I get the feeling that you are the kind of poker player that slowplays AA, sees the flop come out 822, calls the BB's all in and then whines that you had him beat when he turns over 72o.
Nobody is saying that you shouldn't take the lead. What we are saying is that quicksnapping it doesn't dramatically change the play's probability of success. Whether its 40,50,60,70%, I think you would see that any given prob, you are worse off giving Brady an extra 20 seconds on success even if it means costing yourself that 20 seconds on failure. After all the time helps far more when you need 40 yards than when you need 1.
No offense, but you really aren't very smart...Are you?
PETE? IS THAT YOU PETE?
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
I get the feeling that you are the kind of poker player that slowplays AA, sees the flop come out 822, calls the BB's all in and then whines that you had him beat when he turns over 72o.
Nobody is saying that you shouldn't take the lead. What we are saying is that quicksnapping it doesn't dramatically change the play's probability of success. Whether its 40,50,60,70%, I think you would see that any given prob, you are worse off giving Brady an extra 20 seconds on success even if it means costing yourself that 20 seconds on failure. After all the time helps far more when you need 40 yards than when you need 1.
No offense, but you really aren't very smart...Are you?
so because you're a '' seahawks '' fan that makes it ok and you're right? Awesome thanks man. It was the right call.
f#ckwit
The fact that I'm a Seahawks fan doesn't really have anything to do with it. I'm not sure why I mentioned it. I guess just to emphasize that I was as unhappy with the results as anyone else.
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Quote Originally Posted by threwSBaway:
so because you're a '' seahawks '' fan that makes it ok and you're right? Awesome thanks man. It was the right call.
f#ckwit
The fact that I'm a Seahawks fan doesn't really have anything to do with it. I'm not sure why I mentioned it. I guess just to emphasize that I was as unhappy with the results as anyone else.
Yes IDIOT that is what I am implying. Line up with the same players that got you from the 5 to the 1 and run the same play. If bill does not call a time out then you are now in the lead. Seattle had the momentum and they FUGGED UP.NOW GET OVER IT IDIOT.
I'm sorry. I know I'm picking on you. But you just said that you thought that one play working had a significant impact on the next play working when all the evidence says thats not true. Its just such a stupid rookie mistake. I really do picture you wandering around looking for the "hot" slot machine.
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Quote Originally Posted by line_tamer:
Yes IDIOT that is what I am implying. Line up with the same players that got you from the 5 to the 1 and run the same play. If bill does not call a time out then you are now in the lead. Seattle had the momentum and they FUGGED UP.NOW GET OVER IT IDIOT.
I'm sorry. I know I'm picking on you. But you just said that you thought that one play working had a significant impact on the next play working when all the evidence says thats not true. Its just such a stupid rookie mistake. I really do picture you wandering around looking for the "hot" slot machine.
Oh...I totally think that you were one of the people I used to make a lot of money off of in the old days.
"99.99999999% sure"
Yep. You are an idiot. Thats 100% sure.
You never made any money off of me. Your mother or your wife ever charged me a dime
There really isn't that much difference between 1st and goal from the 5 and 2nd and goal from the 1 in a defensive playcalling perspective. Belichick was happy leaving the people he had in there. At this stage in the game, the timeouts were useful for clock purposes not subbing.
Did you really mean to imply that the fact that the last play was a success (moderate success as a 4 yard run) would have correlated with the next play, much less correlated to such a degree that Belichick would have panicked into burning a very useful timeout for a defensive realignment from what he just called for the same Seattle players?
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Oh...I totally think that you were one of the people I used to make a lot of money off of in the old days.
"99.99999999% sure"
Yep. You are an idiot. Thats 100% sure.
You never made any money off of me. Your mother or your wife ever charged me a dime
There really isn't that much difference between 1st and goal from the 5 and 2nd and goal from the 1 in a defensive playcalling perspective. Belichick was happy leaving the people he had in there. At this stage in the game, the timeouts were useful for clock purposes not subbing.
Did you really mean to imply that the fact that the last play was a success (moderate success as a 4 yard run) would have correlated with the next play, much less correlated to such a degree that Belichick would have panicked into burning a very useful timeout for a defensive realignment from what he just called for the same Seattle players?
I'm sorry. I know I'm picking on you. But you just said that you thought that one play working had a significant impact on the next play working when all the evidence says thats not true. Its just such a stupid rookie mistake. I really do picture you wandering around looking for the "hot" slot machine.
What evidence are you talking about columbo?
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
I'm sorry. I know I'm picking on you. But you just said that you thought that one play working had a significant impact on the next play working when all the evidence says thats not true. Its just such a stupid rookie mistake. I really do picture you wandering around looking for the "hot" slot machine.
I had the pats. I should have been a loser except for pete's inept call. He blew it and you know he did.
I'm not talking about this one game. I'm talking about life. I know you lose a lot of money gambling. I used to be a winning gambler. I won by taking advantage of people like you and your really twisted logic. I don't gamble anymore but that has more to do with the regulatory environment than anything else. If you are going to keep watching sports (and definitely if you are going to bet on it) , try to open your mind and not just believe all the garbage Collinsworth and Michaels tell you. If they were right, you'd be making a lot of money. You're not. So what does that tell you?
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Quote Originally Posted by line_tamer:
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
This is why you are a losing gambler.
[/Quote
I had the pats. I should have been a loser except for pete's inept call. He blew it and you know he did.
I'm not talking about this one game. I'm talking about life. I know you lose a lot of money gambling. I used to be a winning gambler. I won by taking advantage of people like you and your really twisted logic. I don't gamble anymore but that has more to do with the regulatory environment than anything else. If you are going to keep watching sports (and definitely if you are going to bet on it) , try to open your mind and not just believe all the garbage Collinsworth and Michaels tell you. If they were right, you'd be making a lot of money. You're not. So what does that tell you?
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
Give this guy the dumbest poster of Covers award. Hands down, you win!!!
Everyone that knows anything about football wouldn't pass and risk getting intercepted there. Especially passing to a nobody when you have the best running back in the league. .
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
Give this guy the dumbest poster of Covers award. Hands down, you win!!!
Everyone that knows anything about football wouldn't pass and risk getting intercepted there. Especially passing to a nobody when you have the best running back in the league. .
So even you are admitting play action pass was better. And Carroll admitted he made a mistake
Yeah. I'm not trying to be Pete Carroll's agent. In every situation, there is probably something a little better than what was called. In my opinion though, a run would have been worse. I really see this more as a pass/run issue.
As far as admitting he made a mistake, take all athlete/coach interviews with a huge grain of salt. I don't think any of them ever say anything of substance. I think he thought to himself, I could try to explain the logic of the whole thing or I could just give them what they want and go away. I would have done the same thing. I'm sure he didn't feel like getting into a debate over football strategy with the reporter at that particular moment.
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Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:
So even you are admitting play action pass was better. And Carroll admitted he made a mistake
Yeah. I'm not trying to be Pete Carroll's agent. In every situation, there is probably something a little better than what was called. In my opinion though, a run would have been worse. I really see this more as a pass/run issue.
As far as admitting he made a mistake, take all athlete/coach interviews with a huge grain of salt. I don't think any of them ever say anything of substance. I think he thought to himself, I could try to explain the logic of the whole thing or I could just give them what they want and go away. I would have done the same thing. I'm sure he didn't feel like getting into a debate over football strategy with the reporter at that particular moment.
Here's a better question. What evidence do you have that momentum exists? Ever notice how often it seems to shift? Perhaps thats because it never existed in the first place. I did a lot of research into this back when I was gambling. Momentum is a myth. After adjusting for the relative talents of the teams, you are no more or less likely to have a good play after a good play or a bad play after a good one. Its like flipping coins. Sometimes you get a bunch of heads in a row. Sometimes you get a bunch of tails in a row. Sometimes you get HTHT. Go ahead and look at the numbers yourself. You'll be a better gambler if you do. advancedfootballanalytics.com and pro-football-reference.com both graph probability distributions. Notice how many times the line shifts direction. Thats because momentum is a myth.
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Quote Originally Posted by line_tamer:
What evidence are you talking about columbo?
Here's a better question. What evidence do you have that momentum exists? Ever notice how often it seems to shift? Perhaps thats because it never existed in the first place. I did a lot of research into this back when I was gambling. Momentum is a myth. After adjusting for the relative talents of the teams, you are no more or less likely to have a good play after a good play or a bad play after a good one. Its like flipping coins. Sometimes you get a bunch of heads in a row. Sometimes you get a bunch of tails in a row. Sometimes you get HTHT. Go ahead and look at the numbers yourself. You'll be a better gambler if you do. advancedfootballanalytics.com and pro-football-reference.com both graph probability distributions. Notice how many times the line shifts direction. Thats because momentum is a myth.
OP is a moron. Even Carroll and Bevell admitted they should've made a different call.
The reason Seattle passed on 2d down was because they tried to run down the clock AND score. You'll notice after the 1st down run, there's about :45 left, plenty of time for 3 more plays with 1 timeout. They could've made 2 running plays and then called timeout and run a 3rd running play.
But they let 18 seconds burn before starting the 2nd down. At that point, they can't afford to run.
And that's why Carroll and Bevell kept harping on. And that's why it was a dumb call. So many things could've happened on that play even if Butler doesn't pick it. It could pop in the air and another NE player could pick it off. Also, that was an obvious pick by the slot WR. It could've easily been called offensive PI which would set them back 10 yards.
Lynch was getting at least 2 yards all by himself without any blocking. He just got 3 yards on the prior drive. I know it's hindsight but that really was the right call. If you can't use the #1 D to stop Brady with :40 left and starting on his 20 y.l. then you deserve to lose.
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OP is a moron. Even Carroll and Bevell admitted they should've made a different call.
The reason Seattle passed on 2d down was because they tried to run down the clock AND score. You'll notice after the 1st down run, there's about :45 left, plenty of time for 3 more plays with 1 timeout. They could've made 2 running plays and then called timeout and run a 3rd running play.
But they let 18 seconds burn before starting the 2nd down. At that point, they can't afford to run.
And that's why Carroll and Bevell kept harping on. And that's why it was a dumb call. So many things could've happened on that play even if Butler doesn't pick it. It could pop in the air and another NE player could pick it off. Also, that was an obvious pick by the slot WR. It could've easily been called offensive PI which would set them back 10 yards.
Lynch was getting at least 2 yards all by himself without any blocking. He just got 3 yards on the prior drive. I know it's hindsight but that really was the right call. If you can't use the #1 D to stop Brady with :40 left and starting on his 20 y.l. then you deserve to lose.
Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
Seriously???? You got just over a yard to go with one of the toughest backs in the league to win the biggest game of the year! The one that 32 teams try to win. Ok, so you RUN the KNOWING that you have a timeout left. A play that is only going to burn 5 or 6 seconds. If they stop Lynch or even calling a play action bootleg with Wilson (a VERY GOOD running QB) and don't make it. You call timeout with 20+/- seconds left. You call two plays on third down. By the way should have already had that scripted in their game plan. Two plays called 20 seconds you actually had enough time to run it on third down if they choose to. A rollout pass option run with Wilson on third down? Nothing available throw it away and plan B for 4th down.
Ok for whatever unknown ungodly reason calling a pass play on second down, WHY WOULD YOU EVER CONSIDER A 1 YARD SLANT PLAY WHEN THE "D" IS ALL WITHIN 2 YARDS OF THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE????? A fade to the outside shoulder in the corner where it's very hard to get picked, that's the only pass play you can consider on second down.
For the record I had the Pats straight and the over/pats parlay, but the pool I was in paid more than my bets if Seattle scores! My 1-8 total score paid $5000!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
Seriously???? You got just over a yard to go with one of the toughest backs in the league to win the biggest game of the year! The one that 32 teams try to win. Ok, so you RUN the KNOWING that you have a timeout left. A play that is only going to burn 5 or 6 seconds. If they stop Lynch or even calling a play action bootleg with Wilson (a VERY GOOD running QB) and don't make it. You call timeout with 20+/- seconds left. You call two plays on third down. By the way should have already had that scripted in their game plan. Two plays called 20 seconds you actually had enough time to run it on third down if they choose to. A rollout pass option run with Wilson on third down? Nothing available throw it away and plan B for 4th down.
Ok for whatever unknown ungodly reason calling a pass play on second down, WHY WOULD YOU EVER CONSIDER A 1 YARD SLANT PLAY WHEN THE "D" IS ALL WITHIN 2 YARDS OF THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE????? A fade to the outside shoulder in the corner where it's very hard to get picked, that's the only pass play you can consider on second down.
For the record I had the Pats straight and the over/pats parlay, but the pool I was in paid more than my bets if Seattle scores! My 1-8 total score paid $5000!!!!
OP is a moron. Even Carroll and Bevell admitted they should've made a different call.
The reason Seattle passed on 2d down was because they tried to run down the clock AND score. You'll notice after the 1st down run, there's about :45 left, plenty of time for 3 more plays with 1 timeout. They could've made 2 running plays and then called timeout and run a 3rd running play.
But they let 18 seconds burn before starting the 2nd down. At that point, they can't afford to run.
And that's why Carroll and Bevell kept harping on. And that's why it was a dumb call. So many things could've happened on that play even if Butler doesn't pick it. It could pop in the air and another NE player could pick it off. Also, that was an obvious pick by the slot WR. It could've easily been called offensive PI which would set them back 10 yards.
Lynch was getting at least 2 yards all by himself without any blocking. He just got 3 yards on the prior drive. I know it's hindsight but that really was the right call. If you can't use the #1 D to stop Brady with :40 left and starting on his 20 y.l. then you deserve to lose.
Exactly! When Lynch landed at the end of the first down run there was 1:03 on the clock. When Wilson threw the pick there was 22 seconds on the clock. The OP insists that momentum is a myth but the pats were reeling and hawks had confidence. when carrol starts running wide outs in the game bill had the rights to sub under substitution rule and ref sits on the ball to allow him to sub and way too much time ran off the clock and Wilson panicked. Sad because I like Wilson but carrol needs to break out his checkbook and refund his salary.
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Quote Originally Posted by composite:
OP is a moron. Even Carroll and Bevell admitted they should've made a different call.
The reason Seattle passed on 2d down was because they tried to run down the clock AND score. You'll notice after the 1st down run, there's about :45 left, plenty of time for 3 more plays with 1 timeout. They could've made 2 running plays and then called timeout and run a 3rd running play.
But they let 18 seconds burn before starting the 2nd down. At that point, they can't afford to run.
And that's why Carroll and Bevell kept harping on. And that's why it was a dumb call. So many things could've happened on that play even if Butler doesn't pick it. It could pop in the air and another NE player could pick it off. Also, that was an obvious pick by the slot WR. It could've easily been called offensive PI which would set them back 10 yards.
Lynch was getting at least 2 yards all by himself without any blocking. He just got 3 yards on the prior drive. I know it's hindsight but that really was the right call. If you can't use the #1 D to stop Brady with :40 left and starting on his 20 y.l. then you deserve to lose.
Exactly! When Lynch landed at the end of the first down run there was 1:03 on the clock. When Wilson threw the pick there was 22 seconds on the clock. The OP insists that momentum is a myth but the pats were reeling and hawks had confidence. when carrol starts running wide outs in the game bill had the rights to sub under substitution rule and ref sits on the ball to allow him to sub and way too much time ran off the clock and Wilson panicked. Sad because I like Wilson but carrol needs to break out his checkbook and refund his salary.
Exactly! When Lynch landed at the end of the first down run there was 1:03 on the clock. When Wilson threw the pick there was 22 seconds on the clock. The OP insists that momentum is a myth but the pats were reeling and hawks had confidence. when carrol starts running wide outs in the game bill had the rights to sub under substitution rule and ref sits on the ball to allow him to sub and way too much time ran off the clock and Wilson panicked. Sad because I like Wilson but carrol needs to break out his checkbook and refund his salary.
Momentum is a myth. The Hawks had confidence and the Pats were reeling. How far did that get them? How far did it get the Pats when the situation was the exact reverse 1 minute prior? You skipped my earlier post but the message is still the same. The idea that just because one team had a good event happen recently, they are more likely to have another good event happen is simply not true. I know it goes against everything you've been taught about sports but momentum simply does not exist.
I am hardly the only one to notice this fact. Google "momentum myth" and you'll see many studies on this topic.
As far as "panicking" and running too much time off the clock, I just don't see it. I mean obviously he threw a bad pass but to chalk it up to emotional issues or panic seems extremely speculative.
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Quote Originally Posted by line_tamer:
Exactly! When Lynch landed at the end of the first down run there was 1:03 on the clock. When Wilson threw the pick there was 22 seconds on the clock. The OP insists that momentum is a myth but the pats were reeling and hawks had confidence. when carrol starts running wide outs in the game bill had the rights to sub under substitution rule and ref sits on the ball to allow him to sub and way too much time ran off the clock and Wilson panicked. Sad because I like Wilson but carrol needs to break out his checkbook and refund his salary.
Momentum is a myth. The Hawks had confidence and the Pats were reeling. How far did that get them? How far did it get the Pats when the situation was the exact reverse 1 minute prior? You skipped my earlier post but the message is still the same. The idea that just because one team had a good event happen recently, they are more likely to have another good event happen is simply not true. I know it goes against everything you've been taught about sports but momentum simply does not exist.
I am hardly the only one to notice this fact. Google "momentum myth" and you'll see many studies on this topic.
As far as "panicking" and running too much time off the clock, I just don't see it. I mean obviously he threw a bad pass but to chalk it up to emotional issues or panic seems extremely speculative.
Momentum is a myth. The Hawks had confidence and the Pats were reeling. How far did that get them? How far did it get the Pats when the situation was the exact reverse 1 minute prior? You skipped my earlier post but the message is still the same. The idea that just because one team had a good event happen recently, they are more likely to have another good event happen is simply not true. I know it goes against everything you've been taught about sports but momentum simply does not exist.
I am hardly the only one to notice this fact. Google "momentum myth" and you'll see many studies on this topic.
As far as "panicking" and running too much time off the clock, I just don't see it. I mean obviously he threw a bad pass but to chalk it up to emotional issues or panic seems extremely speculative.
Maybe you should call paul allen and see if you can have pete's job. You may be over qualified though?
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Momentum is a myth. The Hawks had confidence and the Pats were reeling. How far did that get them? How far did it get the Pats when the situation was the exact reverse 1 minute prior? You skipped my earlier post but the message is still the same. The idea that just because one team had a good event happen recently, they are more likely to have another good event happen is simply not true. I know it goes against everything you've been taught about sports but momentum simply does not exist.
I am hardly the only one to notice this fact. Google "momentum myth" and you'll see many studies on this topic.
As far as "panicking" and running too much time off the clock, I just don't see it. I mean obviously he threw a bad pass but to chalk it up to emotional issues or panic seems extremely speculative.
Maybe you should call paul allen and see if you can have pete's job. You may be over qualified though?
Most, if not all, of Seahawks completions were with space- where the receiver could adjust to the ball- don't recall a single completion (or pass) for that matter in traffic-
Play action, fade, rollout,are much more suitable-
Personally, I would have given it to Lynch, but I definitely see the other side -
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I have no problem with a pass on 2nd down-
I have a huge problem with the play selected-
Most, if not all, of Seahawks completions were with space- where the receiver could adjust to the ball- don't recall a single completion (or pass) for that matter in traffic-
Play action, fade, rollout,are much more suitable-
Personally, I would have given it to Lynch, but I definitely see the other side -
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
WORST. CALL. EVER.
Second worst call? You starting this thread. Stop arguing for the sake of arguing. It's better to shut your mouth and let people THINK you are dumb than to open it and let people KNOW you are dumb.
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
WORST. CALL. EVER.
Second worst call? You starting this thread. Stop arguing for the sake of arguing. It's better to shut your mouth and let people THINK you are dumb than to open it and let people KNOW you are dumb.
Maybe you should call paul allen and see if you can have pete's job. You may be over qualified though?
Pete Carroll is a forward thinking coach. Unfortunately, people are proving exactly why coaches tend to be risk averse. Many coaches actually are lowering their chances to win rather than to be criticized. Then they actually lose and the public goes batshit. Hello Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy, and Mike Smith.
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Quote Originally Posted by line_tamer:
Maybe you should call paul allen and see if you can have pete's job. You may be over qualified though?
Pete Carroll is a forward thinking coach. Unfortunately, people are proving exactly why coaches tend to be risk averse. Many coaches actually are lowering their chances to win rather than to be criticized. Then they actually lose and the public goes batshit. Hello Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy, and Mike Smith.
Pete Carroll is a forward thinking coach. Unfortunately, people are proving exactly why coaches tend to be risk averse. Many coaches actually are lowering their chances to win rather than to be criticized. Then they actually lose and the public goes batshit. Hello Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy, and Mike Smith.
I agree with your parents. You should have stayed in school.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gabbo:
Pete Carroll is a forward thinking coach. Unfortunately, people are proving exactly why coaches tend to be risk averse. Many coaches actually are lowering their chances to win rather than to be criticized. Then they actually lose and the public goes batshit. Hello Andy Reid, Mike McCarthy, and Mike Smith.
I agree with your parents. You should have stayed in school.
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