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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    MNF: Den/Sd Hedge...1 out 8 team left to win $15K...HELP!!!

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    omalleys
    kevone623
    StoneColdNinja
    CoverLane
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    omalleys
    omalleys
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 2:54 AM ET #1

    https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-oZw6CDVfyX4/UHuxZxwRPcI/AAAAAAAAAsA/7O1ImkzZDuA/s912/SAM_0042.JPG

    I need SD to cover -1.5 against Denver and I win $15000. Well $14900. I bet $100.

    I really like Denver tomorrow. How much would you guys hedge. My brother thinks I should go $7500 on Denver +1.5. I really don't want to hedge but thinking of putting $2000 to $3000 on Denver +1.5 so that I don't feel so bad if SD covers.

    I really like SD in this spot but the line is fishy...why only -1.5...its home game. Help me break down these games guys...thanks.
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    https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-oZw6CDVfyX4/UHuxZxwRPcI/AAAAAAAAAsA/7O1ImkzZDuA/s912/SAM_0042.JPG

    I need SD to cover -1.5 against Denver and I win $15000. Well $14900. I bet $100.

    I really like Denver tomorrow. How much would you guys hedge. My brother thinks I should go $7500 on Denver +1.5. I really don't want to hedge but thinking of putting $2000 to $3000 on Denver +1.5 so that I don't feel so bad if SD covers.

    I really like SD in this spot but the line is fishy...why only -1.5...its home game. Help me break down these games guys...thanks.
     
    omalleys
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 2:58 AM ET #2

    I posted a photo of the ticket but the link is not clickable for some reason. can someone fix it?

    btw, this ticket is the OLG (ontario government sports lottery....pointspread)  I play 8 teamer for $100 every week...i don't really play these government but i play the 8 teamer and sometimes the 9 teamer because that is the only reasonable payout odds...the rest are crap. two teamer only pays +100 or even odds!!!
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    I posted a photo of the ticket but the link is not clickable for some reason. can someone fix it?

    btw, this ticket is the OLG (ontario government sports lottery....pointspread)  I play 8 teamer for $100 every week...i don't really play these government but i play the 8 teamer and sometimes the 9 teamer because that is the only reasonable payout odds...the rest are crap. two teamer only pays +100 or even odds!!!
     
    kevone623
    kevone623
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:00 AM ET #3

    Put 1100 on denver. And hope to make 14000. Or at least a stack. I think sd wins and cover though. Gl
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    Put 1100 on denver. And hope to make 14000. Or at least a stack. I think sd wins and cover though. Gl
     
    StoneColdNinja
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:00 AM ET #4

    great spot you are in

    I think SD wins & covers. But I would still hedge if I was in your position.
    Good luck with whatever you decide to do
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    great spot you are in

    I think SD wins & covers. But I would still hedge if I was in your position.
    Good luck with whatever you decide to do
     
    omalleys
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:06 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by kevone623:

    Put 1100 on denver. And hope to make 14000. Or at least a stack. I think sd wins and cover though. Gl

    Ya i was originally thinking the same...guarantee at least around 1k so i don't end up with nothing after all the wait....but now i am debating if I should put more....right now I have decided to hedge $2k...but i might hedge more if someone breaks down this match up really well and gives me a good reason...i dnt really know much about these two teams. 

    would be awesome if mannings gets hurt somehow and i get +3.5 o denver before game time...then i would hedge half the amount...
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    Quote Originally Posted by kevone623:

    Put 1100 on denver. And hope to make 14000. Or at least a stack. I think sd wins and cover though. Gl

    Ya i was originally thinking the same...guarantee at least around 1k so i don't end up with nothing after all the wait....but now i am debating if I should put more....right now I have decided to hedge $2k...but i might hedge more if someone breaks down this match up really well and gives me a good reason...i dnt really know much about these two teams. 

    would be awesome if mannings gets hurt somehow and i get +3.5 o denver before game time...then i would hedge half the amount...
     
    CoverLane
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:17 AM ET #6

    hedge the fuck out and enjoy the free 7500
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    hedge the fuck out and enjoy the free 7500
     
    King_Midas
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:21 AM ET #7

    What was the point of doing an 8 game parlay if you hedge.  That's basically chickening out and reducing it to a 7 game parlay.  In any case, if you like broncos, make a 11,000 bet on them.
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    What was the point of doing an 8 game parlay if you hedge.  That's basically chickening out and reducing it to a 7 game parlay.  In any case, if you like broncos, make a 11,000 bet on them.
     
    upsetking22
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:23 AM ET #8

    you absolutely should hedge 50%. you win 7500 no matter what dont be greedy. trust me

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    you absolutely should hedge 50%. you win 7500 no matter what dont be greedy. trust me

     
    upsetking22
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:27 AM ET #9

    Everyone who is thinking san diego is a guarantee is a moron. they are just leaning torwards SD because its a home game. Denver Broncos over all is the better team. just look at the last 4 teams they played and look at the last team chargers played. Broncos clearly gave a better match to tougher teams. Broncos will win this game

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    Everyone who is thinking san diego is a guarantee is a moron. they are just leaning torwards SD because its a home game. Denver Broncos over all is the better team. just look at the last 4 teams they played and look at the last team chargers played. Broncos clearly gave a better match to tougher teams. Broncos will win this game

     
    football_007
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:42 AM ET #10

    You don't need to ask. Just hedge it for a fucking guarantee money in the Bank regardless of the outcome of the game.

    You are talking about 15k here not $150. 
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    You don't need to ask. Just hedge it for a fucking guarantee money in the Bank regardless of the outcome of the game.

    You are talking about 15k here not $150. 
     
    phillyfranko
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 3:51 AM ET #11

    I love SD...but Hedge # to 5 K on Denver..Good Luck.
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    I love SD...but Hedge # to 5 K on Denver..Good Luck.
     
    eflores
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:01 AM ET #12

     Denver   

    BOL!
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     Denver   

    BOL!
     
    Quantum_Leap
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:16 AM ET #13

    Game will be a shootout and hard to predict. Of course the home team should win. I'd try a HT hedge and poss make both wagers. If SD's up big at the H, play DEN. If DEN is up small, play is SD.I'd do that but w/ a sure $1000 on DEN pk em, or even buy a few and have DEN +3, and hope fora FG in OT from SD.
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    Game will be a shootout and hard to predict. Of course the home team should win. I'd try a HT hedge and poss make both wagers. If SD's up big at the H, play DEN. If DEN is up small, play is SD.I'd do that but w/ a sure $1000 on DEN pk em, or even buy a few and have DEN +3, and hope fora FG in OT from SD.
     
    Hockeyjock
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:17 AM ET #14

    I liike Denver...If I were you I would Hedge 50%.  These are two very evenly matched teams and I really don;t think anyone can argue that.  This should be a good game and I think Manning pulls it off in the 2nd half...

    GL man and congrats!
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    I liike Denver...If I were you I would Hedge 50%.  These are two very evenly matched teams and I really don;t think anyone can argue that.  This should be a good game and I think Manning pulls it off in the 2nd half...

    GL man and congrats!
     
    casanova27
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:19 AM ET #15

    Put 14900 on Denver
    Because there gonna cover
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    Put 14900 on Denver
    Because there gonna cover
     
    Hockeyjock
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:19 AM ET #16

    Also, you cannot post links on the forum anymore but people can copy and paste it.
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    Also, you cannot post links on the forum anymore but people can copy and paste it.
     
    wil168
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:47 AM ET #17

    I normally don't hedge on a parlay.  But yours is a special situation. Possible 15K payout. 
    I think you should ask yourself this question, are you ok with 7.5K payout?

    yes if SD ends up winning and cover then it would certainly hurt cause you just flushed 7.5K down the drain.  But look at the bright side, even thou you pissed away 7.5K but you still get to keep 7.5K. 

    It's your call and as a gambler i tell you what to do but point you towards the least damage control.. But your situation is win win either way. 

    GL on your final decision.
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    I normally don't hedge on a parlay.  But yours is a special situation. Possible 15K payout. 
    I think you should ask yourself this question, are you ok with 7.5K payout?

    yes if SD ends up winning and cover then it would certainly hurt cause you just flushed 7.5K down the drain.  But look at the bright side, even thou you pissed away 7.5K but you still get to keep 7.5K. 

    It's your call and as a gambler i tell you what to do but point you towards the least damage control.. But your situation is win win either way. 

    GL on your final decision.
     
    wil168
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:49 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by wil168:

    ...as a gambler i WON'T tell you what to do but point you towards the least damage control.. But your situation is win win either way. 



    Correction in CAPS.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wil168:

    ...as a gambler i WON'T tell you what to do but point you towards the least damage control.. But your situation is win win either way. 



    Correction in CAPS.
     
    TunaROLL
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:50 AM ET #19

    Why wont you try to buy points on denver and get it to 3.5 if possible. And try to go for the middle. Put 5k on it. If it middles than you win 20 k!!!! I think you can buy up to two pts. It might be more juice but hey. You will still win something right? But you took a chance to middle it to make 20k or hedge it to make something right? Good luck on what you decide brotha. But i would buy pts and try to get it to +3.5 on denver. Its a win, win, and another big win if you hit the middle!!!!!!
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    Why wont you try to buy points on denver and get it to 3.5 if possible. And try to go for the middle. Put 5k on it. If it middles than you win 20 k!!!! I think you can buy up to two pts. It might be more juice but hey. You will still win something right? But you took a chance to middle it to make 20k or hedge it to make something right? Good luck on what you decide brotha. But i would buy pts and try to get it to +3.5 on denver. Its a win, win, and another big win if you hit the middle!!!!!!
     
    WickedD
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 4:54 AM ET #20

    Great job 
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    Great job 
     
    vetdrm
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:29 AM ET #21

    Why is the line San Diego -1?
    Should be -3.5.

    Hedge
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    Why is the line San Diego -1?
    Should be -3.5.

    Hedge
     
    choiOi
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 5:44 AM ET #22

    Don't hedge...double up buddy.

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    Don't hedge...double up buddy.

     
    Quantum_Leap
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 7:25 AM ET #23

    Denver looks in better position. Your ticket wil lbe soon wotrthless. Play Denver at +3.5 -150. Or just play Denver su. Only way SD wins even tho outplayed is by t/os or good luck.

    They won at NE last week were it not for a fumble by McGehee in the redzone last drive. Thel want it. Playff team a yr ago and Manning > Rivers.

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    Denver looks in better position. Your ticket wil lbe soon wotrthless. Play Denver at +3.5 -150. Or just play Denver su. Only way SD wins even tho outplayed is by t/os or good luck.

    They won at NE last week were it not for a fumble by McGehee in the redzone last drive. Thel want it. Playff team a yr ago and Manning > Rivers.

     
    JBecks12
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 7:43 AM ET #24

    NO need to guess or even sweat it. Just hedge upto 7500 less 1UNIT (whatever your normal unit is) and make it a fun game to watch, while banking free money.

    If you want to worry then think @ why line opened @ -3 and down to -1 and even went down to pk atleast twice. Only 62% pub money on Den, but oddsmakers are behaving like they cant get any money on SD.
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    NO need to guess or even sweat it. Just hedge upto 7500 less 1UNIT (whatever your normal unit is) and make it a fun game to watch, while banking free money.

    If you want to worry then think @ why line opened @ -3 and down to -1 and even went down to pk atleast twice. Only 62% pub money on Den, but oddsmakers are behaving like they cant get any money on SD.
     
     
    Slobbasaurus
    Slobbasaurus
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2012 - 8:32 AM ET #25

    Let that shit ride.  In all seriousness, I'd hedge around 5-6K if I were you.  Good stuff man and GL
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    Let that shit ride.  In all seriousness, I'd hedge around 5-6K if I were you.  Good stuff man and GL
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