HANS...Love your write-ups.I am a long time contributor here who has been real quiet this year as I have a lot going on outside of my degenerate life (lol) . But have followed and played avidly. You have great insight and we are uncannily on the same page in our thinking often.
My strong leans are CAR ,NYG, BAL ( by 3 and going to the big dance) and SD to cover. Unreal how in recent years and esp. when they are rematches, the resting faves on divisional weekend have fallen off the ATS chart but I still like 2 of the chalk BIG this week.
A note of interest. 8 times this year the league has seen totals set as low as 34/34.5 and all 8 have gone UNDER.
Will check in later with possible write-ups if time permits.
HANS...Love your write-ups.I am a long time contributor here who has been real quiet this year as I have a lot going on outside of my degenerate life (lol) . But have followed and played avidly. You have great insight and we are uncannily on the same page in our thinking often.
My strong leans are CAR ,NYG, BAL ( by 3 and going to the big dance) and SD to cover. Unreal how in recent years and esp. when they are rematches, the resting faves on divisional weekend have fallen off the ATS chart but I still like 2 of the chalk BIG this week.
A note of interest. 8 times this year the league has seen totals set as low as 34/34.5 and all 8 have gone UNDER.
Will check in later with possible write-ups if time permits.
should be a great weekend of games. at this time I lean Car, Giants, Pitt and Balty but no bets as of yet. Great writeups and I agree with them. IN the Zona game not having Boldin is going to be a factor. But if they run with Edge like they did last week that will help.
should be a great weekend of games. at this time I lean Car, Giants, Pitt and Balty but no bets as of yet. Great writeups and I agree with them. IN the Zona game not having Boldin is going to be a factor. But if they run with Edge like they did last week that will help.
As much as I hate laying chalk I am leaning towards every home favorite this weekend. Anyone have any data on home teams ATS in the Divisional Round (hence the extra week off?)
Normally we pay a tax for home favorites but I am just not seeing it this weekend.
As much as I hate laying chalk I am leaning towards every home favorite this weekend. Anyone have any data on home teams ATS in the Divisional Round (hence the extra week off?)
Normally we pay a tax for home favorites but I am just not seeing it this weekend.
Arizona's run D looked pretty impressive last week. I sure hope Carolina uses the pass then run formula. I think AZ;s secondary has issues.
Damn Edgerin James is playing for $$. Says he won't come back, wants someone else to pay him. Never ceases to amaze me how much better athletes play when $$ is on the line. You think the playoffs would be enough.
Don't underestimate the Titans, scoring against them will not be easy. If they jump out to a lead it can get difficult. Jump on them in the second half if they have the lead. Many will be chasing Baltimore, so that should be an added bonus. Of course, that is a big "IF."
Don't put too much stock if any in the Titans game against Pitt. They simply wanted it more. They had worked hard all season to get home field and they were not about to let it slip away. Pitt was very tired after playing a slew of tough/close games and seemed very uninspired
I like Carolina too. Things to worry about:
Arizona's run D looked pretty impressive last week. I sure hope Carolina uses the pass then run formula. I think AZ;s secondary has issues.
Damn Edgerin James is playing for $$. Says he won't come back, wants someone else to pay him. Never ceases to amaze me how much better athletes play when $$ is on the line. You think the playoffs would be enough.
Don't underestimate the Titans, scoring against them will not be easy. If they jump out to a lead it can get difficult. Jump on them in the second half if they have the lead. Many will be chasing Baltimore, so that should be an added bonus. Of course, that is a big "IF."
Don't put too much stock if any in the Titans game against Pitt. They simply wanted it more. They had worked hard all season to get home field and they were not about to let it slip away. Pitt was very tired after playing a slew of tough/close games and seemed very uninspired
Hans, great write up. It's all about teasing the underdogs this week, except for the Steelers. I'm leaning AZ with 10 or even buying some. Playoff games are tough to predict, but I do like the AZ running defense to at least hinder the Panthers somewhat. I think Steve Smith will be a big factor in this one, as the Cards are prepared for the run. Will Delhomme throw picks? This game will be a shootout for sure. Either tease AZ or the over. Loving the Ravens right now. They did not let the Titans D in their prime this season to get to Flacco. I expect a week of rest to be trouble for the Titans momentum. Ravens are alive and well. This will be a higher score than the 13-10 matchup earlier this season, but not much higher. As for the Giants, they are ripe for a revenge play against the Eagles. However, the Eagles couldn't be any hungrier than to play this one. The Giants defense has looked pretty bad as of late. The Eagles defense will not let Eli have a day, therefore the ground is where they will go, and they will get yardage, but how much? McNabb saw a lot of pressure at the Vikes. He will see similar pressure for this one, and I expect him to have a day. Just line it up. Big Ben has decent days, and bad days. This game is all about homefield advantage and Steeler D. Rivers will see the pressure and will feel it. He's been fantastic as of late, but Sproles will get stopped without LT, not enough options for the Chargers make them predictable; they will run out of options. Steelers are hungry for this win. I expect it to be closer than 6 if Rivers is on, but I tease Steelers down.
Hans, great write up. It's all about teasing the underdogs this week, except for the Steelers. I'm leaning AZ with 10 or even buying some. Playoff games are tough to predict, but I do like the AZ running defense to at least hinder the Panthers somewhat. I think Steve Smith will be a big factor in this one, as the Cards are prepared for the run. Will Delhomme throw picks? This game will be a shootout for sure. Either tease AZ or the over. Loving the Ravens right now. They did not let the Titans D in their prime this season to get to Flacco. I expect a week of rest to be trouble for the Titans momentum. Ravens are alive and well. This will be a higher score than the 13-10 matchup earlier this season, but not much higher. As for the Giants, they are ripe for a revenge play against the Eagles. However, the Eagles couldn't be any hungrier than to play this one. The Giants defense has looked pretty bad as of late. The Eagles defense will not let Eli have a day, therefore the ground is where they will go, and they will get yardage, but how much? McNabb saw a lot of pressure at the Vikes. He will see similar pressure for this one, and I expect him to have a day. Just line it up. Big Ben has decent days, and bad days. This game is all about homefield advantage and Steeler D. Rivers will see the pressure and will feel it. He's been fantastic as of late, but Sproles will get stopped without LT, not enough options for the Chargers make them predictable; they will run out of options. Steelers are hungry for this win. I expect it to be closer than 6 if Rivers is on, but I tease Steelers down.
Everything adds up Carolina......that's why I'm leaning toward taking the 10. Bolden might not play......last I checked......Breston has 1,000 yards and most of them came in the last 6 games I believe. If Zona plays hard and gets a couple of big plays.....they can stay within the chalk. Carolina will probably win......I'm just not sure yet........just remember......Jake Delhomie can be putrid at times.
Everything adds up Carolina......that's why I'm leaning toward taking the 10. Bolden might not play......last I checked......Breston has 1,000 yards and most of them came in the last 6 games I believe. If Zona plays hard and gets a couple of big plays.....they can stay within the chalk. Carolina will probably win......I'm just not sure yet........just remember......Jake Delhomie can be putrid at times.
As much as I hate laying chalk I am leaning towards every home favorite this weekend. Anyone have any data on home teams ATS in the Divisional Round (hence the extra week off?)
Normally we pay a tax for home favorites but I am just not seeing it this weekend.
I know Red, I found myself liking the chalk on all, although Im going back and forth on Balty/Tennessee. Scares me too, chalks have not done well in recent history in this round from what I am seeing.
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:
As much as I hate laying chalk I am leaning towards every home favorite this weekend. Anyone have any data on home teams ATS in the Divisional Round (hence the extra week off?)
Normally we pay a tax for home favorites but I am just not seeing it this weekend.
I know Red, I found myself liking the chalk on all, although Im going back and forth on Balty/Tennessee. Scares me too, chalks have not done well in recent history in this round from what I am seeing.
I will most likely be locking in NYG -4, will write it up once I play it.
I still feel great about Carolina. I can see why people are confident in Zona after they shut down Turner last week but I still maintain this is a much different team on the road, and Carolina is twice as physical as Atlanta. Turner was great this year no doubt but Carolina is a much more pounding team, which spells bad news for the Cardinals IMO. THe biggest worry is Delhomme, although if the run game is going good he doesn't have to do much and play action will be wide open, which again is bad news for Carolina as all Steve Smith needs is a slight hesitation by a corner biting on a fake and its lights out to the house. Unless Delhomme plays the absolute worst game of his life I think Carolina wins BIG.
Balty Tennessee has got me all twisted up. Its actually pissing me off that I can't get a read on this game. I'm starting to lean Tennessee but am having issues backing Collins against the Ravens D. The other thing that gives me pause is the conditioning of Haynesworth, who is by far the most vital piece to a Titans victory in this game as Balty has been wearing teams out on the ground and getting big hit runs late in games. I will probably puss out and tease Balty and the Under up.
Pitt/SD - A little crossed up here still too. Trying to think with my head and not my heart, as while I am not a life long Steelers fan I absolutely LOVE tough defenses and I respect the hell out of what they do. At the same time I despise San Diego. I am highly confident that Pitt wins this game but the -6 is giving me serious pause. May have to puss out and take the moneyline.
Of course, all of this hinges on how well I do in the BCS Championship tomorrow night. Not playing the side but I am laying wood on the under.
Love all the feedback guys.
I will most likely be locking in NYG -4, will write it up once I play it.
I still feel great about Carolina. I can see why people are confident in Zona after they shut down Turner last week but I still maintain this is a much different team on the road, and Carolina is twice as physical as Atlanta. Turner was great this year no doubt but Carolina is a much more pounding team, which spells bad news for the Cardinals IMO. THe biggest worry is Delhomme, although if the run game is going good he doesn't have to do much and play action will be wide open, which again is bad news for Carolina as all Steve Smith needs is a slight hesitation by a corner biting on a fake and its lights out to the house. Unless Delhomme plays the absolute worst game of his life I think Carolina wins BIG.
Balty Tennessee has got me all twisted up. Its actually pissing me off that I can't get a read on this game. I'm starting to lean Tennessee but am having issues backing Collins against the Ravens D. The other thing that gives me pause is the conditioning of Haynesworth, who is by far the most vital piece to a Titans victory in this game as Balty has been wearing teams out on the ground and getting big hit runs late in games. I will probably puss out and tease Balty and the Under up.
Pitt/SD - A little crossed up here still too. Trying to think with my head and not my heart, as while I am not a life long Steelers fan I absolutely LOVE tough defenses and I respect the hell out of what they do. At the same time I despise San Diego. I am highly confident that Pitt wins this game but the -6 is giving me serious pause. May have to puss out and take the moneyline.
Of course, all of this hinges on how well I do in the BCS Championship tomorrow night. Not playing the side but I am laying wood on the under.
ESPN made a good point, everyone wants to hate on delhomme but he is one of the currentbest postseason quarter backs in the nfl with a 5-2 career with a 92 passer rating in the playoffs, this guy is clutch, I remember few years ago going to the Giants in the wild card game and Jake figured out their defensive hand signals in the first drive of game and picked them apart. He may not be the most talented qb in the leauge, but this guy knows how to win.
ESPN made a good point, everyone wants to hate on delhomme but he is one of the currentbest postseason quarter backs in the nfl with a 5-2 career with a 92 passer rating in the playoffs, this guy is clutch, I remember few years ago going to the Giants in the wild card game and Jake figured out their defensive hand signals in the first drive of game and picked them apart. He may not be the most talented qb in the leauge, but this guy knows how to win.
nice analysis and use of the english language... that alone makes me want to back your picks (hopefully u pick balt/giants/pitt on top of panthers heh)
best thread ever
nice analysis and use of the english language... that alone makes me want to back your picks (hopefully u pick balt/giants/pitt on top of panthers heh)
they already played the AZ/Carolina game once.....Carolina was lucky....you can take all those stats and throw them out....Delhomme will put this team in danger.....-10 in the playoffs is not a good way to make a living....
You make a good point 10 is kind of high for the Panthers they are not used to being big favorites..
and luckylambo- dont get carried away lol
"best thread ever-" no disrespect Hans - cmon, maybe if you bet 25 thousand based on this post and they win - then yes, this could be the best ever but it would be only for you and only if they cover.
good luck lucky
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
they already played the AZ/Carolina game once.....Carolina was lucky....you can take all those stats and throw them out....Delhomme will put this team in danger.....-10 in the playoffs is not a good way to make a living....
You make a good point 10 is kind of high for the Panthers they are not used to being big favorites..
and luckylambo- dont get carried away lol
"best thread ever-" no disrespect Hans - cmon, maybe if you bet 25 thousand based on this post and they win - then yes, this could be the best ever but it would be only for you and only if they cover.
Excellent as always Hans, I'm with you on Carolina and I'm also betting Pittsburgh. NO PLAY on either of the other two, but gun to my head I'm betting NYG and BAL.
Excellent as always Hans, I'm with you on Carolina and I'm also betting Pittsburgh. NO PLAY on either of the other two, but gun to my head I'm betting NYG and BAL.
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