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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    I need to win 2k on NFL today. Matter of life and death!

    12345 Next Last»
    JimmyGape
    BIGfnPOO
    trashbets
    WarrenAdams
    smacksmiter
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    12345 Next Last»
     
    JimmyGape
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 2:43 AM ET #1

    I have about 4500 available in a bookie account. Im down approximately 3500 on the week and I only have about 1100 dollars to pay the guy. Being late is not an option. Im not a stiff and will pay everything I lose but I DO NOT want to have to tell him I need more time to come up with the rest of the money. Not only is that absolutely humiliating but I will come across as a massive jerkoff.

    Honestly after some of the stuff I have been seeing lately and the horrifying beats I have endured part of me just wants to throw in the towel but that would mean I have to tell him I need more time to pay him.

    Yes I know this is a fucked up situation but I have been blindsided by car repairs and its been a brutal week. 

    If I could just win a little over 2k tomorrow I could pay him on time, and I still do have enough available to do that. 

    Im tempted to go big on a couple of 4 team 12 pt teasers (TIES LOSE) like this for 1k each. But if I were to lose I would be down 5K or so and that would be absolutely brutal. 

     

    Kind of like this tsr below...  Anyway, any thoughts, picks, or advice would be appreciated.

     

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    I have about 4500 available in a bookie account. Im down approximately 3500 on the week and I only have about 1100 dollars to pay the guy. Being late is not an option. Im not a stiff and will pay everything I lose but I DO NOT want to have to tell him I need more time to come up with the rest of the money. Not only is that absolutely humiliating but I will come across as a massive jerkoff.

    Honestly after some of the stuff I have been seeing lately and the horrifying beats I have endured part of me just wants to throw in the towel but that would mean I have to tell him I need more time to pay him.

    Yes I know this is a fucked up situation but I have been blindsided by car repairs and its been a brutal week. 

    If I could just win a little over 2k tomorrow I could pay him on time, and I still do have enough available to do that. 

    Im tempted to go big on a couple of 4 team 12 pt teasers (TIES LOSE) like this for 1k each. But if I were to lose I would be down 5K or so and that would be absolutely brutal. 

     

    Kind of like this tsr below...  Anyway, any thoughts, picks, or advice would be appreciated.

     

     
    JimmyGape
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 2:45 AM ET #2

    for some reason it wouldnt let me copy and paste the tsr

     

    its bucs + 19, patriots -1.5, rams -2, steelers +18

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    for some reason it wouldnt let me copy and paste the tsr

     

    its bucs + 19, patriots -1.5, rams -2, steelers +18

     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 2:46 AM ET #3

    ties lose so it might as well be bucs +18.5 and steelers +17.5

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    ties lose so it might as well be bucs +18.5 and steelers +17.5

     
    BIGfnPOO
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:02 AM ET #4

    money .line. parlay   cleve/colts for the whole load
    bigFnPOO
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    money .line. parlay   cleve/colts for the whole load
     
    JimmyGape
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:08 AM ET #5

    Max bet is 1000 to risk on a parlay but I do think both of those teams win tomorrow

    Even though betting on the Browns is scary 
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    Max bet is 1000 to risk on a parlay but I do think both of those teams win tomorrow

    Even though betting on the Browns is scary 
     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:10 AM ET #6

    Browns
    Colts
    Rams 
    Patriots

    4 tm ML parlay pays 812 risking 1k

    what if one of them lose though

    in a deeper hole

    lol gambling


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    Browns
    Colts
    Rams 
    Patriots

    4 tm ML parlay pays 812 risking 1k

    what if one of them lose though

    in a deeper hole

    lol gambling


     
    trashbets
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:17 AM ET #7

    6 team 6pt teaser:

    miami, Rams, Cowboys , Colts, vikes, Browns

    should hit, I give it higher than 75% chance. Tail at your own risk, by each of these teams has something to play for

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    6 team 6pt teaser:

    miami, Rams, Cowboys , Colts, vikes, Browns

    should hit, I give it higher than 75% chance. Tail at your own risk, by each of these teams has something to play for

     
    WarrenAdams
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:20 AM ET #8

    Pats, Browns, Colts

    10 pt. Teaser

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    Pats, Browns, Colts

    10 pt. Teaser

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:22 AM ET #9

    Jimmy...I have been exactly where you are right now many times in my life...it was never pleasant...but I do want you to understand I am speaking from personal experience...

    Never...and I mean never...was it ever a good idea to do a parlay, teaser or pleaser when I HAD to have a winner...not even once...

    You need to win 2k tomorrow...ok...single bets are the way to go hands down no doubt about it...but you need to plan your action carefully...

    There are 9 games on the early slot...3 late afternoon and one in the evening...I am guessing your week ends Sunday night like most do...

    With 9 games early, your strategy should be to select more from that grouping and  play them at lower levels...say...$500 each...2 to 4 games total...and look for opportunities at the halftime to add on another 1 or 2 winners...

    Personally, I would look for teams that have several particular features..

    1.  Good defense.
    2.  At home.
    3.  Still in playoff hunt.
    4.  DVOA advantage over opponent.
    5.  General advantage "Good team playing bad team at home".
    6.  Play vs teams on a downhill slide.

    Early games that fit these in my opinion...

    Dallas -7
    Indy -9

    This team doesn't have a good defense but meets the other criteria...

    N.E. Patriots -13.5

    These teams are NOT at home but meet the other criteria listed...

    Houston +2.5
    Minny -6

    Finally, this team doesn't have a good defense and is not at home but meets the other criteria...

    G.B. -3

    If I was you, I would pick out of these selections for the early games depending on what you like....personally, I do like Dallas and Indy quite a bit...either one of those defenses could completely shut down their opponent...Dallas should bounce back off the shutout last week and Indy has a great QB with a sneaky good defense...

    Do the same analysis for the later games and come up with more selections...

    On your teaser selections, I would be concerned about the BUCS and STEELERS...they could lose badly tomorrow and be outside of the big 17- 18 points...

    Good  luck!





    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Jimmy...I have been exactly where you are right now many times in my life...it was never pleasant...but I do want you to understand I am speaking from personal experience...

    Never...and I mean never...was it ever a good idea to do a parlay, teaser or pleaser when I HAD to have a winner...not even once...

    You need to win 2k tomorrow...ok...single bets are the way to go hands down no doubt about it...but you need to plan your action carefully...

    There are 9 games on the early slot...3 late afternoon and one in the evening...I am guessing your week ends Sunday night like most do...

    With 9 games early, your strategy should be to select more from that grouping and  play them at lower levels...say...$500 each...2 to 4 games total...and look for opportunities at the halftime to add on another 1 or 2 winners...

    Personally, I would look for teams that have several particular features..

    1.  Good defense.
    2.  At home.
    3.  Still in playoff hunt.
    4.  DVOA advantage over opponent.
    5.  General advantage "Good team playing bad team at home".
    6.  Play vs teams on a downhill slide.

    Early games that fit these in my opinion...

    Dallas -7
    Indy -9

    This team doesn't have a good defense but meets the other criteria...

    N.E. Patriots -13.5

    These teams are NOT at home but meet the other criteria listed...

    Houston +2.5
    Minny -6

    Finally, this team doesn't have a good defense and is not at home but meets the other criteria...

    G.B. -3

    If I was you, I would pick out of these selections for the early games depending on what you like....personally, I do like Dallas and Indy quite a bit...either one of those defenses could completely shut down their opponent...Dallas should bounce back off the shutout last week and Indy has a great QB with a sneaky good defense...

    Do the same analysis for the later games and come up with more selections...

    On your teaser selections, I would be concerned about the BUCS and STEELERS...they could lose badly tomorrow and be outside of the big 17- 18 points...

    Good  luck!





     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:23 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by trashbets:

    6 team 6pt teaser:

    miami, Rams, Cowboys , Colts, vikes, Browns

    should hit, I give it higher than 75% chance. Tail at your own risk, by each of these teams has something to play for


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    Quote Originally Posted by trashbets:

    6 team 6pt teaser:

    miami, Rams, Cowboys , Colts, vikes, Browns

    should hit, I give it higher than 75% chance. Tail at your own risk, by each of these teams has something to play for


     
    trashbets
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:29 AM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    Quote Originally Posted by trashbets:

    6 team 6pt teaser: miami, Rams, Cowboys , Colts, vikes, Browns should hit, I give it higher than 75% chance. Tail at your own risk, by each of these teams has something to play for

    lol hey nothing is guaranteed in NFL, but I’ve hit multiple 6 teasers this season, incl last week

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    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    Quote Originally Posted by trashbets:

    6 team 6pt teaser: miami, Rams, Cowboys , Colts, vikes, Browns should hit, I give it higher than 75% chance. Tail at your own risk, by each of these teams has something to play for

    lol hey nothing is guaranteed in NFL, but I’ve hit multiple 6 teasers this season, incl last week

     
    JimmyGape
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:36 AM ET #12

    Nice. Im just not sure if its got a higher than 75% chance of hitting lol. 

    Truth is, no 6 team teaser in the history of mankind has ever had higher than a 75% chance, but BOL nonetheless.
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    Nice. Im just not sure if its got a higher than 75% chance of hitting lol. 

    Truth is, no 6 team teaser in the history of mankind has ever had higher than a 75% chance, but BOL nonetheless.
     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:37 AM ET #13

    Can we really trust the Cleveland Browns

    My God is that what weve been reduced to

    I could totally picture them losing tomorrow for some reason

    Yes I know theyre improved and they have a good QB now 

    still scary tho

    They are still the Cleveland Browns
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    Can we really trust the Cleveland Browns

    My God is that what weve been reduced to

    I could totally picture them losing tomorrow for some reason

    Yes I know theyre improved and they have a good QB now 

    still scary tho

    They are still the Cleveland Browns
     
    JimmyGape
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:39 AM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Jimmy...I have been exactly where you are right now many times in my life...it was never pleasant...but I do want you to understand I am speaking from personal experience...

    Never...and I mean never...was it ever a good idea to do a parlay, teaser or pleaser when I HAD to have a winner...not even once...

    You need to win 2k tomorrow...ok...single bets are the way to go hands down no doubt about it...but you need to plan your action carefully...

    There are 9 games on the early slot...3 late afternoon and one in the evening...I am guessing your week ends Sunday night like most do...

    With 9 games early, your strategy should be to select more from that grouping and  play them at lower levels...say...$500 each...2 to 4 games total...and look for opportunities at the halftime to add on another 1 or 2 winners...

    Personally, I would look for teams that have several particular features..

    1.  Good defense.
    2.  At home.
    3.  Still in playoff hunt.
    4.  DVOA advantage over opponent.
    5.  General advantage "Good team playing bad team at home".
    6.  Play vs teams on a downhill slide.

    Early games that fit these in my opinion...

    Dallas -7
    Indy -9

    This team doesn't have a good defense but meets the other criteria...

    N.E. Patriots -13.5

    These teams are NOT at home but meet the other criteria listed...

    Houston +2.5
    Minny -6

    Finally, this team doesn't have a good defense and is not at home but meets the other criteria...

    G.B. -3

    If I was you, I would pick out of these selections for the early games depending on what you like....personally, I do like Dallas and Indy quite a bit...either one of those defenses could completely shut down their opponent...Dallas should bounce back off the shutout last week and Indy has a great QB with a sneaky good defense...

    Do the same analysis for the later games and come up with more selections...

    On your teaser selections, I would be concerned about the BUCS and STEELERS...they could lose badly tomorrow and be outside of the big 17- 18 points...

    Good  luck!






    Thanks for the input. Much appreciated and BOL to you.

    I really like the Colts to win tomorrow. Rams also. Patriots.

    I dont see any of those 3 losing. I think that would be a winning 3 team money line parlay.
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Jimmy...I have been exactly where you are right now many times in my life...it was never pleasant...but I do want you to understand I am speaking from personal experience...

    Never...and I mean never...was it ever a good idea to do a parlay, teaser or pleaser when I HAD to have a winner...not even once...

    You need to win 2k tomorrow...ok...single bets are the way to go hands down no doubt about it...but you need to plan your action carefully...

    There are 9 games on the early slot...3 late afternoon and one in the evening...I am guessing your week ends Sunday night like most do...

    With 9 games early, your strategy should be to select more from that grouping and  play them at lower levels...say...$500 each...2 to 4 games total...and look for opportunities at the halftime to add on another 1 or 2 winners...

    Personally, I would look for teams that have several particular features..

    1.  Good defense.
    2.  At home.
    3.  Still in playoff hunt.
    4.  DVOA advantage over opponent.
    5.  General advantage "Good team playing bad team at home".
    6.  Play vs teams on a downhill slide.

    Early games that fit these in my opinion...

    Dallas -7
    Indy -9

    This team doesn't have a good defense but meets the other criteria...

    N.E. Patriots -13.5

    These teams are NOT at home but meet the other criteria listed...

    Houston +2.5
    Minny -6

    Finally, this team doesn't have a good defense and is not at home but meets the other criteria...

    G.B. -3

    If I was you, I would pick out of these selections for the early games depending on what you like....personally, I do like Dallas and Indy quite a bit...either one of those defenses could completely shut down their opponent...Dallas should bounce back off the shutout last week and Indy has a great QB with a sneaky good defense...

    Do the same analysis for the later games and come up with more selections...

    On your teaser selections, I would be concerned about the BUCS and STEELERS...they could lose badly tomorrow and be outside of the big 17- 18 points...

    Good  luck!






    Thanks for the input. Much appreciated and BOL to you.

    I really like the Colts to win tomorrow. Rams also. Patriots.

    I dont see any of those 3 losing. I think that would be a winning 3 team money line parlay.
     
    JimmyGape
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:42 AM ET #15

    Bengals +10 seems solid. I dont see how the Browns are a 10 pt favorite.
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    Bengals +10 seems solid. I dont see how the Browns are a 10 pt favorite.
     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:43 AM ET #16

    The NYG are 6-1 ATS on the road this year.
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    The NYG are 6-1 ATS on the road this year.
     
    Titusblink
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:46 AM ET #17

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk?

    Just some friendly guidance

    Bol whatever you decide

    peace_5

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    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk?

    Just some friendly guidance

    Bol whatever you decide

    peace_5

     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:48 AM ET #18

    OK I see

    Andy Dalton is out thats why the Browns are -10
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    OK I see

    Andy Dalton is out thats why the Browns are -10
     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:49 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk?

    Just some friendly guidance

    Bol whatever you decide

    peace_5


    Interesting when you look at it that way isnt it. You pick 4 teams that should win but when you parlay them it becomes a longshot, even though for some reason it feels like it isnt lol.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk?

    Just some friendly guidance

    Bol whatever you decide

    peace_5


    Interesting when you look at it that way isnt it. You pick 4 teams that should win but when you parlay them it becomes a longshot, even though for some reason it feels like it isnt lol.

     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:51 AM ET #20

    That being said, the Rams have no chance of losing tomorrow to Arizona. Literally about 2%, if any.

    Steelers have probably about a 90% chance of winning.

    And I would say the Colts are about 78%
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    That being said, the Rams have no chance of losing tomorrow to Arizona. Literally about 2%, if any.

    Steelers have probably about a 90% chance of winning.

    And I would say the Colts are about 78%
     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:53 AM ET #21

    Sorry I meant Patriots, not Steelers

    Id say the Steelers have about a 23% chance of winning tomorrow
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    Sorry I meant Patriots, not Steelers

    Id say the Steelers have about a 23% chance of winning tomorrow
     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:54 AM ET #22

    Bucs look like a decent play +7
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    Bucs look like a decent play +7
     
    Titusblink
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:55 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk? Just some friendly guidance Bol whatever you decide
    Interesting when you look at it that way isnt it. You pick 4 teams that should win but when you parlay them it becomes a longshot, even though for some reason it feels like it isnt lol.

    And that is generous - I would say the odds are perhaps 80-85% for rams, 80-85% for pats, 70-75% for colts and 70% for cleveland of the top of my head, rough math... Taking the midpoints - the odds of hitting are 34/35%... You may hit - none of the bets look terrible  by themselves but too much variability to be gambling with $ you dont have in my opinion...

    Reply
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk? Just some friendly guidance Bol whatever you decide
    Interesting when you look at it that way isnt it. You pick 4 teams that should win but when you parlay them it becomes a longshot, even though for some reason it feels like it isnt lol.

    And that is generous - I would say the odds are perhaps 80-85% for rams, 80-85% for pats, 70-75% for colts and 70% for cleveland of the top of my head, rough math... Taking the midpoints - the odds of hitting are 34/35%... You may hit - none of the bets look terrible  by themselves but too much variability to be gambling with $ you dont have in my opinion...

     
    RagnarLothbrok
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:56 AM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    OK I seeAndy Dalton is out thats why the Browns are -10

    If you're just now finding this out, please stop gambling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    OK I seeAndy Dalton is out thats why the Browns are -10

    If you're just now finding this out, please stop gambling.

     
     
    Titusblink
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    Posted: Dec. 23, 2018 - 3:58 AM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk? Just some friendly guidance Bol whatever you decide
    Interesting when you look at it that way isnt it. You pick 4 teams that should win but when you parlay them it becomes a longshot, even though for some reason it feels like it isnt lol.
    And that is generous - I would say the odds are perhaps 80-85% for rams, 80-85% for pats, 70-75% for colts and 70% for cleveland of the top of my head, rough math... Taking the midpoints - the odds of hitting are 34/35%... You may hit - none of the bets look terrible  by themselves but too much variability to be gambling with $ you dont have in my opinion...

    Now watch it hit and you dont pull the trigger on my account.. I am sure you are a man and make your own decisions. Best of luck Jimmy peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

    Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

    First of all, we have all been down a similar tunnel just trying to make it back to breakeven, if you lose, you keep falling deeper... a logical move would be to stop gambling with $ you do not have.... but if you must please stop putting 4 teams together - look at each of the teams you are thinking of - look at how many losses each has.. If each of your four teams generously has an 80% chance to win - then your odds of hitting are .8^4 or 41% - are you ready to take that type of risk? Just some friendly guidance Bol whatever you decide
    Interesting when you look at it that way isnt it. You pick 4 teams that should win but when you parlay them it becomes a longshot, even though for some reason it feels like it isnt lol.
    And that is generous - I would say the odds are perhaps 80-85% for rams, 80-85% for pats, 70-75% for colts and 70% for cleveland of the top of my head, rough math... Taking the midpoints - the odds of hitting are 34/35%... You may hit - none of the bets look terrible  by themselves but too much variability to be gambling with $ you dont have in my opinion...

    Now watch it hit and you dont pull the trigger on my account.. I am sure you are a man and make your own decisions. Best of luck Jimmy peace_5

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