Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Pitt -3.
You know I can ramble on for days and manipulate stats and trends to back my pick, but at the end of the day, these are two fairly evenly matched teams who know each other well. Both are battle tested. Both are gonna be ready for this one.
This is strictly a gut feeling and getting a favorable line on a team who is coming off the bye and is well rested. Another else I have to say is bullshit. Tweak the line to 4.5, and I could very well be typing Baltimore as my pick here.
I'll be all over this one as well.
When this line first came out I thought wow the oddsmakers fucked up, this line should be 3. However I soon came to the realization that in my estimation the oddsmakers did fuck up. This line should be 4/4.5.
I think too much is being put into the close games these two teams have played over the last few years, in fact that's what most people are talking about. But when I look at the numbers and the matchups I see Pittsburgh being the better team in every facet. They have a better QB, passing game, running game, offensive line, defensive line, rush defense, pass defense, red zone defense, more yards and points per play on offense, and fewer yards and points per play on allowed on defense. Of course many of those factors are tied together and in some of them there aren't huge gaps but Pittsburgh has still been better. Baltimore did have a .21% better red zone offense and they must be given the special teams check though. So are the markets really telling us all those advantages for Pittsburgh are only worth half a point? I don't believe that is correct.
I've thought the Ravens were a big phony all year. Here's what I wrote last week:
If anyone has read my thoughts on the Ravens this year you know where I stand on them. I think they are a big fat phony. Their defense is showing its age late in games as they have blown numerous leads this season. Their running game has taken a big step backwards. Joe Flacco is an average QB, nothing spectacular. And last but not least their play calling and coaching is downright laughable.
My opinion has not changed a bit. A win over an inexperienced KC team that wilted and shit themselves does not impress me much at all. In fact I still saw a Ravens offensive line that played like garbage, a QB with very poor pocket presence, and an offense that all too often settled for FG's in the red zone. Jamaal Charles was running very well on these old guys before he got hurt and the Chiefs panicked thus abandoning the run in the 2nd half. The Steelers have two young fast guys that I feel can run by this defense in Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders. I'm looking for some big time plays out of these kids this week. They are very much like Jamaal Charles who the Ravens proved they couldn't contain. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Steelers set up a trick play or two or an end around just to get the ball in their hands.
My belief for a few weeks coming into the playoffs was that Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England were the only teams I saw that were Super Bowl worthy while everyone else had major holes. I will ride out that belief.
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Tell me about it. I drive a manual also so that's been quite the adventure also. I am getting pretty good at typing like this though so I'm going to try not to let it hold me down but so much. Thanks for the best wishes and BOL to you and I this weekend. I have the Bears, Steelers, Pack, NE, and a teaser that I might just shed a tear over if I lose.
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