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MNF: Den/Sd Hedge...1 out 8 team left to win $15K...HELP!!!

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Participants:

Posts: 103

jackoat

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 386

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:07 PM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by omalleys:

I know the juice is high. I am going to wait closer to game time to see if i can get +3. If i can get +3 at -150 or better, I would hedge 5k. If not, just going to hedge with 2k on +1.5 and hope sd wins. You lose value hedging.

Not enough. Its your money and im sure it wont break you or make you but you are now talking about betting $5500 on a game you already said you know little about. Really nobody has this game capped at any more than 3 either way so this could and should go either way.

Lets be honest. Even the small betters here have won 2k in a weekend before. Thats not a lot of money. 5k is a really decent chunk. I hope you put at least that on denver because i reallly think denver will win and you deserve at least that for the picks you made yesterday.

omalleys

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 283

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:09 PM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

However, good luck getting 7500 into an online book so quickly.

Maybe you know of a local old school bookie to take your action and use your current potential winfall as collateral,,,,only a local would likely take this bet on such short notice.

Kind of a cool problem to have,,,I once needed to run all over town trying to lay 12k of a hedge once,,,much tougher than I thought it would be finding someone to take my bet,,,,worked out in the end but I had to hustle like an OG to guarantee I was good for it

I see that you are from Ontario...get an account with pinnacle and you don't have to run around. The current limit for den/sd point spread is 70k on pinnacle. it will go up even higher closer to game time.

where to bet and the $ is not a problem for me....i have five digit balance in both pinnacle and 5dimes and i never had any problems with either of those books...they pay promptly when i request.

jackoat

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 386

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:10 PM ET #78

Also if you wait closer to game time and the line moves the wrong way you could be paying even more juice.

9wings

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 2317

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:11 PM ET #79

well shit if you are packing at least 20k offshore then fuk it... let it ride... u obviously can afford to lose

MrFrank

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 1062

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:13 PM ET #80

Hedge 5k Den +1.5

Buy it up, pay the juice, you don't want a Tie and a loss

MrFrank

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 1062

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:15 PM ET #81

go to vegas, Ontario SUX!

diondimucci

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 12934

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:22 PM ET #82

dont forget omalley u can also hope peyton digs a hole and san diego jumps out to big halftime lead. then u can have urself a huge middle for the second half.

DaBestEver24

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 2486

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:24 PM ET #83

U gotta buy pts now or u could get screwed both ways. Would b brutal if he hedged wit den pk and sd wins by 1.

omalleys

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 283

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:24 PM ET #84

Quote Originally Posted by MrFrank:

go to vegas, Ontario SUX!

Pinnacle > Vegas books.

Evenstar2012

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 331

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:27 PM ET #85

Just hedge 50%

omalleys

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 283

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:29 PM ET #86

Hedge Done...

I just grabbed Denver +1.5 (-118) $2360 to win $2000. I won't be doing any more hedge unless SD takes a big lead in the first half and i get a middle opportunity. In that case I will take Denver and the poits (to win 3k) in the 2nd half.

With that said, I still like SD in the game..line just seems fishy. SD is something like 8-2ats in the last 10 against these two.

omalleys

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 283

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #87

Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:

dont forget omalley u can also hope peyton digs a hole and san diego jumps out to big halftime lead. then u can have urself a huge middle for the second half.

this is what i am hoping for!

barlowmi

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 69

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #88

Youd be stupid not to hedge. Easy way for some guaranteed $$$. Thats a rare gift in gambling. Hedge and enjoy winning either way.

NFLJOE

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2009

Posts: 1916

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:36 PM ET #89

My brother lives in Hamilton and plays the same tickets ever sunday. I personally think that the broncos win this game and here is why.

The chargers looked good offensively against the saints. But the saints are GOD AWFUL this year. They're look completely lost of defense without Vilma so you really can't put too much stock into a good offensive showing against New Orleans.

Secondly, the Broncos are losing to some really really good teams. And even when they lose they're hanging in there for the most part. If not for turnovers they have a legitimate shot to beat New England. And that was on the road. The chargers got manhandled at HOME by the falcons. They scores a measly 3 points. Thats sad.

Thirdly, I always get suspicious of a line when a team goes from a slight favorite to a home dog.

So if I were you I would have to walk away with a minimum of $5,000 profit. Anything less would be criminal.

Broncos are the better team who have been tested far more.

Yanasaur

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 2997

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:48 PM ET #90

Since you only chose to guarantee yourself 2000 how about you give me the other 5500 you should be making tonight when denver wins?

730champ

MVP

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 16266

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:53 PM ET #91

why would you hedge now since you use pinnacle and can wait for live betting while your watching the game.. you will have so many opportunity's and be able to get the feel of the game.

Gabbo

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 3634

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:57 PM ET #92

It's more of a question of what you bet for tonight's game. Since you pay juice which everyone above seems to have forgotten, your total is different than 7500ish.

14900-1.1x=x, so x=~7095 assuming 10% juice. So if you don't want to care, bet $7095 as the middle point. If you want money on SD, then bet less than the middle. If you want money on Den, then bet more than the middle. You also have to note that you may need to buy a half point to make things even, since the line is at -1 currently. ~$6772 for 20%. ~$6478 for 30%

Of course, since you go through lotto, you will probably have to pay taxes, so your middle point is really elsewhere if you want to take that into consideration for the bet.

Gabbo

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 3634

Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 6:04 PM ET #93

Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:

Since you only chose to guarantee yourself 2000 how about you give me the other 5500 you should be making tonight when denver wins?

Will you give the extra $5500 if SD covers?