20, meaning you get 7 touchdowns a game more than 1 in 3 chance they're gonna miss an extra point

and teams are going for 2 more than 10% of the time now, and we can expect that to increase

crazy.