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If you think Rex Ryan is leaving MetLife Stadium with anything less than a win, u r out of ur mind.

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Posts: 81

Ballerholic

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 145

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 12:36 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Fair enough Scal, just a few points.

1) Do you not think the Jets will be highly motivated for this game as well?

Not to the level Rex will have his players play. Red is not trying to kill his ex players, but the organization that made him a scapegoat for the Jets failures (which we know at its core was due to Idzick and his draft/trades/nonexistent offseason moves).

2) What do you think about the Jets having a better Defense than the Bills?

Won't be the case tomorrow. And that's all I care about.

3) Will Revis mark Watkins out of the game?

Absolutely not. Look at his statline last week and tell me Revis will shut that down.

4) Do you not think the line is a bit fishy at -2.5 for the Jets? Wouldn't anybody who looked at this game, seeing all of the injures, think the Bills +points would be the pick?

No. The books don't know what to do with this number. They know they have to make the Jets the favorite with the better record playing at home but it kills them to see all this Bills action that they will soon pay up for. In their heart of hearts, they'd probably like to have the bills as a -2/-2.5 or favorite to control the action. But sometimes they simply won't come off certain numbers like 3 and won't cross through 0 under any circumstances. It's gonna cost em tonight.

5) Could you attribute the Jets loss to the Raiders as a Patriots hangover? The Jets should have beaten the Patriots and then they suddenly forgot how to tackle? What about looking ahead to this matchup and underperforming Sunday?

No. Because the Jets win at the Jags was quite woeful and that was after the Raiders game where, if you believe Oakland was a letdown, they should have recovered with a 'gimmee' game. They should have beat them handily and tried to gift-wrap it to Jax. Jets were never looking ahead to Rex. They loved Rex and in all honesty the majority of them did not want to see him go.

Thanks for replying, and some very good points made. I already took the Bills earlier, but I reel a lot more reassured now. BOL

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Fair enough Scal, just a few points.

1) Do you not think the Jets will be highly motivated for this game as well?

2) What do you think about the Jets having a better Defense than the Bills?

Won't be the case tomorrow. And that's all I care about.

3) Will Revis mark Watkins out of the game?

Absolutely not. Look at his statline last week and tell me Revis will shut that down.

4) Do you not think the line is a bit fishy at -2.5 for the Jets? Wouldn't anybody who looked at this game, seeing all of the injures, think the Bills +points would be the pick?

Thanks for replying, and some very good points made. I already took the Bills earlier, but I reel a lot more reassured now. BOL

ari

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Posts: 756

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 12:41 PM ET #27

Jets fan here and agree with you 100% " Here is the bottom line: players play for him and they play doubly and triply as hard when it's a game he really wants. " , however, he's a bad game day coach.

The game is going to be close IMO opinion and can go either way. However, if its close at the end and Rex needs to make a head coaching decision, it's a guarantee lose.

JFelty

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 9507

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 12:46 PM ET #28

This game has been HAMMMMMMERED by buffalo backers. 90% of this forum are on the bills as well. Don't be surprised to see the Jets walk away with the W tonight. This game means just as much to them as it does to Rex. They want to stick it to him just the same. Public loves the idea of backing the revenge factor.... BOL

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 12:50 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by ari:

Jets fan here and agree with you 100% " Here is the bottom line: players play for him and they play doubly and triply as hard when it's a game he really wants. " , however, he's a bad game day coach.

The game is going to be close IMO opinion and can go either way. However, if its close at the end and Rex needs to make a head coaching decision, it's a guarantee lose.

He'll have enough separation in the score to avoid that. Plus the Bills have the Jets number in many ways, destroying them twice last year in what ultimately and ironically ending up causing Rex's dismissal. And in one of those games, the Bills had to go on the road to Detroit and couldn't practice all week because of a historic blizzard, and they still dealt Rex one of his worst loses of his career.

Believe me, when Rex was making a new career choice, those games mattered to him in regards to where he wanted to end up. And look, he's there now and it's time to pay the piper.

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 12:54 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by JFelty:

This game has been HAMMMMMMERED by buffalo backers. 90% of this forum are on the bills as well. Don't be surprised to see the Jets walk away with the W tonight. This game means just as much to them as it does to Rex. They want to stick it to him just the same. Public loves the idea of backing the revenge factor.... BOL

The Patriots are Hammmmmmered every week and come through with flying colors.

The public hammmmered the Eagles the past two weeks and they've covered both games.

In college football, Ohio state was hammmmmered in every way possible to cover against Rutgers and they destroyed them.

Golden State has been hammmmmered every night and they are still destroying teams, home or road, making spreads irrelevant.

This happens all the time and the public still wins in certain spots.

Nickel-Bets

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2015

Posts: 331

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 12:57 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Think your advanced metrics matter here?

My advanced metrics gave the nod to the Bills here, so... yeah?

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:03 PM ET #32

And just to add to that, why do you think the public keeps coming back?

Their square picks hit! They hit a lot, around 50% of the time. But because the public has no bankroll management, they end up as losers overall. But their record is far better than you think it is precisely because they hammer public favorites and they come through SOME of the time...like tonight.

pappadoc

All-Star

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Posts: 13606

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:04 PM ET #33

BOL SCAL

The_Mush_72

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 136

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:14 PM ET #34

I like over 41, spotty rain or not. I was all in on the over last week in the Jets/Jags game. I think Vegas is setting these totals on some of these teams past reputations, but both the Bills & Jets have been scoring a boatload of points this season.

here's what I found -

- in the 16 games both teams played this season, they've gone over the posted total of 41 in 9 of the 16 games

- in those 9 games, they've scored at least 50 in all of them - 62, 55, 55, 65, 50, 54, 53, 54, 51

- they've only gone under the 41 total in 3 of the 16 games, with 4 other games landing right on the mark of 41

- the average total for a Bills game this year is 48.6

- the average total for a Jets game this year is 45.25

I think people hear Bills/Jets, and just think defense because of years past, but both these teams are high scoring teams this year, and mostly play in high scoring games.

Took the over 41, but also teased it - over 35 & Virginia Tech +9.5

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:22 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by Nickel-Bets:

My advanced metrics gave the nod to the Bills here, so... yeah?

All the 'bettor'

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:26 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by The_Mush_72:

I like over 41, spotty rain or not. I was all in on the over last week in the Jets/Jags game. I think Vegas is setting these totals on some of these teams past reputations, but both the Bills & Jets have been scoring a boatload of points this season.

here's what I found -

- in the 16 games both teams played this season, they've gone over the posted total of 41 in 9 of the 16 games

- in those 9 games, they've scored at least 50 in all of them - 62, 55, 55, 65, 50, 54, 53, 54, 51

- they've only gone under the 41 total in 3 of the 16 games, with 4 other games landing right on the mark of 41

- the average total for a Bills game this year is 48.6

- the average total for a Jets game this year is 45.25

I think people hear Bills/Jets, and just think defense because of years past, but both these teams are high scoring teams this year, and mostly play in high scoring games.

Took the over 41, but also teased it - over 35 & Virginia Tech +9.5

If the line moves to 41.5 and you revise everything you said with 41.5 instead of 41, it's 9 overs and 7 unders which is essentially a coin flip.

The_Mush_72

Prospect

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Posts: 136

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:36 PM ET #37

True, but I still like the over more. I think people hear "rain" and automatically think under, and that's why the line is dropping.

Sometimes the weather leads to more turnovers and shorter fields. Both teams have very good run games, so I think they'll still move the ball, so I still like the over.

BOL Scal. I also would lean towards the Bills, but still think this game is a coin-flip, so I went with the total instead.

The_Mush_72

Prospect

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Posts: 136

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:40 PM ET #38

Also, if the line moves in the other direction, to 40.5 because of the rain, then I'm looking at 13 overs & 3 unders in the 16 games.

The_Mush_72

Prospect

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Posts: 136

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 1:44 PM ET #39

I live in Jersey. The forecast is for spotty showers, but there also might be periods of dry time. I think both teams will move the ball and get points. I still think people hear "rain" and overreact, thinking it has to be a low scoring game. I think that's why the total is dropping, but I'll take advantage of their overreaction if I can.

roastedpeanuts

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 632

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 4:44 PM ET #40

What do u consider a road game then. Buffalo is 9,hours away. We consider Buffalo Canada.

vanzack

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Posts: 60107

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 4:57 PM ET #41

GL Scal.

Keep up the good work.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

mrquija27

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 3117

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 5:39 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by lakers9:

I agree with almost everything you posted in your write-up. I grabbed the +3 earlier this week, and I'm gonna add some to the ML today. They are coming home with a win, and honestly, I think they go into Foxboro next Monday night and beat New England(crazy I know...) I live in bills country(not a fan, I'm not fan of any NFL team actually)...I watch and read about this team almost daily, they are ready for a run and it starts tonight. Good luck!

Started last week.

ILPRATO

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Posts: 5518

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 5:50 PM ET #43

key stat

Rex is 2-18 coming off a win in the last 20 games he has coached.

I like the jets here. Jets players will be extremely motivated to beat there former coach.

tsw

All-Star

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Posts: 12677

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 6:09 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

key stat

Rex is 2-18 coming off a win in the last 20 games he has coached.

I like the jets here. Jets players will be extremely motivated to beat there former coach.

Rex was also 21-11 coming off a win the 32 games before that.

The Jets are 4-20 coming off a win the last 24 times as well.

NinjaNight

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 5208

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 6:26 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by tsw:

Rex was also 21-11 coming off a win the 32 games before that.

The Jets are 4-20 coming off a win the last 24 times as well.

lawl

On a quest to be the very best

scalabrine

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Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 6:45 PM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by The_Mush_72:

Also, if the line moves in the other direction, to 40.5 because of the rain, then I'm looking at 13 overs & 3 unders in the 16 games.

Lol. Touche. Still that is a razor thin half point as your basis (and mine)...

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 6:46 PM ET #47

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

GL Scal.

Keep up the good work.

Hope this is one of your Supercontest picks!

scalabrine

Banned

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 6:51 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

key stat

Rex is 2-18 coming off a win in the last 20 games he has coached.

I like the jets here. Jets players will be extremely motivated to beat there former coach.

If that is your angle IL, that is contrary to reality and virtually everything in the OP.

The overwhelming majority of the Jets adored Rex. He was a player's coach.

In fact, at the end of the 2013 season, the Jets a 7-8 went into Miami and took out the Dolphins. Rex's job was on the line. The Jets fighting for nothing but Rex, beat the Fins who were still alive for the playoffs.

I watched the postgame celebration where all the players rallied around Rex and cheered when it was announced he was coming back for another year.

They LOVED the guy. This is not Pat Riley leaving the Knicks. Not by a longshot.

captainandseven

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Posts: 1980

Posted: Nov. 12, 2015 - 7:46 PM ET #49

Rex is a joke and so are your picks some defensive genius his team is ranked 16th most overrated coach around he will be shooting for a tv job in a few years because he is no head coach