***NFL Divisonal Playoffs***

Hey Hans,

 

I also like your Giant pick, There supposed to get bad weather possible snow per espn radio. I think they have had time to prepare. Jacobs is back and the stakes are different in this game. Philly will see a different team. I will make the statement that my NYG will go through Philly like they went through Baltimore earlier in the season. NYG OL are going to move people and Earth, Wind, and Fire will go to work and have a good day. Jacobs will pound them. And dont let me mention NYG Defense. They will hound McNabb with different Blitz Packages. Great game regardless. Watch for Eli to connect with Toomer. I also think Philly will get outcoached as well.  Thanks and Best of Luck.

 

Pasquale 

47-31-4 YTD Posted

 

- Well, went 3-4 last week.  Went against my instinct on San Diego and tried to get cute with plays on Miami and Minnesota.  Thats the price I paid for laying money on Tarvaris and ignoring an enormous matchup mis-match against the Eagles blitz.  Lesson learned.

 

- On to this week, still alot of homework to do, but my first play I am going large on.  I really, really like this play, although I would have preferred Arizona would've had to play the Giants in the cold.

 

Playing

 

 

 

- Arizona is 2-7 this year against either playoff teams or teams that were in contention and barely missed.  (Losses to NE, Washington, Carolina, Philly, Minnesota, Giants, and the Jets, wins at home against Dallas and Miami very early).  The combined average loss for these games was by 18 points.

 

- Arizona is 0-5 playing on the Eastern Time zone, losing by an average of 20 points.  

 

- Arizona is also 0-5 against Physical style football teams, which Carolina certainly qualifies at.

 

- Defensively, Arizona is giving up 31 points per game on the road.  Their rushing yardage allowed is not bottom tier but their road stats are skewed by playing a few poor rushing teams in the first place.

 

As for Carolina, the only teams that gave them any trouble whatsoever were physical style teams with either strong running games and/or strong defenses they played on the road (Minnesota, Giants, Atlanta, Tampa). 

 

- Carolina went undefeated in their home games, winning by an average of 17 points per game, including a ppg average of almost 30, which combined with Arizona giving up 30 on the road is a glaring stat. 

 

- Carolina rushed for an average of 173 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry at home.  Being this is a playoff game, the ground attack will be more prevelant. 

 

 

- I tried to fade Carolina a few times at home this season and learned a hard lesson.  This team takes pride in smashing defenses in the face on the ground, and their two-headed monster rushing attack led by Deangelo Williams is absolutely on fire right now.  I think they are going to run all over the Cardinals in this game, and with a large spread like this running the ball is of paramount importance because it is the best guard against a back door cover.

 

- Defensively, Carolina has been had a few times but rarely at home, as they are only giving up 14 yards per game.  Being that Boldin is banged up, Lucas and Gamble should have moderate success against the Cardinals air attack, and I expect to see alot of 3 and outs.  I also see Peppers and Jon Beason absolutely wreaking havoc on Warner.  A statute like quarterback against a resurgent Peppers is not good news for Cardinal backers.  Warner is going to be put on his back and hurried for most of this game, and I expect alot of three and outs and poor field position for Arizona, which sets up right into the hands of a Panthers rushing attack that is rolling along like a tank right now.

 

- The bottom line is Arizona is a soft, pass first team.  That works fine when they are playing at home against a rookie quarterback or the NFC West.  It does not bode well on the road versus a physically tough team that takes pleasure in punishing opponents.  I have a small worry about laying this much chalk with Delhomme but I don't think the game is going to be in his hands that much. 

 

I am aware this Cardinals team almost beat Carolina earlier this year, but Zona was playing better at the time and Carolina wasn't really rolling along yet.

 

Arizona has proven to be a patsy against both physical teams and when they have to travel cross country, and being that playoff games are more physical this game is setting up to be a complete and utter rout. 

 

 

BOL more to come later 

Everything adds up Carolina......that's why I'm leaning toward taking the 10.  Bolden might not play......last I checked......Breston has 1,000 yards and most of them came in the last 6 games I believe.  If Zona plays hard and gets a couple of big plays.....they can stay within the chalk.  Carolina will probably win......I'm just not sure yet........just remember......Jake Delhomie can be putrid at times. 

 

I already posted several reasons for this above.  I resepct the way Philly is playing but I think people are forgetting too quickly how the Giants rolled through this league for most of the season.  Losing Plax was a blow but they dominated by smashing the ball on the ground unmercifully.  I respect Philly's D, they are fast and attacking, but I think they will wear down late in this game if the Giants keep pounding them.  I think the week off is going to do the Giants wonders.  I think they are going to get back to business in this game.  I think Philly is very suspect on the road.  They don't have the benefit of facing Tarvaris and Childress this week, they are facing a rested team with a hammer for a coach that is going to whip the Giants asses into shape after their recent swoon.

 

 

The Giants will be much much better prepared this time around.  They have had time to gameplan around not having Plax, they have their pride to defend, and I really don't think Donovan is going to win twice in the same year in the Meadowlands.  Granted we have to cover 4 here, so I am banking on Jacobs wearing this team down and the Giants stepping on their throats late to secure and guard against a backdoor threat.  I won't try to take away from what Philly has done recently, they have for the most part played extremely well, but I maintain they have either caught teams in very poor spots (Dallas, Arizona, the Giants), or they have beaten teams they matchup well against (Minneosta, Cleveland, even Dallas qualifies here). 

 

The Bottom Line is the Giants will be prepared for a heavier dose of Westbrook this time, Reid should know by now they have been way more succesful when they try to run.  The Giants got caught with their pants down last time which is very rare for this team and for this coach.  They take care of business this Sunday.

 

 

BOL