@vanzack
is jacobs playing?
@vanzack
And I've been on here following you since October '08! (Softballmaniac) I got banned for calling out ff (aka Gary) for stealing money from a few guys on here! Great to see you posting again! BOL tonight and this season!
@vanzack
And I've been on here following you since October '08! (Softballmaniac) I got banned for calling out ff (aka Gary) for stealing money from a few guys on here! Great to see you posting again! BOL tonight and this season!
@dubz4dummyz
good point -5.5 the new -6.5, goes with -8.5 the new -7.5, if you can figure that out (sure you can)
3.5 now hitting the online books. Vegas first.
@dubz4dummyz
good point -5.5 the new -6.5, goes with -8.5 the new -7.5, if you can figure that out (sure you can)
3.5 now hitting the online books. Vegas first.
Listen Folks, I've been here since 2005 and do fairly well at this ...I usually am a dog player.
Pay attention to Vanzack....he IS trying to educate the uninformed masses and help refine us who've done this for years.
ROI is what's important.
Listen Folks, I've been here since 2005 and do fairly well at this ...I usually am a dog player.
Pay attention to Vanzack....he IS trying to educate the uninformed masses and help refine us who've done this for years.
ROI is what's important.
@vanzack
interesting theory
when you say buying/selling lines all week, when you say sell do you just mean you get out of a certain position by hedging in spot that eliminates the risk from said "sold line"
if you are hedging on the spread there must be a certain number where you can "lose both sides" but I am assuming you limit these opportunities as much as possible??
@vanzack
interesting theory
when you say buying/selling lines all week, when you say sell do you just mean you get out of a certain position by hedging in spot that eliminates the risk from said "sold line"
if you are hedging on the spread there must be a certain number where you can "lose both sides" but I am assuming you limit these opportunities as much as possible??
@budwiser
sort of, I am more saying it is worth to buy down to -5.5 if you are worried about missed XP, which happen more frequently now
-8.5 is more of an oddball line and books dont factor in 2 point conversions a ton
-7.5 is if the books think it is more than a touchdown game, and they want you to lose your insurance of -6.5, or pay the juice to get it to -6.5 which some charge quite a bit to do....plus now with missed XP could now basically be -5.5
some would say if you are willing to do -7.5, might as well do -8.5, others would say -8.5 gives you 1 more avenue to lose that -7.5 bet.....we just saw a perfect example with one poster on here named beginnerboy
its all stacked against the bettor....and is our job to decipher where the right picks/value is
@budwiser
sort of, I am more saying it is worth to buy down to -5.5 if you are worried about missed XP, which happen more frequently now
-8.5 is more of an oddball line and books dont factor in 2 point conversions a ton
-7.5 is if the books think it is more than a touchdown game, and they want you to lose your insurance of -6.5, or pay the juice to get it to -6.5 which some charge quite a bit to do....plus now with missed XP could now basically be -5.5
some would say if you are willing to do -7.5, might as well do -8.5, others would say -8.5 gives you 1 more avenue to lose that -7.5 bet.....we just saw a perfect example with one poster on here named beginnerboy
its all stacked against the bettor....and is our job to decipher where the right picks/value is
@Raider4life22
judging from his posts he was waiting to get his number, which is smart
and is potentially hedged on the other side to lock in profit no matter what the result, although there may be a small window where he can lose both sides due to it being on the point spread and not straight up winners....
but with his experience I am assuming he has done the math to lock in profit and not have any risk, although there can be potential for risk with the point spread over straight up winners as most books dont offer a ton of points spreads over +105
it is called arbitrage betting
@Raider4life22
judging from his posts he was waiting to get his number, which is smart
and is potentially hedged on the other side to lock in profit no matter what the result, although there may be a small window where he can lose both sides due to it being on the point spread and not straight up winners....
but with his experience I am assuming he has done the math to lock in profit and not have any risk, although there can be potential for risk with the point spread over straight up winners as most books dont offer a ton of points spreads over +105
it is called arbitrage betting
GL Packers. Agree with everything here.
GL Packers. Agree with everything here.
Got it. Understand, and apologize if my response was aggressive.
Got it. Understand, and apologize if my response was aggressive.
I made a mental note yesterday to run some numbers on games landing on 5. Seems so often that it will either be 4 or 6, but rarely 5 because of the 2 point conversion.
This happened yesterday in the Chiefs / Browns game.
Where this would matter is not paying for extra points between 4.5 and 5.5. Have to see if this is correct or not.
I made a mental note yesterday to run some numbers on games landing on 5. Seems so often that it will either be 4 or 6, but rarely 5 because of the 2 point conversion.
This happened yesterday in the Chiefs / Browns game.
Where this would matter is not paying for extra points between 4.5 and 5.5. Have to see if this is correct or not.
OK. What I mean is this.... Think of lines like stocks. Except these stocks last a week instead of a lot longer.
So if you can accurately predict line moves - it is the same as predicting stock moves. You don't ever actually have to wager at all. If you just "buy" (bet) at a certain price, and "sell" (bet the other side or sell on an exchange) at a better price, you are making money.
The ingredients that make this soup possible:
1. Lots of outs and lots of book options. Unlike the stock market, there are multiple prices at any point for the same "stock", you need to have as many options as possible.
2. Constant monitoring for moves and changes (can be automated)
3. Ease of money movement between books, or at least from a book to you and then from you to another book
4. Liquidity of funds (lots of money available to make a little bit)
5. Good perception of line movement patterns
6. A good understanding of math, and value of line / price differences. Is -3 -120 better than -3.5 -100? In this game maybe, but in a different game maybe not.
Every week, I start on Sunday night. And by Sunday morning a week later - I hope that my spreadsheet has green (instead of red) next to every game. This means that through trading throughout the week, I have locked in profits. This is an income source from sports gambling that is in addition to any money made on traditional betting, and can give you great edges even on the games you like.
For instance, yesterday I had the Packers -3.5 (obvious loser). But because of all of the successful trading I did in the previous week, if the Pack lost I would PROFIT about $2,500, and if the Pack won I would PROFIT about $15k. Profit on both sides. Green on my spreadsheet. Nothing better.
ROI!!!!
OK. What I mean is this.... Think of lines like stocks. Except these stocks last a week instead of a lot longer.
So if you can accurately predict line moves - it is the same as predicting stock moves. You don't ever actually have to wager at all. If you just "buy" (bet) at a certain price, and "sell" (bet the other side or sell on an exchange) at a better price, you are making money.
The ingredients that make this soup possible:
1. Lots of outs and lots of book options. Unlike the stock market, there are multiple prices at any point for the same "stock", you need to have as many options as possible.
2. Constant monitoring for moves and changes (can be automated)
3. Ease of money movement between books, or at least from a book to you and then from you to another book
4. Liquidity of funds (lots of money available to make a little bit)
5. Good perception of line movement patterns
6. A good understanding of math, and value of line / price differences. Is -3 -120 better than -3.5 -100? In this game maybe, but in a different game maybe not.
Every week, I start on Sunday night. And by Sunday morning a week later - I hope that my spreadsheet has green (instead of red) next to every game. This means that through trading throughout the week, I have locked in profits. This is an income source from sports gambling that is in addition to any money made on traditional betting, and can give you great edges even on the games you like.
For instance, yesterday I had the Packers -3.5 (obvious loser). But because of all of the successful trading I did in the previous week, if the Pack lost I would PROFIT about $2,500, and if the Pack won I would PROFIT about $15k. Profit on both sides. Green on my spreadsheet. Nothing better.
ROI!!!!
Good to see you UMGMU. Think the Canes are going to have another rough go this season? They haven't looked great so far.
Good to see you UMGMU. Think the Canes are going to have another rough go this season? They haven't looked great so far.
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