Posted:
#26
Just for the sake of argument, how much of a position by position advantage did Tennessee have over KC?
How many positions are the Chiefs better than the 49ers?
Posted:
#29
Nice writeup Andarmac...I agree with the points that you made...bravo. 
Chris Sims who is best pals with Kyle Shanahan since his college years had this to say: 'The 9ers had trouble this year with QBs who could create and go above and beyond the scheme like Russell Wilson twice and Lamar Jackson...this guy Mahomes can do that too.'
In that Falcons' game in Santa Clara, Julio Jones tore that SF secondary a new one. Of course JJ is a special talent in some ways.
You mentioned that Mahomes is an X factor but not the whole enchilada.
I would add that Bieniemy and Reid on offense and Spagnuolo on defense are a formidable brain trust as well (not a unique observation). Shanahan has his Father in on the game planning and IMO he was one of the best.
A lot of food for thought in this matchup... a lot to ponder...the line is razor thin but that doesn't mean that the final score will be. BOL
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by gooch72:
One thing not mentioned, is that elusive quarterbacks have given the Niners problems this year because it negates some of that great pass rush. Murray and Wilson specifically. Mahommes is pretty mobile as well, might be something to consider.
One thing not mentioned, is that elusive quarterbacks have given the Niners problems this year because it negates some of that great pass rush. Murray and Wilson specifically. Mahommes is pretty mobile as well, might be something to consider.
This is a myth perpetuated by the sports media, which I plan on deconstructing over the next 2 weeks.
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
Quote Originally Posted by gooch72:
One thing not mentioned, is that elusive quarterbacks have given the Niners problems this year because it negates some of that great pass rush. Murray and Wilson specifically. Mahommes is pretty mobile as well, might be something to consider.
This is a myth perpetuated by the sports media, which I plan on deconstructing over the next 2 weeks.One thing not mentioned, is that elusive quarterbacks have given the Niners problems this year because it negates some of that great pass rush. Murray and Wilson specifically. Mahommes is pretty mobile as well, might be something to consider.
even if it is true I do not see it being that big of an impact against Mahomes...
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
Max bet on San Fran for me. BUT....if you don't pressure Mahomes or let him free to run up the sidelines for twenty yards whenever he needs to, he will eat San Fran alive just like he did the last two teams he faced. We live in an age where dominant QB's are super dominant. I am betting that the San Fran defense is good enough to limit this superstar but that KC team isn't just Mahomes. Brilliant coach, speed demon wide receivers. So place your bets and enjoy the game. But the one key I will be watching is how much time Mahomes has to throw. If he has time to throw, worry, worry a lot.
Max bet on San Fran for me. BUT....if you don't pressure Mahomes or let him free to run up the sidelines for twenty yards whenever he needs to, he will eat San Fran alive just like he did the last two teams he faced. We live in an age where dominant QB's are super dominant. I am betting that the San Fran defense is good enough to limit this superstar but that KC team isn't just Mahomes. Brilliant coach, speed demon wide receivers. So place your bets and enjoy the game. But the one key I will be watching is how much time Mahomes has to throw. If he has time to throw, worry, worry a lot.
I'm not as worried about Mahomes scrambling as many people are. He had two games all year with more than 25 yards rushing before the last two weeks. And I think much of that ability to scramble comes from the Texans and Titans just being crap on the edge and at LB. That TD where he turned the corner on the Titans just isn't going to be available vs the 49ers. The 49ers have just too much speed on the edge and at LB.
Much being made of Lamar and Wilson running on SF. Wilson had 53 yards and 29 yards at 3.6 YPC. Jackson runs on everyone. And I believe Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander, who are some of the fastest players in the league at their positions, missed at least two of those games each.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Special shout out to the Covers reCAPTCHA and formatting. That is BRUTAL but the only I way I could post it. Maybe a mod could fix those posts and formatting?
Heres a suggestion on the "the reCAPTCHA code and formatting" when you do a lengthy write up type it separately in another app Notes then copy a short amount of your paragraphs & then Copy & paste into the Reply section before you press the "Submit" button, then when the reCaptcha code shows up in RED AGAIN Click the Submit button and it should form but in "short paragraphs only" It's a Pain in the a*s*s so doing long paragraphs is Time consuming *ugh whew does that make sense to you andermac I'm sure your smart enough to figure it out Andarmac one of the best on Covers bar none very impressive reading indeedSpecial shout out to the Covers reCAPTCHA and formatting. That is BRUTAL but the only I way I could post it. Maybe a mod could fix those posts and formatting?
Thanks for the advice Mac!
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by 4headies:
Just for the sake of argument, how much of a position by position advantage did Tennessee have over KC?
Just for the sake of argument, how much of a position by position advantage did Tennessee have over KC?
I'm not sure. I wasn't high on Tennessee at all. I think KC certainly had more advantages on defense than they do vs SF and in other areas they had massive edges. QB, WR, TE, and coaching were edges KC had that were gargantuan over the Titans.
Posted:
#38
Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper.
One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain.
Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by steve224:
My two cents, I am leaning under on this game. public perception two high powered offences also both teams coming off big overs with a high line , also I have noticed teams seem to be sluggish after being off for two weeks.
My two cents, I am leaning under on this game. public perception two high powered offences also both teams coming off big overs with a high line , also I have noticed teams seem to be sluggish after being off for two weeks.
Not to derail the thread but...
Last 7 games,
KC put up 31+ in 4 of those weeks, with 26 in the 5th highest scoring
SF put up 27+ in 4 of those weeks with 26 in the 5th highest scoring, the other 2 weeks? they lost.
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper. One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper. One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Funny you should mention this, as I just posted this in my thread earlier this afternoon:
KC has won and covered 8 straight, the longest cover streak entering SB since ‘85 Pats (14 before SB). In the 8, KC was favored 7 times and covered by an avg of 7 pts/game. Only ‘76 Pitt, ‘76 Bal, ‘68 Bal, ‘07 Pats had higher cover margins in streaks that long. None won SB.
Posted:
#42
I already took a position on this game.. my initial thoughts were the team with more overall balance will win.. My thoughts on the spread are that the spread won’t matter I don’t think it will hit a key number anyway.. the team that wins SU covers
FYI San Francisco 49ers:
#1 pass defense
Total defense
Total yards allowed #2
Offense
2nd in points per game KC behind SF49ers in 3rd
2nd In rushing behind Baltimore
2nd TDs per game
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
Posted:
#43
Few props popping up. Here's a fun one if you are a smaller bettor at 5Dimes and want to bet on SF:
SF wins by an odd margin of points +250
SF wins by an even margin of points +348
You can effectively lock in the SF ML for at least a +150 price, which is significantly better than what the actual ML is.
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
Interesting i never realized that the 1985 Patriots were spread monsters that year Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper. One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Funny you should mention this, as I just posted this in my thread earlier this afternoon: KC has won and covered 8 straight, the longest cover streak entering SB since ‘85 Pats (14 before SB). In the 8, KC was favored 7 times and covered by an avg of 7 pts/game. Only ‘76 Pitt, ‘76 Bal, ‘68 Bal, ‘07 Pats had higher cover margins in streaks that long. None won SB.Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper. One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Posted:
#50
SF can beat you in many ways - high scoring/low scoring - a big advantage in defense. Kc is a 1 trick pony - there defense will get badly exposed here. 49ers is the most consistent team all year. They could of gone 16-0 in the regular season. Take a look at San Francisco defense when they are fully healthy ? It was dam filthy- this game will not be closed- the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
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