Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
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Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
With the rapid decline of coherency and common sense in America; and the fact that Katy Perry can make millions by looking fat and sounding like my garbage disposal the time when I accidentally dropped a beer bottle in it....this conclusion you drew up about that last sequence of plays might actually make sense in a few years.
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
With the rapid decline of coherency and common sense in America; and the fact that Katy Perry can make millions by looking fat and sounding like my garbage disposal the time when I accidentally dropped a beer bottle in it....this conclusion you drew up about that last sequence of plays might actually make sense in a few years.
Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
they also took their sweet behind time after the first down run.
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
they also took their sweet behind time after the first down run.
You don't know what you are talking about!! Beast ran 4 yards for first play. what makes you think he cannot run for 2 more yards, or wilson run it in?? 3 more downs man, burn more clock as well before doing something dumb!! Lynch can get 1 or 2 yards the entire game, so what are you talking about?? So what if NE knows they are running the beast
So everytime a run is 4 yards, that guarantees the next run will be at least 2? And I'm the one that doesn't know what he is talking about?
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Quote Originally Posted by 2001bmw:
You don't know what you are talking about!! Beast ran 4 yards for first play. what makes you think he cannot run for 2 more yards, or wilson run it in?? 3 more downs man, burn more clock as well before doing something dumb!! Lynch can get 1 or 2 yards the entire game, so what are you talking about?? So what if NE knows they are running the beast
So everytime a run is 4 yards, that guarantees the next run will be at least 2? And I'm the one that doesn't know what he is talking about?
they also took their sweet behind time after the first down run.
That was actually smart. They didn't want to give Brady too much extra time. Work out the probs in your own mind. They needed to guarantee that they could get 3 more plays in but leave no extra time. This was the best way to do that.
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Quote Originally Posted by podsox:
they also took their sweet behind time after the first down run.
That was actually smart. They didn't want to give Brady too much extra time. Work out the probs in your own mind. They needed to guarantee that they could get 3 more plays in but leave no extra time. This was the best way to do that.
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
HET DUMB AZZ YOU RUN THE BEST PLAYER THAT GOT YOU THIS FAR !!!!!! YOU ARE NOT THERE FROM WILSON 'S PASSING!!!! YOUR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DUMMEST F UCKERS ON THIS SITE TO MAKE THAT STATEMENT!!!!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
HET DUMB AZZ YOU RUN THE BEST PLAYER THAT GOT YOU THIS FAR !!!!!! YOU ARE NOT THERE FROM WILSON 'S PASSING!!!! YOUR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DUMMEST F UCKERS ON THIS SITE TO MAKE THAT STATEMENT!!!!!!!
I think you've all forgotten that Marshawn had already failed his previous 3rd and 1 attempts. There is no guarantee that he scores running the ball.
I'll grant that his chances of scoring a TD are around 70%, so if he gets 2 chances then his rate of success is about 85-90%, but there are no guarantees. And if he fumbles or there is a penalty (which is more likely on a goalline run play) that would be a killer there. You've confused outcome with expectation.
The fact that nearly everyone says Seattle should run it there, shows how unexpected a pass play would be. The defender made an amazing play. Think of it this way. Can you even name an interception on a goalline slant pass?
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I think you've all forgotten that Marshawn had already failed his previous 3rd and 1 attempts. There is no guarantee that he scores running the ball.
I'll grant that his chances of scoring a TD are around 70%, so if he gets 2 chances then his rate of success is about 85-90%, but there are no guarantees. And if he fumbles or there is a penalty (which is more likely on a goalline run play) that would be a killer there. You've confused outcome with expectation.
The fact that nearly everyone says Seattle should run it there, shows how unexpected a pass play would be. The defender made an amazing play. Think of it this way. Can you even name an interception on a goalline slant pass?
I think you've all forgotten that Marshawn had already failed his previous 3rd and 1 attempts. There is no guarantee that he scores running the ball.
I'll grant that his chances of scoring a TD are around 70%, so if he gets 2 chances then his rate of success is about 85-90%, but there are no guarantees. And if he fumbles or there is a penalty (which is more likely on a goalline run play) that would be a killer there. You've confused outcome with expectation.
The fact that nearly everyone says Seattle should run it there, shows how unexpected a pass play would be. The defender made an amazing play. Think of it this way. Can you even name an interception on a goalline slant pass?
Ding ding ding...
thats why its rigged
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Quote Originally Posted by Gabbo:
I think you've all forgotten that Marshawn had already failed his previous 3rd and 1 attempts. There is no guarantee that he scores running the ball.
I'll grant that his chances of scoring a TD are around 70%, so if he gets 2 chances then his rate of success is about 85-90%, but there are no guarantees. And if he fumbles or there is a penalty (which is more likely on a goalline run play) that would be a killer there. You've confused outcome with expectation.
The fact that nearly everyone says Seattle should run it there, shows how unexpected a pass play would be. The defender made an amazing play. Think of it this way. Can you even name an interception on a goalline slant pass?
That was actually smart. They didn't want to give Brady too much extra time. Work out the probs in your own mind. They needed to guarantee that they could get 3 more plays in but leave no extra time. This was the best way to do that.
it's not smart if it hinders the playcalling like pete admitted in postgame
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
That was actually smart. They didn't want to give Brady too much extra time. Work out the probs in your own mind. They needed to guarantee that they could get 3 more plays in but leave no extra time. This was the best way to do that.
it's not smart if it hinders the playcalling like pete admitted in postgame
Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
TWO DUMB F UCKERS IN ONE THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Runs from the 1 yard line aren't dramatically different than runs from the 2. If runs from the 2 were as automatic as everybody seems to think they are, why don't teams run for 2 point conversions all the time?
I will admit that the probability of success on 2nd down was higher with a run than a pass. But what everybody is missing is that the fact they only had 1 timeout really hurt their ability to run there.
Carroll made an error but the error was in wasting the two earlier timeouts. The calculus changed at that point.
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
Wilson should have never thrown it. Carroll will take the blame but the blame should obviously be on Wilson.
You try a pass and if it's wide open, you win. If not you have two chances to run it in from the one.
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
Wilson should have never thrown it. Carroll will take the blame but the blame should obviously be on Wilson.
You try a pass and if it's wide open, you win. If not you have two chances to run it in from the one.
HET DUMB AZZ YOU RUN THE BEST PLAYER THAT GOT YOU THIS FAR !!!!!! YOU ARE NOT THERE FROM WILSON 'S PASSING!!!! YOUR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DUMMEST F UCKERS ON THIS SITE TO MAKE THAT STATEMENT!!!!!!!
Thank you! you give it to the best player, not a stupid pass down the middle at the goal line!!
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Quote Originally Posted by middleman820:
HET DUMB AZZ YOU RUN THE BEST PLAYER THAT GOT YOU THIS FAR !!!!!! YOU ARE NOT THERE FROM WILSON 'S PASSING!!!! YOUR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DUMMEST F UCKERS ON THIS SITE TO MAKE THAT STATEMENT!!!!!!!
Thank you! you give it to the best player, not a stupid pass down the middle at the goal line!!
The play call should have been the zone read. The whole D would have been keying on Lynch. Ball fake, Wilson pulls it out and waltzes in. If Wilson sees he's gonna get hit, he gets down and calls TO or he throws it out of back of end zone. Carroll is an imbecile. He confirmed it in his interview.
AND, Lynch is a free agent. They just lost him. He scores, he's MVP. No way he re-signs after they showed they don't believe in him. Mark my words, they will spiral downwards from this.
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The play call should have been the zone read. The whole D would have been keying on Lynch. Ball fake, Wilson pulls it out and waltzes in. If Wilson sees he's gonna get hit, he gets down and calls TO or he throws it out of back of end zone. Carroll is an imbecile. He confirmed it in his interview.
AND, Lynch is a free agent. They just lost him. He scores, he's MVP. No way he re-signs after they showed they don't believe in him. Mark my words, they will spiral downwards from this.
I think you've all forgotten that Marshawn had already failed his previous 3rd and 1 attempts. There is no guarantee that he scores running the ball.
I'll grant that his chances of scoring a TD are around 70%, so if he gets 2 chances then his rate of success is about 85-90%, but there are no guarantees. And if he fumbles or there is a penalty (which is more likely on a goalline run play) that would be a killer there. You've confused outcome with expectation.
The fact that nearly everyone says Seattle should run it there, shows how unexpected a pass play would be. The defender made an amazing play. Think of it this way. Can you even name an interception on a goalline slant pass?
Finally somebody that understands. Seattle's likely 3 calls were Unexpected Pass. Somewhat Expected Run. Somewhat expected run.
If they ran, their calls would have been Expected Run. Expected Pass. Somewhat expected Run.
I have a hard time seeing how their probabilities were higher in the latter scenario. At the very least, it is a close call and I'm fairly certain they made the correct call.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gabbo:
I think you've all forgotten that Marshawn had already failed his previous 3rd and 1 attempts. There is no guarantee that he scores running the ball.
I'll grant that his chances of scoring a TD are around 70%, so if he gets 2 chances then his rate of success is about 85-90%, but there are no guarantees. And if he fumbles or there is a penalty (which is more likely on a goalline run play) that would be a killer there. You've confused outcome with expectation.
The fact that nearly everyone says Seattle should run it there, shows how unexpected a pass play would be. The defender made an amazing play. Think of it this way. Can you even name an interception on a goalline slant pass?
Finally somebody that understands. Seattle's likely 3 calls were Unexpected Pass. Somewhat Expected Run. Somewhat expected run.
If they ran, their calls would have been Expected Run. Expected Pass. Somewhat expected Run.
I have a hard time seeing how their probabilities were higher in the latter scenario. At the very least, it is a close call and I'm fairly certain they made the correct call.
They went for it in the first half with SIX SECONDS left , time was not a problem
What does that have to do with it? Its not the time of the play. Its the time the clock is running between plays. They had a timeout in the first half and would have called it immediately after any play where the clock didn't stop automatically. Very few plays last more than 5 seconds. That wasn't nearly as ballsy as it appeared to Collinsworth and Michaels who are frankly very weak tight.
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Quote Originally Posted by cubsin08:
They went for it in the first half with SIX SECONDS left , time was not a problem
What does that have to do with it? Its not the time of the play. Its the time the clock is running between plays. They had a timeout in the first half and would have called it immediately after any play where the clock didn't stop automatically. Very few plays last more than 5 seconds. That wasn't nearly as ballsy as it appeared to Collinsworth and Michaels who are frankly very weak tight.
Sorry Man, but if You were watching the game, you could see how Brady was Celebrating after the interception, he took it as a Miracle, as he Knows that at the 1 Yard Line with Marshall Lynch on 2nd Down, 26 Seconds to Play and a Timeout to take, Seattle was like a 1000 to 1 chances of winning the game.
That was the Dumpest Call of All Times, Run the Ball 2 Times, for a Reason You Have the Best Running Back on the Game, it was the Most Important Yard of the Year, Just 1 Yard, after the hundreds and hundreds he had runed all year long, plus he has Been Unestopable on this situations.
The other play available was the fake Run to Lynch and Wilson Keeping the Ball to Run to the EndZone, but always the Run.
Never a Pass, Never.
Pete Carrol just Give Away the SuperBowl, he totally Blowed with that Call.
Unbelievable!.
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Sorry Man, but if You were watching the game, you could see how Brady was Celebrating after the interception, he took it as a Miracle, as he Knows that at the 1 Yard Line with Marshall Lynch on 2nd Down, 26 Seconds to Play and a Timeout to take, Seattle was like a 1000 to 1 chances of winning the game.
That was the Dumpest Call of All Times, Run the Ball 2 Times, for a Reason You Have the Best Running Back on the Game, it was the Most Important Yard of the Year, Just 1 Yard, after the hundreds and hundreds he had runed all year long, plus he has Been Unestopable on this situations.
The other play available was the fake Run to Lynch and Wilson Keeping the Ball to Run to the EndZone, but always the Run.
Never a Pass, Never.
Pete Carrol just Give Away the SuperBowl, he totally Blowed with that Call.
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